covid-19

[billvon 2,396]

21 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Speculating, likely a result of virus spreading among younger population resulting in less hospitalizations.

Also - generally it takes some time (7 to 14 days) to progress from infection to ICU, and infections started spiking ~12 days ago.  

[jakee 1,254]

10 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

Found it - 

The comments say that they added the positive antibody tests to the positive case results.

You are probably right as well.

There is also lag.

Someone who is infected might be two weeks away from showing symptoms. Someone who shows symptoms might be 10 days away from needing hospitalisation.

It makes perfect sense that hospital admissions are not instantly tracking the same trend spike as positive test results. Hell, there'd be something really fucking strange going on if they did. It's really not that long ago since we went through the same thing with the initial pandemic spread, I'm surprised you've forgotten so quickly.

[kallend 1,623]

The EU is about to re-open to visitors.  The USA is NOT on the list.

In other news:

"Very encouraging news"; V.P. Pence at the task force meeting today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/26/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

Five states set daily highs for new coronavirus cases as U.S. passes 40,000 in a day for the first time

[Phil1111 910]

41 minutes ago, kallend said:

The EU is about to re-open to visitors.  The USA is NOT on the list.

In other news:

"Very encouraging news"; V.P. Pence at the task force meeting today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/26/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

Five states set daily highs for new coronavirus cases as U.S. passes 40,000 in a day for the first time

Baghdad had its Bob and Washington's liar in chief has his Pence.

[turtlespeed 212]

2 hours ago, billvon said:

Also - generally it takes some time (7 to 14 days) to progress from infection to ICU, and infections started spiking ~12 days ago.  

I didn't see where the number of antibody tests added to the new positive numbers is accounted for.

It seems strange to add those in now.

Edited June 26, 2020 by turtlespeed

[kallend 1,623]

More than 45,000 new cases were reported yesterday in the USA.

“We have made truly remarkable progress in moving our nation forward.  We’ve all seen the encouraging news as we open up.”; VP Mike Pence, also yesterday.

What are these guys smoking?

 

[timski 80]

4 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

From my recent post at Quora, the Q and A site:

Covid-19 and The Future? A Sci-Fi Author Gives it to You Straight

One thing about sci-fi writers is that sometimes they don’t WANT to give it to you straight. They would much rather be a politician, instead of telling you what they see down the road doesn’t look very good. I’m not here to promote my sci-fi efforts, so no links to my books. Let me just present what I see happening as a result of the current world situation and the Covid-19 pandemic.

These issues cover a lot of ground, so I will restrict my predictions to ten items that I think are either most likely to happen, or more important than others.

1. A severe recession is already here, and unlike some others we’ve endured, this one wasn’t caused by greedy bankers and dishonest mortgage companies…but by a virus. The unemployment rate is already the highest it’s been since the Great Depression, and although it will drop a bit after the virus passes, it could stay above ten percent for a long time. It could even get worse, depending on how many large companies end up going bankrupt due to Covid-19 losses. To compare this situation to something else, at the height of the Great Depression (around May 1931) the unemployment rate was estimated at 30% nationally and about 25% in urban areas. Some rural areas went as high as 50%. That’s beyond bad. Right now, we’re approaching 15% nationally with no real end in sight.
2. Over the next ten years, the biggest daily problem for a majority of people on a global scale will be the acquisition of clean water. We will run short of that long before we actually run out of food.
3. Back in 2000, Dr Martin Rees at Cambridge University released his book, Our Final Century. He meant THIS century. One point he stressed was that it wasn’t so much a nuclear war we should worry about, but the lack of fresh water, and a possible pandemic devastating the world economy. Just shows how some smart people can predict the future about as well as some lowly sci-fi writer.
4. The REAL result of climate change won’t be you having to buy additional air conditioners for your home. What climate change will actually do is cause mass migration of people, local wars, and worldwide famine. Taken to its extreme, it could force mapmakers to change the maps and eliminate any coastline or country not more than thirty feet above sea level. The really bad part is that a huge amount of the human population live near coastlines. This goes to the mass migration issue as well.
5. Our overuse of antibiotics is already having an effect worldwide. Instead of using them when we REALLY need them, too many people rush to the doctor for a prescription when they get the sniffles. The problem is now that if you get seriously sick and the only thing that can save you is a big booster shot of penicillin…it might not work anymore. This problem has been getting worse each year. The answer is to avoid their use unless you really need them. This includes all the other antibiotics out there, not just penicillin. I mentioned that one only because most people have heard of it.
6. They WILL develop a vaccine for Covid-19, and they WILL stop it in its tracks. But we should learn a lesson from this as well. The lesson is that we need to finance a much bigger effort to coordinate and control future pandemics - BEFORE they become a problem that kills so many people worldwide. We were under-prepared this time. We were caught sleeping on the job. Maybe next time we won’t be.
7. Despite what Dr Martin Rees says, I still see the use of nukes in some future war as a possibility, although I think he’s right when he says the risk is much lower than during the Cold War. If another world war comes along, and nukes are used, they will be used by the side who figures it’s the only way to win. If such a war were to happen, it will be for ONE reason and one reason ONLY: A fight over resources, not ideology.
8. When organizations tell you that you should do some minimal preparedness for this disaster, or that one…you should listen. Not that you will survive, but at least you could live long enough to figure out why everything went to hell. You deserve the satisfaction of knowing why it did.
9. If you harbor any ideas that mankind can survive simply by colonizing another planet, forget it. Earth is unique in our solar system, and the few places where technology might allow some people to survive come with unbelievable problems. Most of these problems have not been solved, and the best we can hope for is to save a few people. Maybe. Elon Musk will never be able to do what he promises, and any colony away from Earth would have to rely on re-supply from the home planet for decades before they could become self-sustainable. I once wrote a book about a first manned mission to Mars, and afterward I realized the truth about the whole ‘colonize Mars’ thing. We would be better off just colonizing Antarctica. At least you can breathe the air.
10. I do have some hope for mankind. I’m not completely negative on that issue. But I see three things that must be done. First, we must take worldwide and decisive action regarding climate change. Second, we have to move beyond burning fossil fuels for most of our energy needs. Third, we must take steps to slow population growth. If we actually pull off these goals as Earthlings, we still have a chance. If we don’t, Mother Earth will eventually teach us a lesson and those apocalyptic movies you watch will become Reality TV.

#6, The Obama admin. saw the need and Trump being such an incredibly stable genius that he is, dismantled THIS effort. (and so many more). 

#9, NO brainer, Elon, stop pissing away resources and punching holes in our ozone. 

#2, buy a water filter for "field use" and start prepping like life depends on it.  

[billvon 2,396]

6 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

From my recent post at Quora, the Q and A site:

Covid-19 and The Future? A Sci-Fi Author Gives it to You Straight

One thing about sci-fi writers is that sometimes they don’t WANT to give it to you straight. They would much rather be a politician, instead of telling you what they see down the road doesn’t look very good. I’m not here to promote my sci-fi efforts, so no links to my books. Let me just present what I see happening as a result of the current world situation and the Covid-19 pandemic.

These issues cover a lot of ground, so I will restrict my predictions to ten items that I think are either most likely to happen, or more important than others.

1. A severe recession is already here, and unlike some others we’ve endured, this one wasn’t caused by greedy bankers and dishonest mortgage companies…but by a virus. The unemployment rate is already the highest it’s been since the Great Depression, and although it will drop a bit after the virus passes, it could stay above ten percent for a long time. It could even get worse, depending on how many large companies end up going bankrupt due to Covid-19 losses. To compare this situation to something else, at the height of the Great Depression (around May 1931) the unemployment rate was estimated at 30% nationally and about 25% in urban areas. Some rural areas went as high as 50%. That’s beyond bad. Right now, we’re approaching 15% nationally with no real end in sight.
2. Over the next ten years, the biggest daily problem for a majority of people on a global scale will be the acquisition of clean water. We will run short of that long before we actually run out of food.
3. Back in 2000, Dr Martin Rees at Cambridge University released his book, Our Final Century. He meant THIS century. One point he stressed was that it wasn’t so much a nuclear war we should worry about, but the lack of fresh water, and a possible pandemic devastating the world economy. Just shows how some smart people can predict the future about as well as some lowly sci-fi writer.
4. The REAL result of climate change won’t be you having to buy additional air conditioners for your home. What climate change will actually do is cause mass migration of people, local wars, and worldwide famine. Taken to its extreme, it could force mapmakers to change the maps and eliminate any coastline or country not more than thirty feet above sea level. The really bad part is that a huge amount of the human population live near coastlines. This goes to the mass migration issue as well.
5. Our overuse of antibiotics is already having an effect worldwide. Instead of using them when we REALLY need them, too many people rush to the doctor for a prescription when they get the sniffles. The problem is now that if you get seriously sick and the only thing that can save you is a big booster shot of penicillin…it might not work anymore. This problem has been getting worse each year. The answer is to avoid their use unless you really need them. This includes all the other antibiotics out there, not just penicillin. I mentioned that one only because most people have heard of it.
6. They WILL develop a vaccine for Covid-19, and they WILL stop it in its tracks. But we should learn a lesson from this as well. The lesson is that we need to finance a much bigger effort to coordinate and control future pandemics - BEFORE they become a problem that kills so many people worldwide. We were under-prepared this time. We were caught sleeping on the job. Maybe next time we won’t be.
7. Despite what Dr Martin Rees says, I still see the use of nukes in some future war as a possibility, although I think he’s right when he says the risk is much lower than during the Cold War. If another world war comes along, and nukes are used, they will be used by the side who figures it’s the only way to win. If such a war were to happen, it will be for ONE reason and one reason ONLY: A fight over resources, not ideology.
8. When organizations tell you that you should do some minimal preparedness for this disaster, or that one…you should listen. Not that you will survive, but at least you could live long enough to figure out why everything went to hell. You deserve the satisfaction of knowing why it did.
9. If you harbor any ideas that mankind can survive simply by colonizing another planet, forget it. Earth is unique in our solar system, and the few places where technology might allow some people to survive come with unbelievable problems. Most of these problems have not been solved, and the best we can hope for is to save a few people. Maybe. Elon Musk will never be able to do what he promises, and any colony away from Earth would have to rely on re-supply from the home planet for decades before they could become self-sustainable. I once wrote a book about a first manned mission to Mars, and afterward I realized the truth about the whole ‘colonize Mars’ thing. We would be better off just colonizing Antarctica. At least you can breathe the air.
10. I do have some hope for mankind. I’m not completely negative on that issue. But I see three things that must be done. First, we must take worldwide and decisive action regarding climate change. Second, we have to move beyond burning fossil fuels for most of our energy needs. Third, we must take steps to slow population growth. If we actually pull off these goals as Earthlings, we still have a chance. If we don’t, Mother Earth will eventually teach us a lesson and those apocalyptic movies you watch will become Reality TV.

Mostly agree but a few specific comments:

"One thing about sci-fi writers is that sometimes they don’t WANT to give it to you straight. They would much rather be a politician, instead of telling you what they see down the road doesn’t look very good." - The author must not have read much sci-fi, then.  Dystopian future sci-fi is one of the biggest subgenres out there.

"They WILL develop a vaccine for Covid-19, and they WILL stop it in its tracks. " - They might but it's no certainty,  Keep in mind that we have been fighting malaria for centuries - and there's still no vaccine in sight.

 

[turtlespeed 212]

15 minutes ago, billvon said:

Mostly agree but a few specific comments:

"One thing about sci-fi writers is that sometimes they don’t WANT to give it to you straight. They would much rather be a politician, instead of telling you what they see down the road doesn’t look very good." - The author must not have read much sci-fi, then.  Dystopian future sci-fi is one of the biggest subgenres out there.

"They WILL develop a vaccine for Covid-19, and they WILL stop it in its tracks. " - They might but it's no certainty,  Keep in mind that we have been fighting malaria for centuries - and there's still no vaccine in sight.

 

Conspiracy theorist disagree - Big Pharm doesnt want to cure it - they want to treat it.

[billvon 2,396]

5 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

Conspiracy theorist disagree - Big Pharm doesnt want to cure it - they want to treat it.

Of course conspiracy theorists disagree.  They also think that the government is going to implant chips in your brain, then use 5G to scan and "temperature" you.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

On 6/25/2020 at 9:40 AM, BIGUN said:

There is some truth to that. On the day of George Floyd's Funeral Service; Trump said, "This is a great day for George Floyd."  At that point; I was like WTF?!?!? and was done as his interpreter. After much time and thought - I can and will hold to the Republican platform.. 

Please detail what you believe the Republican platform to be and which planks make a second Trump term worthwhile.

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

6 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Third, we must take steps to slow population growth.

Hi Robert,

An interesting read.

IMO the above is our most important problem.  Once we stabilize the size of the population, then we have some numbers to begin to tackle all of our problems.

Jerry Baumchen

[turtlespeed 212]

42 minutes ago, billvon said:

Of course conspiracy theorists disagree.  They also think that the government is going to implant chips in your brain, then use 5G to scan and "temperature" you.

In the brain? That's funny.

RFID chips . . .  not so much.  But think how easy it would be to track everyone!!

[airdvr 197]

16 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

In the brain? That's funny.

RFID chips . . .  not so much.  But think how easy it would be to track everyone!!

No need...we already have it with cell phones.

[turtlespeed 212]

2 hours ago, airdvr said:

No need...we already have it with cell phones.

Cell phones can be much more easily discarded.

[billvon 2,396]

2 hours ago, turtlespeed said:

Cell phones can be much more easily discarded.

Than what?

[wmw999 2,121]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

Than what?

Bill Gates’ chips, duh

Wendy P. 

[headoverheels 291]

Masks are for sheep.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XJFAFdHI44&feature=youtu.be

[Coreece 190]

11 hours ago, headoverheels said:

Masks are for sheep.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XJFAFdHI44&feature=youtu.be

"My friend on facebook said masks are bad, and he's a doctor. . .he works for Dr. Scholls. . .he works at a store that sells Dr.Scholls."

"You people think us maggots are stupid because we're dumb, well, I tell you one thing we're not, and that's sheep. . .you can see them leaving Walmart right now, there's one sheep right there, 2 sheep, 3 sheep, 4 sheep. . ." (falls asleep)

[Coreece 190]

19 hours ago, turtlespeed said:

Conspiracy theorist disagree

At this point I think we might need to acknowledge that there's a difference between conspiracy theorists and just being an idiot.

[kallend 1,623]

53 minutes ago, Coreece said:

At this point I think we might need to acknowledge that there's a difference between conspiracy theorists and just being an idiot.

Conspiracy theorists are a subset.

[kallend 1,623]

“We’ve all seen the encouraging news as we open up America again.”  V.P. Mike Pence, on Friday 6/26.

Later Friday, the United States recorded more than 40,000 new coronavirus cases — its largest one-day total.

[ryoder 1,384]

SMH

 

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

46 minutes ago, ryoder said:

SMH

 

Hi Robert,

And the hat tops it off nicely.

Jerry Baumchen

[Bigfalls 110]

On 6/27/2020 at 1:17 PM, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Robert,

An interesting read.

IMO the above is our most important problem.  Once we stabilize the size of the population, then we have some numbers to begin to tackle all of our problems.

Jerry Baumchen

I agree and have been saying this for some time.