covid-19

[airdvr 197]

47 minutes ago, jakee said:

But again, the death rate is irrelevant when it comes to knowing that there's potential for complete collapse of healthcare. Unless you're going to bet that the death rate is low enough that it's acceptable to not bother treating people.

How many sick people would collapse the healthcare system?

[aonsquared 9]

16 minutes ago, airdvr said:

How many sick people would collapse the healthcare system?

Found this link: https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

Total number of beds is 924,107.

If 60% of the US population gets infected, and 4.4% of those need hospitalisation, that's 8.6 million beds needed, about 10 times the number of beds the US actually has. If you're conservative and say 80% get infected, that's 11.5 million people needing hospitalisation.

[airdvr 197]

I was talking with my RN wife this morning about this very thing.  We live in Canton, OH.  There are 2 large hospitals in the city.  She estimates that between them there might be 75 ventilators.

[kallend 1,621]

9 hours ago, airdvr said:

We're quoting numbers with no real way of knowing if they are valid.  We don't know the total number of cases but we know the number of dead.  You can't quote percentages without both.

NYT 3/19.  I expect you'll consider it "fake".

It can take one to two weeks for a case to go from infection to diagnosis. The incubation time is thought to be five days, meaning it takes that long for symptoms to appear. It can take a few days for people with symptoms to get tested, depending on how informed they are about identifying symptoms, how eager they are to get tested (high health care costs or hassle factors can disincentivize testing when symptoms are mild) and their access to tests. Then another day or two for the results.

This lag, combined with the speed of the coronavirus’s spread (uncontrolled, the number of cases can double about every two days), means that the number of actual infections might be up to 128 times what they appear to be.

In other words, what looks like a handful of sick people might actually be a full-on outbreak. And what looks like a controllable outbreak might actually be well beyond the threshold of a public health disaster.

Countries do well when they assume as much, even if it initially looks like overreacting.

[normiss 620]

18 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

IMO the people that believe in him have such a narrow, firm set of political ideologies as to be a determent to normal democracy.

Today however he did finally do something right. Coronavirus Live Updates: Trump Invokes Law That Could Increase Supply of Ventilators and Masks

"Trump invokes the Defense Production Act to increase supplies of vital equipment.

President Trump moved Wednesday to send military hospital ships to areas hard-hit by the coronavirus and to invoke a law allowing the federal government to order American industry to produce critically-needed medical equipment.

The actions follow the Trump administration’s slow initial response to the global crisis that left the United States facing shortages of tests, hospital beds and equipment."

Waaaaay too late but better late than never.

But he later tweeted that he only signed the act "should we need to invoke it in a worst case scenario in the future. Hopefully there will be no need."

[BIGUN 1,049]

29 minutes ago, normiss said:

But he later tweeted that he only signed the act "should we need to invoke it in a worst case scenario in the future. Hopefully there will be no need."

"We'll be invoking the Defense Production Act, just in case we need it," Trump told reporters at a White House news conference. "It can do good things if we need it."

Hours later Trump signed an executive order formalizing that decision.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/18/818069722/trump-invokes-a-cold-war-relic-the-defense-production-act-for-coronavirus-shorta

[airdvr 197]

Because I'm bored and have nothing better to do...as of roughly Noon EST

https://ncov2019.live/data

I thought it would be interesting to see how population density figures into the numbers.  I'm not a statistician so I might be all wet here.  Please jump in and make corrections.

At first glance it appears that population density doesn't play as big a role as I expected.

Covid-19.xlsx

[gowlerk 1,903]

17 minutes ago, airdvr said:

At first glance it appears that population density doesn't play as big a role as I expected.

Are you looking at country population density? If so, that could be deceiving. The average density in Canada is very low. But the Toronto area is pretty high. If population density is not playing a big role that would indicate that precautions being taken are working at least somewhat.

[airdvr 197]

I'm not bored enough to break it down by city.  Maybe someone is.

 

The numbers for Canada and Australia are extremely close.

Edited March 19, 2020 by airdvr

[gowlerk 1,903]

17 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

I've been saying this non-stop. For example, BillVon's a genius why is he allowed to have a normal day to day life while we're fretting about this stuff? That makes no sense. Time to round up these slackers, I say, and set them to work!

 

16 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Fine. But I want names, home addresses and cell phone numbers so I can keep up on progress. As it is now I have to wander from brewery to brewery looking for BillVon to get answers and that's not right.

Here is a pretty good accounting of the efforts being made towards a vaccine. Still no accounting for billvon's lack of input into a solution. He may be involved in a secret program. I hope your brewery tour can continue in these trying times.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/when-will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

[yoink 321]

17 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

 

These scientists need to get off their dead butts, work together, receive whatever funding and assistance they require to beat this thing...and frickin' FAST. You cannot put the world on hold forever. 

I'm sure telling them to 'hurry up, this is important!' is probably a big help to them. They probably they hadn't figured that one out. And right now they're working a fuck load harder than you are. Dead butts, indeed.

The reality is that you have no idea what it takes to analyze a virus, develop and then test vaccines, and then mass produce and deliver it. It's not a question of funding or assistance. The government COULD potentially waive certain FDA checks and trials that are usually done, but the risk is that you inoculate a population with something that's dangerous and could potentially kill MORE people than the virus itself. That risk/benefit is a big call.

 

Stick to your writing and your camping.

 

[ryoder 1,381]

9 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

 

Here is a pretty good accounting of the efforts being made towards a vaccine. Still no accounting for billvon's lack of input into a solution. He may be involved in a secret program. I hope your brewery tour can continue in these trying times.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/when-will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

Oh, for chrissake! Keep that idiot Boris out of the labs!!!

BTW Human trials began Monday in Seattle:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-vaccine.html

[gowlerk 1,903]

7 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Oh, for chrissake! Keep that idiot Boris out of the labs!!!

I'm pretty sure he was only there briefly for a photo op and that his sorry ass will not be back soon.

[Phil1111 908]

Redefining leadership hour by hour.

‘We’re not a shipping clerk’: Trump tells governors to step up efforts to get medical supplies

"President Donald Trump on Thursday put the onus on governors to obtain the critical equipment their states need to fight the coronavirus pandemic, telling reporters that the federal government is “not a shipping clerk” for the potentially life-saving supplies.

Appearing at the daily press briefing of the White House coronavirus task force, the president defended his decision to invoke the Defense Production Act — which would allow the administration to direct U.S. industry to ramp up production of emergency medical provisions — without actually triggering the statute..

Despite those measures, the Trump administration has not completed a comprehensive assessment to determine the full scope of supplies that will need to be ordered, according to current and former administration officials, and his invoking the DPA does not do anything to increase production of those items. "

‘At War With No Ammo’: Doctors Say Shortage of Protective Gear Is Dire

"With coronavirus cases soaring, doctors, nurses and other front-line medical workers across the United States are confronting a dire shortage of masks, surgical gowns and eye gear to protect them from the virus.

In interviews, doctors expressed soaring anxiety, fearing they could expose not only themselves to the virus, but their families and others. "

Edited March 19, 2020 by Phil1111

[BIGUN 1,049]

16 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

"President Donald Trump on Thursday put the onus on governors to obtain the critical equipment their states need to fight the coronavirus pandemic, telling reporters that the federal government is “not a shipping clerk” for the potentially life-saving supplies.

It just amazes me how I can watch the entire speech and then see it get twisted and out of context in the written media for an obvious agenda. What he said was [paraphrase] The states need to be able to go directly to the suppliers for medical equipment instead of through the federal government. We don't need to be a shipping clerk for the states. They need to go directly to the source. [/paraphrase]

Damn. No bias in Politico.  

[wmw999 2,116]

Thanks for that. 

Wendy P. 

[Phil1111 908]

1 hour ago, BIGUN said:

It just amazes me how I can watch the entire speech and then see it get twisted and out of context in the written media for an obvious agenda. What he said was [paraphrase] The states need to be able to go directly to the suppliers for medical equipment instead of through the federal government. We don't need to be a shipping clerk for the states. They need to go directly to the source. [/paraphrase]

Damn. No bias in Politico.  

It seems to me that the president can order 24 hour a day production of needed equipment and supplies using the Defense Production Act. Governors have no such authority. They have the ability to buy from out of state suppliers the same as a hospital or corporate buyer. The President can order supplies be sent to the US State, or hospital in need. Rather than the fulfillment of orders from non-medical buyers from both inside and outside the US.

In addition the president can order companies with productive capabilities to immediately produce needed medical supplies. Governors have no such lawful provisions.In addition the federal government can direct supplies to the most needed regions. Rather than individual governors buying in excess of their needs while other states needs go unfulfilled.

There are shortages. There is no all out production of equipment to meet that need. ONLY federal law has the power of the Defense Production Act.It seems as if national co-ordination is better than ad-hoc pursuit of limited supplies by 55 states and territories. This is aside of course the president ordering the scouring of the US military for supplies. From all military supply depo's. Which no state governor would have access to.

Why would he sign this act if he had no intent of implementing it to fulfill the shortage of needed medical equipment? Do you honestly think that presidential co-ordination of the aforementioned act. Means that these supplies would have to be shipped twice? Shipped to two different locations, rather than from the manufacturer directly to the hospital in need?

Edited March 20, 2020 by Phil1111

[normiss 620]

15 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

It seems to me that the president can order 24 hour a day production of needed equipment and supplies using the Defense Production Act. Governors have no such authority. They have the ability to buy from out of state suppliers the same as a hospital or corporate buyer. The President can order supplies be sent to the US State, or hospital in need. Rather than the fulfillment of orders from non-medical buyers from both inside and outside the US.

In addition the president can order companies with productive capabilities to immediately produce needed medical supplies. Governors have no such lawful provisions.In addition the federal government can direct supplies to the most needed regions. Rather than individual governors buying in excess of their needs while other states needs go unfulfilled.

There are shortages. There is no all out production of equipment to meet that need. ONLY federal law has the power of the Defense Production Act.It seems as if national co-ordination is better than ad-hoc pursuit of limited supplies by 55 states and territories. This is aside of course the president ordering the scouring of the US military for supplies. From all military supply depo's. Which no state governor would have access to.

Why would he sign this act if he had no intent of implementing it to fulfill the shortage of needed medical equipment? Do you honestly think that presidential co-ordination of the aforementioned act. Means that these supplies would have to be shipped twice? Shipped to two different locations, rather than from the manufacturer directly to the hospital in need?

You're mistakenly thinking of what a President that leads a country does in times of national emergencies.

Instead, we have Trump.

[gowlerk 1,903]

14 minutes ago, normiss said:

You're mistakenly thinking of what a President that leads a country does in times of national emergencies.

Instead, we have Trump.

In his mind there are no National Emergencies. Only Donald Trump emergencies. It is hard to conceive of a more selfish person than DJT. But hey, greed is good.

[Phil1111 908]

1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

In his mind there are no National Emergencies. Only Donald Trump emergencies. It is hard to conceive of a more selfish person than DJT. But hey, greed is good.

IMO he wants to be seen as a president at war. To enjoy the photo op's. press conferences, etc. Naturally he has Pence as the fall guy, good thinking on his behalf. If it all goes wrong. Because its a war footing and emergency he can bail out his corporate buddies who come to the WH cap in hand.Paying appropriate homage to him first of course. Disperse the helicopter cash directly to voters in a election year.

But the dirty, gritty detail work of national co-ordination to address national needs. Is something a errand boy does. If he thought he wouldn't get dirty. Picture him throwing out masks and gloves to doctors and patients. For a nice photo op. Like the paper towels he threw in Puerto Rico

Make us ventilators to fight coronavirus, UK asks Ford and Rolls Royce

"Britain has asked manufacturers including Ford (F.N), Honda (7267.T) and Rolls Royce (RR.L) to help make health equipment including ventilators to cope with the coronavirus outbreak and will look at using hotels as hospitals....

Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to more than 60 manufacturing businesses and organizations to ask them to help step up the production of “vital medical equipment” such as ventilators for the National Health Service, a spokeswoman for his Downing Street office said.

“The Prime Minister made clear that responding to coronavirus and reducing the spread of the peak requires a national effort,” the spokeswoman said.'

Canadian auto suppliers in talks to build ventilators, masks during coronavirus crisis

"Canadian automotive industry leaders and government officials are attempting to strike commercial agreements with medical device companies to redeploy their idled production lines to make ventilators, masks and other vital equipment to treat people affected by the coronavirus....

Canadian automotive industry leaders and government officials are attempting to strike commercial agreements with medical device companies to redeploy their idled production lines to make ventilators, masks and other vital equipment to treat people affected by the coronavirus.... Current discussions include whether autoparts companies can be licensed to produce the equipment, alongside a purchasing commitment from the Canadian government. Canada also has a federal stockpile of equipment that it has been distributing as requested to the provinces, Hajdu said.

Manufacturers in France and elsewhere have been shifting operations to produce items such as hand sanitizers, masks and other protective gear. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has urged automakers to pull together as they did during the Second World War, saying they “cannot make too many” ventilators. "

Edited March 20, 2020 by Phil1111

[timski 80]

On 3/18/2020 at 3:11 PM, Phil1111 said:

IMO the people that believe in him have such a narrow, firm set of political ideologies as to be a determent to normal democracy.

Today however he did finally do something right. Coronavirus Live Updates: Trump Invokes Law That Could Increase Supply of Ventilators and Masks

"Trump invokes the Defense Production Act to increase supplies of vital equipment.

President Trump moved Wednesday to send military hospital ships to areas hard-hit by the coronavirus and to invoke a law allowing the federal government to order American industry to produce critically-needed medical equipment.

The actions follow the Trump administration’s slow initial response to the global crisis that left the United States facing shortages of tests, hospital beds and equipment."

Waaaaay too late but better late than never.

You typed that believing Trump had ANYTHING to do with that decision making process. Other than occupying the same room... Come on man.  "I mean, this is really big stuff, big ships, with a lot of band aids, coming to a really big city. This is big stuff".  ~Best President evah. 

[JoeWeber 2,294]

1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

IMO he wants to be seen as a president at war. To enjoy the photo op's. press conferences, etc. Naturally he has Pence as the fall guy, good thinking on his behalf. If it all goes wrong. Because its a war footing and emergency he can bail out his corporate buddies who come to the WH cap in hand.Paying appropriate homage to him first of course. Disperse the helicopter cash directly to voters in a election year.

But the dirty, gritty detail work of national co-ordination to address national needs. Is something a errand boy does. If he thought he wouldn't get dirty. Picture him throwing out masks and gloves to doctors and patients. For a nice photo op. Like the paper towels he threw in Puerto Rico

Make us ventilators to fight coronavirus, UK asks Ford and Rolls Royce

"Britain has asked manufacturers including Ford (F.N), Honda (7267.T) and Rolls Royce (RR.L) to help make health equipment including ventilators to cope with the coronavirus outbreak and will look at using hotels as hospitals....

Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to more than 60 manufacturing businesses and organizations to ask them to help step up the production of “vital medical equipment” such as ventilators for the National Health Service, a spokeswoman for his Downing Street office said.

“The Prime Minister made clear that responding to coronavirus and reducing the spread of the peak requires a national effort,” the spokeswoman said.'

Canadian auto suppliers in talks to build ventilators, masks during coronavirus crisis

"Canadian automotive industry leaders and government officials are attempting to strike commercial agreements with medical device companies to redeploy their idled production lines to make ventilators, masks and other vital equipment to treat people affected by the coronavirus....

Canadian automotive industry leaders and government officials are attempting to strike commercial agreements with medical device companies to redeploy their idled production lines to make ventilators, masks and other vital equipment to treat people affected by the coronavirus.... Current discussions include whether autoparts companies can be licensed to produce the equipment, alongside a purchasing commitment from the Canadian government. Canada also has a federal stockpile of equipment that it has been distributing as requested to the provinces, Hajdu said.

Manufacturers in France and elsewhere have been shifting operations to produce items such as hand sanitizers, masks and other protective gear. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has urged automakers to pull together as they did during the Second World War, saying they “cannot make too many” ventilators. "

Phil, please, enough with the million word cut and pastes. Any yo, or Huffington Post, can do that. Instead, read it, analyze it and tell us your interpretation in a few words. This crap is boring.

[skymiles 3]

The Trump administration anticipated and planned for a pandemic in 2019 but Trump fired all the high level officials that knew about it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/coronavirus-outbreak-a-cascade-of-warnings-heard-but-unheeded/ar-BB11pYY1?li=BBnb7Kz

[kallend 1,621]

On Thursday, Trump said that two existing drugs may be effective remedies and that the Food and Drug Administration is fast-tracking them to market. 

The head of the FDA said neither is a proven treatment for COVID-19 and neither is likely to be publicly available in the near future.

Whom to believe?

[DJL 232]

12 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

It seems to me that the president can order 24 hour a day production

My question is, why are we even talking about this.  We have a Corona Tzar and Program director that should be able to very clearly tell us the roll-out and process instead of having to listen to Trump get defensive every time he opens his mouth.