covid-19

[gowlerk 1,904]

8 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Testing mainly allows the identification and profiling of hidden transmissions in a larger group of people.

Large scale testing both for infection and antibodies is the key to getting back to something like normal without just letting the pandemic run its course.

[Baksteen 84]

17 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

You have a poor understanding of the health care system and the specialties within it. Blanket testing serves to identify outliers that may be infectious and unknown to the tracking mechanisms.Lab techs who handle tests themselves don't develop vaccines. Thats reserved for the largest labs with dna sequencing and equipment to create new compounds, etc. Usually 1-3 universities or corporations per western country, plus China.

Testing mainly allows the identification and profiling of hidden transmissions in a larger group of people.

Actually, I *am* a lab technician involved in vcaccine research (though I am currently not involved with COVID-19). While it is absolutely true that technicians do not develop vaccines by themselves, they do perform the majority of the grunt work in all stages of production and (stability) testing. My point is that there are a limited number of qualified technicians available. Re-training them to do diagnostic testing means at least a portion of their time cannot be occupied with their regular field of work.

Also, if you read my entire post, you'll understand why I see little value in blanket testing.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Baksteen
clarification

[ryoder 1,381]

Iceland is doing random testing, and has tested 10% of their population so far:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/

50% of those tested positive didn't even know they were infected.

Edited April 16, 2020 by ryoder

[Phil1111 910]

2 minutes ago, Baksteen said:

Actually, I *am* a lab technician (though currently not involved with COVID-19). While it is absolutely true that technicians do not develop vaccines by themselves, they do perform the majority of the grunt work in all stages of production and (stability) testing. My point is that there are a limited number of qualified technicians available. Re-schooling them to do diagnostic testing means at least a portion of their time cannot be occupied with their regular field of work.

Also, if you read my entire post, you'll understand why I see little value in blanket testing.

piisfish's idea of testing entire populations regularly would certainly deal with the issue quickly. Its impractical. If you're a lab tech you certainly know that the few labs, likely under 40-50 in the entire world. That are currently working on vaccines don't worry about loosing technicians to testing mills in the current environment. They likely earn well above the average wage for that profession.

[Phil1111 910]

7 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Iceland is doing random testing, and has tested 10% of their population so far:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/

50% of those tested positive didn't even know they were infected.

Which makes finding active asymptomatic transmitters even more difficult. While simultaneously amplifying the need for expansive testing.

[Coreece 190]

13 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Iceland is doing random testing, and has tested 10% of their population so far

So that's about 36,000 tests total so far.  The U.S has been testing about 20,000+ per day.  No biggie, just saying.

 

18 minutes ago, ryoder said:

50% of those tested positive didn't even know they were infected.

It's be nice to get those antibody tests out there, especially for people that had even the slightest of symptoms or those that were in places we're they likely could've been exposed.

I read something yesterday that tho the tests exist, it'll probably be a couple more weeks or so for tests to be available for those that are just curious to know.

[ryoder 1,381]

1 minute ago, Coreece said:

So that's about 36,000 tests total so far.  The U.S has been testing about 20,000+ per day.  No biggie, just saying.

Iceland has tested 10% of its population, versus the US has tested 1%. No biggie, just saying.

[Baksteen 84]

19 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

piisfish's idea of testing entire populations regularly would certainly deal with the issue quickly. Its impractical.

Well, yes. That's what I was trying to say.

19 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

If you're a lab tech you certainly know that the few labs, likely under 40-50 in the entire world. That are currently working on vaccines don't worry about loosing technicians to testing mills in the current environment. They likely earn well above the average wage for that profession.

There is not much worry about people switching to testing mills, no. But the average pay (in my country at least) is not that much higher, just structured differently.

Starting out in the academic environment (including universities and hospitals) as I have, you may have a lower 'ceiling' but as an average employee you get there faster since salary increase is not performance based. Also, you get a 'thirteenth month' bonus at the end of the year.

In the commercial sector the end salary is a little higher and the job is more varied and challenging. The salary is performance based as are bonuses.
But the short of it is that noone becomes or remains a technician if status and money are big motivators in your career.

In a nutshell, when I made the switch from academic to commercial I got a job which is a lot more satisfying and varied, but the salary 'below the line' is pretty much the same.

[Coreece 190]

2 minutes ago, ryoder said:

4 minutes ago, Coreece said:

So that's about 36,000 tests total so far.  The U.S has been testing about 20,000+ per day.  No biggie, just saying.

Iceland has tested 10% of its population, versus the US has tested 1%. No biggie, just saying.

So you expect the U.S to test 328 million people just as fast as Iceland could test 360 thousand?  Ya that would be nice. 

[kallend 1,622]

2 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Iceland has tested 10% of its population, versus the US has tested 1%. No biggie, just saying.

Did  Iceland's prime minister (Katrin Jakobsdottir) waste  several weeks in active denial and ignoring experts while patting herself on the back?  (Asking for a friend).

[Phil1111 910]

4 minutes ago, Coreece said:

So you expect the U.S to test 328 million people just as fast as Iceland could test 360 thousand?  Ya that would be nice. 

You do understand scale of economies don't you? Or is that a rhetorical question?

[ryoder 1,381]

12 minutes ago, Coreece said:

So you expect the U.S to test 328 million people just as fast as Iceland could test 360 thousand?  Ya that would be nice. 

If the US has 911 times the population, then you could reasonably expect they would have 911 times as many health professionals, and 911 times the laboratory resources. Right?

[jakee 1,254]

12 minutes ago, ryoder said:

If the US has 911 times the population, then you could reasonably expect they would have 911 times as many health professionals, and 911 times the laboratory resources. Right?

I would actually say no, it’s not reasonable to expect the US to be able to ramp up testing ability proportionately as fast as Iceland. Partly due to the extra challenges that sheer geographical scale bring about. You would expect them to be able to be far closer to proportional equivalence than they currently are. And Coreece’s comparison of absolute numbers of tests is obviously irrelevant. 

[kallend 1,622]

36 minutes ago, Coreece said:

So you expect the U.S to test 328 million people just as fast as Iceland could test 360 thousand?  Ya that would be nice. 

Must be why Iceland got people on the Moon before the USA.  Small is nimble.

[gowlerk 1,904]

From Wiki on Iceland demographics:

99% of the nation's inhabitants live in urban areas (localities with populations greater than 200) and 60% live in the Capital Region.

 

Having a closely centred population as well as strong central government would make it the task far easier than in the USA. Even the largest US cities do not contain 10% of the people.

[piisfish 135]

Baksteen, it would achieve a more precise cartography of the spread of the virus and allow for more selective confinement. 

[jakee 1,254]

31 minutes ago, piisfish said:

Baksteen, it would achieve a more precise cartography of the spread of the virus and allow for more selective confinement. 

It seems to me that Baksteen is currently presenting a false dichotomy - either only test healthcare and key workers, or attempt to test everyone indiscriminately.

 

The countries that had the best early success in stopping the spread used contact tracing and targeted testing. Some amount of randomised screening, but mostly testing the people known to have been exposed to the infected, and as you say creating the opportunities to fully quarantine those found to be infected. A much better return per test than just throwing it out there at everyone. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by jakee

[turtlespeed 212]

1 hour ago, ryoder said:

Iceland has tested 10% of its population, versus the US has tested 1%. No biggie, just saying.

So what is your solution?  Reduce the population to equal Iceland, or Increase Iceland's to equal the US?

 

[Baksteen 84]

45 minutes ago, jakee said:

It seems to me that Baksteen is currently presenting a false dichotomy - either only test healthcare and key workers, or attempt to test everyone indiscriminately.

No, groups with increased risk only. That's

1) people who have symptoms as well as an underlying medical condition and/or old age

2) healthcare workers

Sorry that I can't explain clearly.

[Coreece 190]

52 minutes ago, jakee said:

The countries that had the best early success in stopping the spread used contact tracing and targeted testing. Some amount of randomised screening, but mostly testing the people known to have been exposed to the infected, and as you say creating the opportunities to fully quarantine those found to be infected. A much better return per test than just throwing it out there at everyone. 

The thing I think ryoder, kallend and Phil are missing is that even if we could test 328 million people over 3.5 million square miles as quickly as Iceland could test 360,000 over 40k square miles, should we?

The purpose for Covid testing is not to have a pissing contest with Iceland as if it were a space race.

[ryoder 1,381]

1 minute ago, Coreece said:

The thing I think ryoder, kallend and Phil are missing is that even if we could test 328 million people over 3.5 million square miles as quickly as Iceland could test 360,000 over 40k square miles, should we?

The purpose for Covid testing is not to have a pissing contest with Iceland as if it were a space race.

Iceland has found that 50% of those infected have no symptoms. Now who is most likely to be spreading it?

a) People sick at home.

b) People who feel fine and go on about their business?

[Phil1111 910]

33 minutes ago, Baksteen said:

No, groups with increased risk only. That's

1) people who have symptoms as well as an underlying medical condition and/or old age

2) healthcare workers

Sorry that I can't explain clearly.

 

9 minutes ago, Coreece said:

The thing I think ryoder, kallend and Phil are missing is that even if we could test 328 million people over 3.5 million square miles as quickly as Iceland could test 360,000 over 40k square miles, should we?

The purpose for Covid testing is not to have a pissing contest with Iceland as if it were a space race.

Everyone doesn't need to be tested. Its a waste of resources. The government of S. Korea was just re-elected even though they has a couple corruption scandals as baggage. Evidently voters recognized that they have done a good C-19 job.

1) Test front-line healthcare workers.

2) Test contacts who may be infected from diagnosed C-19 subjects. The first two most important.

3) Test front-line workers in senior and disabled homecare residences.

4) Test law enforcement, ambulance and fire dept personnel that are regularly interacting with infected persons.

5) Test business and occupations that have the highest contacts with the public. i.e. grocery cashiers, fast food employees with most frequent contact with public.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Phil1111

[Coreece 190]

10 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Iceland has found that 50% of those infected have no symptoms. Now who is most likely to be spreading it?

a) People sick at home.

b) People who feel fine and go on about their business?

So we'd all be expected to rush out of our homes to be tested and pack the nearest clinic just so we can have better numbers than Iceland?

Don't we have an app for this shit yet?

[Phil1111 910]

10 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Iceland has found that 50% of those infected have no symptoms. Now who is most likely to be spreading it?

a) People sick at home.

b) People who feel fine and go on about their business?

Good point. Someone sick at home whose health is not deteriorating. Doesn't need to be tested as long as they effectively self isolate. Even if they have C-19. A farmer in N. Dakota who never goes into town, never risks C-19. Asymptomatic c-19 carriers need to be identified by contact tracing. Which is as important as the testing itself. Likely more so.

A ambulance driver in N.Y. may need testing every couple days if they lack complete protective apparel. Lack effective cleaning of every part of the ambulance that could be exposed in the course of use.

[ryoder 1,381]

13 minutes ago, Coreece said:

So we'd all be expected to rush out of our homes to be tested and pack the nearest clinic just so we can have better numbers than Iceland?

Don't we have an app for this shit yet?

Where did I advocate rushing to the clinics?

In Iceland people can signup online. There is also the random program where the govt is contacting people to get tested.

BTW The company doing the testing is "deCODE genetics". You may have heard of its parent company: The US company Amgen.