covid-19

[SkyDekker 1,119]

9 minutes ago, airdvr said:

Because the size of the outbreak is significantly less.  You didn't read the last sentence.  I was wrong about the map but the map is based on national numbers, which are inflated by NY/NJ.

How would you know about the size of the outbreak if you are at the bottom of testing? Just feels about right?

[jakee 1,254]

36 minutes ago, airdvr said:

Most assessments of the amount of testing that will be needed over the next few months are national. But while those are a good starting point, they do not give individual states, let alone cities, much guidance. “You can’t just take the national number and scale it to states by their population,” said Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “You have to base it on the size of the outbreak in a state.”

Yes - and that's exactly why the map that you posted, that Ashish Jha designed, does not do that. The map that you posted does indeed base the number of tests required on the size of the outbreak in each state. As such, the map that you posted shows that Ohio is 11k tests per day behind a 14.5k test per day target.

Edited May 1, 2020 by jakee

[wolfriverjoe 1,339]

I would guess that with the level of awareness during this, everyone knows what the symptoms are. 

ANYONE who gets sick is going to pretty much automatically assume it's Covid and seek help. 
Unlike, say, the flu, where most people who get sick just stay home and wait it out. 

So the idea that there are large numbers of undetected cases isn't really logical.

There may well be decent numbers of infected people who aren't showing any symptoms, however.

Those people are being 'kept in check' by the lockdown. 

Once it gets lifted, those folks will go out and infect others. That will make the numbers skyrocket. 

Very few people who actually know what they are talking about are advocating lifting restrictions until widespread testing is in place. 
Just the business owners who are more afraid of losing business than infecting customers.
And the idiots with guns.

[billvon 2,379]

29 minutes ago, airdvr said:

Because the size of the outbreak is significantly less. 

And you know that because  . . . there's almost no testing!  An excellent circular argument, and indeed that was Trump's original plan for dealing with COVID-19.

 

[jakee 1,254]

1 minute ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I would guess that with the level of awareness during this, everyone knows what the symptoms are. 

ANYONE who gets sick is going to pretty much automatically assume it's Covid and seek help. 
Unlike, say, the flu, where most people who get sick just stay home and wait it out. 

That's not true. Most people who are symptomatic will not need treatment - not sure what the exact rules are around you but here normal people who develop symptoms are absolutely advised to self isolate - stay at home and wait it out. Most people with Covid 19 symptoms should not go to a doctor or a hospital. You should only seek help if you are classed as at risk, develop more serious symptoms, or the illness continues without  subsiding for 7 days.

Quote

There may well be decent numbers of infected people who aren't showing any symptoms, however.

There may well be massive numbers of those.

[wolfriverjoe 1,339]

5 minutes ago, jakee said:

That's not true. Most people who are symptomatic will not need treatment - not sure what the exact rules are around you but here normal people who develop symptoms are absolutely advised to self isolate - stay at home and wait it out. Most people with Covid 19 symptoms should not go to a doctor or a hospital. You should only seek help if you are classed as at risk, develop more serious symptoms, or the illness continues without  subsiding for 7 days.

There may well be massive numbers of those.

My understanding is that people who are showing symptoms are encouraged to contact their doc. 

Generally that is by phone or video conference call. They've put out a lot of announcements about not 'just showing up' at the doctor's office or emergency room. But they are strongly encouraging getting in contact and getting proper medical advice (and actual help if needed). 

Those who the doc (or his staff) think are likely to actually have Covid are often tested. They may or may not see a doctor, most don't go to the hospital. But they are the ones who get approved to be tested.

Around here, there is a decent amount of testing, but it's 'doctor directed'. You need a slip from a doc to go to a testing station. I couldn't just go to one and get tested for my own peace of mind. 
So testing of symptomatic people (the ones who contact a doc) is not lagging too much. I think (and I could be wrong on that) the numbers of infected and symptomatic people is reasonably accurate. 

However, to safely reopen, we need widespread testing. 

[wmw999 2,114]

32 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I would guess that with the level of awareness during this, everyone knows what the symptoms are. 

ANYONE who gets sick is going to pretty much automatically assume it's Covid and seek help. 
Unlike, say, the flu, where most people who get sick just stay home and wait it out. 

I know two people personally who have had it; they both only assume, because there aren't any tests. I didn't ask, but they probably did let their doctors know. Both are over 65 with a very healthy and active baseline, and both are OK now after a miserable couple of weeks. 

So saying they'll seek help is probably pushing it. That's also 100% of the people I know personally who have had it that I know of (well, except for anyone here on dz.com, or FB, etc.). If you don't have to go to the hospital, why would you seek help? There really isn't anything you can do besides wait it out.

Edit to add: one of them was contacted 2 weeks after recovery to let her know that there's a test available for her now .

Wendy P.

Edited May 1, 2020 by wmw999

[billvon 2,379]

42 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

ANYONE who gets sick is going to pretty much automatically assume it's Covid and seek help. 
Unlike, say, the flu, where most people who get sick just stay home and wait it out. 

?? We likely all had it; none of us sought help.  And there are likely a lot of people who got it with fewer symptoms than we had.

Keep in mind that people are avoiding primary care facilities, ER's and urgent care like the plague (literally) because they have heard there are a lot of sick people there.  Also keep in mind that if the police find someone dead in an apartment they go to the morgue - and they are not tested there.  

So it's likely to be significantly underreported.

[lummy 4]

 My anecdotal evidence is similar to Wendy's.  My step daughter and her fiance got really sick in March. Her Dr said it sounded like the flu and to self quarantine to be safe. After a week of being sick,  she was tested for Covid 19 and got her positive results back more than 2 weeks after she recovered. Her fiance was never tested

[gowlerk 1,901]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

?? We likely all had it; none of us sought help.  And there are likely a lot of people who got it with fewer symptoms than we had.

In NYC only 10% of the people tested show signs of having had it. (last I heard, was a week ago) I'm not sure what would make you believe that you have had it already. Am I misunderstanding you? Or by "we all" do you mean your family unit?

Edited May 1, 2020 by gowlerk

[billvon 2,379]

31 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Or by "we all" do you mean your family unit?

Yes, sorry, the four of us.

[JerryBaumchen 1,046]

16 hours ago, mistercwood said:

a) He didn't tell anyone specifically to inject themselves.

b) No media outlet is stating that he specifically told people to inject themselves - you've been corrected on this already.

c) Suggesting in a live broadcast that injection was a possibility worth investigating is the idea of a naive child or an adult moron.

d) Trump is 73.

Hi Tony,

I'll take 'naive child' for $400, Alex.

Jerry Baumchen

[JerryBaumchen 1,046]

13 hours ago, gowlerk said:

New word, trumps, not lies, trumps.

Hi Ken,

Two years I was watching a British tv cops/robbers show.  The cop says to the perp, 'Don't tell me any porkies.'

I finally figured out that 'porkies' was slang for lies.

A few months later I asked Derek Thomas, a Brit, about it.  He said it evolved from Pork Pie Lies.

And, now we Trumps.  Yee Haa

Jerry Baumchen

 

 

[kallend 1,619]

19 hours ago, airdvr said:

He's pontificating because he's feeling the damage to the economy, as are many others.  There needs to be some balance between flattening the curve and flattening the economy.

Today Dewine extended the stay at home order until June 1.  This is a huge blow to small businesses everywhere.  It's out of balance with what's actually happening in Ohio.

I understand the scenario of allowing people some additional freedoms and bringing on a second wave of infections.

So a few thousand more deaths are a small price to pay so businesses can open.

Pro-life takes second place to pro-business.

[kallend 1,619]

5 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Ken,

Two years I was watching a British tv cops/robbers show.  The cop says to the perp, 'Don't tell me any porkies.'

I finally figured out that 'porkies' was slang for lies.

A few months later I asked Derek Thomas, a Brit, about it.  He said it evolved from Pork Pie Lies.

And, now we Trumps.  Yee Haa

Jerry Baumchen

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhyming_slang

 

[turtlespeed 212]

17 hours ago, airdvr said:

I don't think it's so much not caring as it is self preservation.  Let's take a look at the current Ohio numbers

Population      11,646,273

Reported infections  - 18,027  % of population  .0015

Deaths - 975  % of population  0.00837

So the risk is extremely low here.  Opening the economy could cause a spike but we are nowhere near the projections of 45 days ago.

I was speaking to the general attitude I have witnessed personally.  A lot of people just don't want to and give a large amount of resistance to following the rules, and very little compliance with the suggestions.

A really good example is the population that STILL attends the beaches in California. 

Now the Governor of California  has singled out some beaches and will make attendance criminal.  People will still not really care and go anyway.

[ryoder 1,380]

Guardian: US germ warfare research leads to new early Covid-19 test

In what could be a significant breakthrough, project coordinators hope the blood-based test will be able to detect the virus’s presence as early as 24 hours after infection – before people show symptoms and several days before a carrier is considered capable of spreading it to other people. That is also around four days before current tests can detect the virus.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/us-germ-warfare-lab-creates-test-for-pre-infectious-covid-19-carriers?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

[wolfriverjoe 1,339]

On 5/1/2020 at 4:38 PM, billvon said:

?? We likely all had it; none of us sought help.  And there are likely a lot of people who got it with fewer symptoms than we had.

Keep in mind that people are avoiding primary care facilities, ER's and urgent care like the plague (literally) because they have heard there are a lot of sick people there.  Also keep in mind that if the police find someone dead in an apartment they go to the morgue - and they are not tested there.  

So it's likely to be significantly underreported.

Well, I'm not familiar with the situation out in CA, or by Wendy in MA, but here in WI, they are doing a reasonably comptent job of trying to stay on top of it. 
We've been on a fairly tight lockdown since March, and it is working pretty well.

None of the hospitals or health departments is totally overwhelmed. Busy as all hell, but mostly keeping up.

Confirmed cases are 'contact traced', then the people who were potentially infected are tested.
People who experience sypmtoms are encouraged to contact health care. Not to go, but to call or video conference (I posted this already). The health care folk decide what to do from there. 
There is a decent amount of testing going on, but it's 'doctor directed'. People who experience symptoms and call the doc get a slip to go get tested. They are doing a lot of 'drive thru' testing. Pull up in your car, roll the window down, get a swab stuck up your nose. A bit of info exchange and off you go.

The worst 'hot spot' right now is a couple of meat processors in Green Bay. They have a couple hundred confirmed cases and a lot more that were potentially exposed. 
A lot of the test kits are going to those places. 

I know that the hardest hit places aren't even trying to contact trace or even test all of the symptomatic people. 
I have heard that the numbers in New York City are likely way, way, way underrepported. For a while, the only 'confirmed dead' were those who had tested positive in a hosptial (the only places actually doing the testing). People who died at home, in the street, or even in the hospitial that died before they could be tested weren't counted. Some of those have now been included in the numbers, but it's still likely way low. 
I saw a scary story where the total numbers of deaths in NYC for March & April were looked at over the last ten years or so. Prior to this year, those numbers were very stable year to year. 
This year they are off the chart. 
This isn't the original story I read, but it's got the same basic info. NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

But, as I noted, WI is doing a decent job of keeping track of the numbers.

[wmw999 2,114]

Quote

When the Titanic sank, everyone wanted to blame someone. But in the end, they created the International Ice Patrol, and made worldwide safety rules that most countries agreed to, and ended up saving untold numbers of lives by those actions down the road.

It's the same thing with Covid-19 and pandemics in general. We got burned. We were hit square in the nose. We should learn from it so it doesn't happen again.

I think I love you...

Wendy P.

[jakee 1,254]

1 hour ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Sure, we have much better medical facilities than they did back in 1919, but right now there is no vaccine, no certified 'cure' for Covid. And the truth is that the world in general, with the exception of a few smart countries like New Zealand, did a piss-poor job jumping on this pandemic from the get-go. So it has spread far beyond what SARS did, for example. SARS killed less than a dozen people in the US, and caused less than a thousand deaths worldwide before they got a handle on it. If you look up SARS, it is classified as a Covid-type virus as well.

It is, but so are most common colds, and they're not a very good comparison either. Sars wasn't stopped because we dealt with it any better, it was stopped becase it's far, far easier to stop. Generally speaking you only catch Sars through exposure to someone who is seriously ill. These people are easy to isolate and trace. You catch Covid-19 from exposure to anyone who has it. Globally Sars wasn't dealt with any better than the current pandemic, in fact several major public health failings were exposed. Like with anything else though, because we got away lightly it didn't seem particularly important to fix those failings. Like with skydiving or any other risky activity, a massive potential learning opportunity unfortunately becomes another step in the normalisation of deviance.

[kallend 1,619]

6 hours ago, jakee said:

It is, but so are most common colds, and they're not a very good comparison either. Sars wasn't stopped because we dealt with it any better, it was stopped becase it's far, far easier to stop. Generally speaking you only catch Sars through exposure to someone who is seriously ill. These people are easy to isolate and trace. You catch Covid-19 from exposure to anyone who has it. Globally Sars wasn't dealt with any better than the current pandemic, in fact several major public health failings were exposed. Like with anything else though, because we got away lightly it didn't seem particularly important to fix those failings. Like with skydiving or any other risky activity, a massive potential learning opportunity unfortunately becomes another step in the normalisation of deviance.

As Wendy quotes in every one of her posts:
"There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)"

 

[wolfriverjoe 1,339]

8 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

...And the truth is that the world in general, with the exception of a few smart countries like New Zealand, did a piss-poor job jumping on this pandemic from the get-go. So it has spread far beyond what SARS did, for example. SARS killed less than a dozen people in the US, and caused less than a thousand deaths worldwide before they got a handle on it. If you look up SARS, it is classified as a Covid-type virus as well.

Now we're stuck with the results of Covid-19, and what will happen is probably some kind of recession afterward, even when we get a handle on it and can go back to some type of normal life. It sucks, it stinks, nobody likes it, and everybody is PISSED OFF. Everyone wants to point fingers, but it's hard to assign blame to just one leader, one government, one organization...

...Maybe instead of pointing fingers, it's better if we learn lessons from this and make sure we are better prepared next time. Nobody wants to go through this again.

A disease that anyone can catch, and that spreads so insidiously to others, is not a political issue. It affects everyone from top to bottom, rich or poor, Dem or GOP, vegan or bacon fan, whatever. It is a universal threat. It is a HUMAN threat...

I wish I had some magic answer, but I don't. We will have to get through this, and since we are left with few choices right now, the BEST way is to get through it TOGETHER. Pointing fingers now is well...pointless. And this is nowhere near CLOSE to sacrifices Americans have been asked to make in a national emergency. During WW2 they suspended certain rights, rationed food and fuel, and did a number of things that would seem crazy to people today. But it was necessary. Hundreds of thousands of Americans lost their lives. And it went on not for a few months, but four long years...

...It's the same thing with Covid-19 and pandemics in general. We got burned. We were hit square in the nose. We should learn from it so it doesn't happen again.

As was pointed out, this is vastly different from SARS. Closer to H1N1, but worse. Much more deadly. 

After SARS & H1N1, the US put in place a plan for the next pandemic and put a team togther. 

What happened? Trump threw the plan out and disbanded the team.

WE LEARNED FROM THE LAST ONE!!!

But the idiot in Chief chose to ignore the lessons. 

New Zealand, Australia & Germany have all done pretty decent jobs of dealing with this. 

Italy, Spain & Iran got hosed so bad because it made it there and started spreading widely before it was understood how bad it was. 

Here in the US, travel wasn't shut down, quarantine measures weren't put in place, the Mango Mussolini stood up and told fairy tales about how it would 'just go away'. 

So now we have the worst of it in the entire world. 

To say that 'it's hard to assign blame to just one leader' completely ignores Trump's culpability. His blatant incomptetence. His criminal stupidity. 

 

Of course the Rs are more concerned with the economy than people's lives. So they are pushing to reopen. 

And if we reopen, the 2nd wave of infections will make the last couple months look like a toddler with the sniffles.
We really aren't through with the first wave yet. Infections aren't down, they're increasing.

The Spanish Flu killed 50 million (estimated), not 20. About 80% of that was in the second wave.
It hit, people locked down, it started to get better and they opened back up...

And it hit in a second wave that was about 10 times worse.

If we reopen now, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see this last until fall...

Or later. 

But hey, the Alt Right feels they need to run around with rifles hanging off their shoulders, trying to intimidate lawmakers.

LIke terrorists. I've seen the term "Vanilla ISIS" around. Rather fitting.

[tonyhays 86]

50 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I've seen the term "Vanilla ISIS" around. Rather fitting

Y'all qaeda

[wmw999 2,114]

Quote

Here in the US, travel wasn't shut down, quarantine measures weren't put in place, the Mango Mussolini stood up and told fairy tales about how it would 'just go away'. 

So now we have the worst of it in the entire world. 

Problem is that only a few hot spots really have it bad. Which makes it easy for people to say "well, that's not the real America. I mean -- NYC? Boston? New Jersey? People make jokes about them. 

Just like people make jokes about hippies, yahoos, rednecks, and other fellow Americans.

Wendy P.

[Coreece 189]

47 minutes ago, tonyhays said:

1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I've seen the term "Vanilla ISIS" around. Rather fitting

Y'all qaeda

I don't care, that shit's funny.