covid-19

[sfzombie13 307]

On 2/27/2020 at 12:01 PM, gowlerk said:

I'm not advocating panic. But this statistic that I keep hearing about the flu is meaningless. We have a good grip on the death rate from influenza. IF covid-19 becomes as common as influenza, and IF the death rate remains at the current best guesstimate of 2 to 3 % it has the potential to kill at least 10 times the number.

i hate to jump in on a story so far in like this, but having just returned from sfo and the rsa conference, i have some things to add that are pertinent.  like the death toll reported here.  it may be accurate (it comes from china who are actively censoring their information so it could be wrong), but it is also taking into account that their hospitals are already over capacity and their treatments are stretched to almost nothing since they have exhausted most of their supplies (at least they had last time i heard about it out there thursday).  the rest of the world had about a .06% fatality rate when taken without the chinese added. 

knowing that the masks that most people wear are not effective at stopping the virus, i was laughing at most of the folks walking around with noses sticking out or rubbing their noses after pulling the mask down.  my boss made me take the mask i was wearing off since it had a hole cut in it for my mouth.  it may indeed keep one from touching one's face, but only when used properly.  it was interesting watching all the hype and counting how many cases were new, but when they started saying it was spreading and they didn't know how, that is bullshit.  we were about 30 miles from travis afb, and the new case in antioch was right up the road.  they say she didn't have contact with anyone who was infected, but then after finding out that the first responders handling the quarantined passengers taken to andrews didn't have the proper ppe or training, it isn't too hard to figure out that one of them carried it to a neighbor and it spread from there, not to mention that infected passengers were flown with non-infected passengers on the same plane. 

but then with pence involved and not letting accurate information come out, we may never get that piece put in the puzzle no matter that i just told you all how it happened.  i hope i don't have it, but i can tell you right now it did not stop me from driving to yolo county airport and jumping twice.  i also doubt that it has a longer incubation period than normal, especially due to all the unrestricted travel (big shout out to all they folks over at skydance).  it is just getting around a lot more than they know about and it looks like a longer incubation period. 

[sfzombie13 307]

On 2/27/2020 at 12:01 PM, gowlerk said:

I'm not advocating panic. But this statistic that I keep hearing about the flu is meaningless. We have a good grip on the death rate from influenza. IF covid-19 becomes as common as influenza, and IF the death rate remains at the current best guesstimate of 2 to 3 % it has the potential to kill at least 10 times the number.

i hate to jump in on a story so far in like this, but having just returned from sfo and the rsa conference, i have some things to add that are pertinent.  like the death toll reported here.  it may be accurate (it comes from china who are actively censoring their information so it could be wrong), but it is also taking into account that their hospitals are already over capacity and their treatments are stretched to almost nothing since they have exhausted most of their supplies (at least they had last time i heard about it out there thursday).  the rest of the world had about a .06% fatality rate when taken without the chinese added. 

knowing that the masks that most people wear are not effective at stopping the virus, i was laughing at most of the folks walking around with noses sticking out or rubbing their noses after pulling the mask down.  my boss made me take the mask i was wearing off since it had a hole cut in it for my mouth.  it may indeed keep one from touching one's face, but only when used properly.  it was interesting watching all the hype and counting how many cases were new, but when they started saying it was spreading and they didn't know how, that is bullshit.  we were about 30 miles from travis afb, and the new case in antioch was right up the road.  they say she didn't have contact with anyone who was infected, but then after finding out that the first responders handling the quarantined passengers taken to andrews didn't have the proper ppe or training, it isn't too hard to figure out that one of them carried it to a neighbor and it spread from there, not to mention that infected passengers were flown with non-infected passengers on the same plane. 

but then with pence involved and not letting accurate information come out, we may never get that piece put in the puzzle no matter that i just told you all how it happened.  i hope i don't have it, but i can tell you right now it did not stop me from driving to yolo county airport and jumping twice.  i also doubt that it has a longer incubation period than normal, especially due to all the unrestricted travel (big shout out to all they folks over at skydance).  it is just getting around a lot more than they know about and it looks like a longer incubation period. 

[airdvr 197]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

There are places in Appalachia and the deep south and parts of the southwest of the USA that are pretty 3rd world too.

As are places in Chiraq perfesser.

[Phil1111 908]

14 hours ago, Coreece said:

 

Upon reflection I believe I owe you a full apology. If we were face to face I would not call you personally stupid and its foolish on my part to label trump supporters stupid. I don't believe all trump supporters are stupid.

IMO self interest, fear and other factors drive their decisions. But clearly you're offended and put off by the broad brush of adjectives I use to describe trump. Then paint his voters with that same brush. Thats foolish and wrong.For that I apologize to those that support him.

IMO trump is the embodiment of evil. Sometimes my opinions of him get labeled on those who have the right of democracy and free opinion to support him. His supporters need not nuance differences between him and his actions. From the real reasons why they support him.

Many years ago I used to believe Greenpeace, anti-war activists, anti-gun activists, etc. were stupid. Today I know better.

Feel free to correct me again should I fall into the weak trap of demonizing trump supporters. Of falsely labeling their absence of character because trump has none.

[kallend 1,621]

28 minutes ago, airdvr said:

As are places in Chiraq perfesser.

So you admit that your comments about parts of Mexico apply equally to parts of the  the USA.  

 

[airdvr 197]

36 minutes ago, kallend said:

So you admit that your comments about parts of Mexico apply equally to parts of the  the USA.  

 

Not equally, but there are certain areas in the US that are comparable.

[Coreece 189]

1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

Upon reflection I believe I owe you a full apology.

Nah, no worries Phil.  And in the future I'll try to respond to you with more substantive replies.   

Seriously tho, welcome back.

Cheers!

Edited March 1, 2020 by Coreece

[billvon 2,384]

4 hours ago, sfzombie13 said:

 the rest of the world had about a .06% fatality rate when taken without the chinese added. 

That's because no place other than China has had it for very long.  It is not immediately fatal.

Quote

  i hope i don't have it, but i can tell you right now it did not stop me from driving to yolo county airport and jumping twice.

Are you sick?  If not then no worries.

[turtlespeed 212]

On 2/29/2020 at 8:31 PM, Phil1111 said:

Your ego is only matched by your foolishness. If you imagine a period of time that anyone is not here reading your drivel. Arises from anything you come up with.

Then you are in mindstep with your stupid friend. Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration

Well, hello, Pot . . . Have you met Kettle yet?

[turtlespeed 212]

17 hours ago, billvon said:

That's because no place other than China has had it for very long.  It is not immediately fatal.

 

Likely a lot of the infected are not even reporting the illness.

I know I don't go call the CDC if I get the flu.  I just deal with it.

[sfzombie13 307]

18 hours ago, billvon said:

That's because no place other than China has had it for very long.  It is not immediately fatal.

Are you sick?  If not then no worries.

my mask stopped me from getting it.  not worried in the slightest.

[Phil1111 908]

19 hours ago, billvon said:

That's because no place other than China has had it for very long.  It is not immediately fatal.

Are you sick?  If not then no worries.

"A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time. ^[9]

A previous study had found that, out of 41 admitted hospital patients, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.^[5].

The Wang et al. February 7 study published on JAMA found that the median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days.^[9]

Previously. the China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.^[6]

People are making a serious mistake to think that China medical care for the virus is fundamentally defective or poor.

Here are the latest stats for Italy. Which has a health care system the full equal to the US.

In Italy, the head of the country’s civil protection agency has confirmed the death toll now stands at 34, five more than a yesterday, while the number of infections has risen 50% to 1,694.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate

The WHO or someone like JAMA is the place to get facts. Not trump, the White House or Fox News(not directed at yourself obviously).

The largest factor influencing the published mortality rates are the number of tests done. asymptomatic Covid-19 carriers likely never get diagnosed, in most cases. In Iran, sanctions and a poor medical care system likely result in dramatic under reporting. Mostly due to lack of diagnosis capacity. But politics also influences disclosed figures.

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by Phil1111

[DJL 232]

On 2/29/2020 at 1:01 PM, billvon said:

Sometimes liberals need ammo, sometimes conservatives need science - even if those groups often oppose those things.  I suspect a lot of conservatives are going to get suddenly supportive of medical science in the coming weeks.

I wonder what the barter exchange rate is on a used AR-15 for a bag of flour.

[Phil1111 908]

On 3/1/2020 at 9:29 AM, sfzombie13 said:

....  my boss made me take the mask i was wearing off since it had a hole cut in it for my mouth. ...

Too funny, You're boss didn't order some sort of ???? as a result of that?

[sfzombie13 307]

8 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Too funny, You're boss didn't order some sort of ???? as a result of that?

we are engaged, and i wore the mask all day at the rsa conference, so there is that.  just a nod to the ineffectiveness of the us response to a potential crisis.  this one is impossible to stop the spreading of with a 14 day incubation period and symptoms that mimic a common cold or flu.  no way to test anyone before traveling that are exposed and/or carriers, not to mention that they aren't even trying yet in the us.

[sfzombie13 307]

18 minutes ago, DJL said:

I wonder what the barter exchange rate is on a used AR-15 for a bag of flour.

with a still functioning ar, you don't need to exchange it for the flour...as long as you still have ammo.

[airdvr 197]

46 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

"A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time. ^[9]

A previous study had found that, out of 41 admitted hospital patients, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.^[5].

The Wang et al. February 7 study published on JAMA found that the median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days.^[9]

Previously. the China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.^[6]

People are making a serious mistake to think that China medical care for the virus is fundamentally defective or poor.

Here are the latest stats for Italy. Which has a health care system the full equal to the US.

In Italy, the head of the country’s civil protection agency has confirmed the death toll now stands at 34, five more than a yesterday, while the number of infections has risen 50% to 1,694.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate

The WHO or someone like JAMA is the place to get facts. Not trump, the White House or Fox News(not directed at yourself obviously).

The largest factor influencing the published mortality rates are the number of tests done. asymptomatic Covid-19 carriers likely never get diagnosed, in most cases. In Iran, sanctions and a poor medical care system likely result in dramatic under reporting. Mostly due to lack of diagnosis capacity. But politics also influences disclosed figures.

 

The problem with the numbers is they don't call out (other than age) the condition of the infected person prior to being infected.  As I said before those with compromised systems (respiratory and/or cardiac) are at the most risk of death.  Advanced age also plays into the formula.

[sfzombie13 307]

24 minutes ago, airdvr said:

The problem with the numbers is they don't call out (other than age) the condition of the infected person prior to being infected.  As I said before those with compromised systems (respiratory and/or cardiac) are at the most risk of death.  Advanced age also plays into the formula.

the huge problem is that we don't know the actual infection rate, as most healthy people present with symptoms of a cold and ignore being tested, then will recover.  another issue is the unrestricted travel of everyone, at least in the us, and that the incubation period is up to two weeks.  no way to test everyone and carriers can go a long way with no symptoms.  good thing it isn't that deadly.  we'd all be screwed.

[billvon 2,384]

 

45 minutes ago, airdvr said:

The problem with the numbers is they don't call out (other than age) the condition of the infected person prior to being infected.  As I said before those with compromised systems (respiratory and/or cardiac) are at the most risk of death.  Advanced age also plays into the formula.

Doesn't matter too much when it comes to comparing fatality rates.  ALL diseases infect sick and healthy people alike, so when you compare fatality rates to (say) the flu, that factor is already incorporated into the percentages in both cases.

Now, if you want to know what YOUR risk is (and that of your cohort) then of course it matters.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

On 3/1/2020 at 6:17 AM, airdvr said:

I've been to Mexico many times.  And not just the resorts.  This isn't a dig at Mexicans, it's the reality that much of the country outside of the major metropolitan areas is 3rd world and I'm quite sure there are many, many places that might not have a doctor who would know what to report, much less whether he/she was dealing with covid-19.

With more than 80% of the population in urban areas, that's probably not much of a problem.

[Phil1111 908]

1 hour ago, sfzombie13 said:

with a still functioning ar, you don't need to exchange it for the flour...as long as you still have ammo.

Such a common view for preppers. I plan on acquiring many AR-15's should society go zombie because I have a Accuracy International .300wm with conventional and thermal optics.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

Wonder what US healthcare is going to charge patients for COVID19 testing? Wonder if that is going to stop people from seeking healthcare?

[DJL 232]

Just now, SkyDekker said:

Wonder what US healthcare is going to charge patients for COVID19 testing? Wonder if that is going to stop people from seeking healthcare?

I think the US has a pre-existing condition regarding the ability to provide healthcare to Americans.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

17 minutes ago, DJL said:

I think the US has a pre-existing condition regarding the ability to provide healthcare to Americans.

Also sounds like CDC put a very high threshold on availability of the test. meaning many did not get tested. The province of BC alone has tested more people than the entire US.

The COVID19 deaths in Washington would also indicate the infection rate is significantly higher than currently known, unless the state is a statistical anomaly. So far there are clear signs the response in the US has been completely bungled in the early stages.

[millertime24 8]