Just a reminder

[JerryBaumchen 967]

12 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

To give some more perspective,

Hi Brent,

About 20+ yrs ago, I was reading an article about Saudi oil production.  In the article, the then Saudi Oil Minister said that the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks.

Jerry Baumchen

[brenthutch 363]

26 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Brent,

About 20+ yrs ago, I was reading an article about Saudi oil production.  In the article, the then Saudi Oil Minister said that the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks.

Jerry Baumchen

No it was just because bronze became more usefull, and did more with less.  As soon as rainbows and unicorn farts (solar, wind and by extension, EVs) can do more with less, the sun will set on the era of fossil fuels, until then...well you know. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by brenthutch

[olofscience 370]

8 hours ago, brenthutch said:

As far as your prediction, I don't recall you mentioning a pandemic as being the cause.

Still better than your track record of predictions

Quote

Tesla produced 102,672 vehicles in the first quarter of 2020 and delivered 88,400 vehicles to customers, the company announced to investors on Thursday. While the delivery number is down from the previous quarter, the overall results were better than analysts had expected, sending Tesla's stock up more than 10 percent in after-hours trading.

Funny that with all your trolling, you still haven't shorted Tesla's stock. Surely with such a high value now it has no way to go but down? Go and short!

[brenthutch 363]

3 hours ago, olofscience said:

Still better than your track record of predictions

Funny that with all your trolling, you still haven't shorted Tesla's stock. Surely with such a high value now it has no way to go but down? Go and short!

I own high end rentals in college towns and lease them to professors, I am no longer in the market.

[SkyDekker 995]

13 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I thought you said by the second month.  As far as your prediction, I don't recall you mentioning a pandemic as being the cause.  You said it was the record high stock market, the record low unemployment, inverse yield curve and hundreds of thousands of new jobs that would plunge us into recession.  No mention of COVID19.  But I am sure if I point out Telsa's horrible Q1 results you will be blaming a virus.

• I always said second quarter. This is the second time I have had to correct this for you.
• Those are signals not causes. I have said things like: US has never been able to maintain record employment without tumbling into a recession. This statement continues to be true.
• Tesla's horrible Q1 results have nothing to do with Covid. They are also not a sign of bankruptcy, which was your prediction.

It is very telling this post, which clearly shows you lack an ability to understand what you are reading, comes after you once again posting an article which you didn't understand.

[brenthutch 363]

17 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

• I always said second quarter. This is the second time I have had to correct this for you.
• Tesla's horrible Q1 results have nothing to do with Covid. They are also not a sign of bankruptcy, which was your prediction.

 

Can you link to where you said second quarter?

My prediction was that Tesla would go bankrupt in five years (now three years).  Tesla's horrible Q1 results were from a drop in demand caused by the reduction of subsidies (just like I predicted)

Edited April 3, 2020 by brenthutch

[billvon 2,078]

15 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

About 20+ yrs ago, I was reading an article about Saudi oil production.  In the article, the then Saudi Oil Minister said that the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks.

But rocks are cheap!  And only rich out of touch elites can afford bronze.  It's a fad that will disappear once government subsidies for bronze swords go away.  Rocks have worked for centuries; real people use rocks.

[SkyDekker 995]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Can you link to where you said second quarter?

My prediction was that Tesla would go bankrupt in five years (now three years).  Tesla's horrible Q1 results were from a drop in demand caused by the reduction of subsidies (just like I predicted)

here you go

I guess maybe it wasn't clearly stated enough for you to remember?

[brenthutch 363]

Given that the definition of Recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, and you said "I am predicting that the start of a recession will occur prior to Q2 2020" you are already wrong.

[JoeWeber 2,057]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I own high end rentals in college towns and lease them to professors,

Utilizing your conservative principals to make a buck off of over paid liberal college professors? Good plan.

[SkyDekker 995]

41 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Given that the definition of Recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, and you said "I am predicting that the start of a recession will occur prior to Q2 2020" you are already wrong.

Re-read that again and see if you can spot your own fuckup.....

Or do you really think that in that definition you posted the start of the recession is at the end of those 2 consecutive quarters?

[olofscience 370]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Given that the definition of Recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, and you said "I am predicting that the start of a recession will occur prior to Q2 2020" you are already wrong.

This is stretching logic so far past breaking point...if he made the prediction in Q4, then it should have already been contracting by then and he was only predicting Q1 results. Then it wouldn't be much of a prediction as much as simple extrapolation.

Is it so hard to admit he was right?

[brenthutch 363]

1 hour ago, olofscience said:

This is stretching logic so far past breaking point...if he made the prediction in Q4, then it should have already been contracting by then and he was only predicting Q1 results. Then it wouldn't be much of a prediction as much as simple extrapolation.

Is it so hard to admit he was right?

Are you saying that the economy was contracting prior to March?

https://www.amtec.us.com/blog/february-2020-economic-report

Hardly looks like we were in the middle of a slowdown.

[brenthutch 363]

2 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

Re-read that again and see if you can spot your own fuckup.....

Or do you really think that in that definition you posted the start of the recession is at the end of those 2 consecutive quarters?

You are right, sorry, I thought you meant that we would be in recession by Q2.  

Because of COVID19 looks like you will be right. 

[kallend 1,490]

In the United States, a recession is defined officially by the NBER.  The NBER, a defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".

 

Nothing in there about calendar quarters.

[CygnusX-1 39]

On 4/3/2020 at 10:30 AM, SkyDekker said:

Tesla's horrible Q1 results have nothing to do with Covid.

Just an FYI. The Q1 results were not horrible. They actually exceeded expectations. What you have to look at is year-over-year sales since the auto industry is cyclic. And given that, they were up 40% over Q1 2019. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/tesla-tsla-1q-2020-production-and-delivery-numbers.html)

And remember a year ago, the short sellers were saying that Tesla was going bankrupt and driving the price of their stock down?

Let's compare that to Ford's Q1 sales, "Ford Motor (NYSE:F) said that its U.S. sales fell 12.5% in the first quarter from a year ago" (https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/02/fords-first-quarter-sales-fell-125-but-rougher-wat.aspx)

So Tesla increased their production and sales for Q1 in 2020 over 2019 which included shutting down 2 of their factories due to COVID-19. While Ford lost 12% in sales over that same time frame.

But wait, what about GM? Buick - down 34.7%, Cadillac - down 15.8%, Chevrolet - down 3.8%, GMC - down 5.5% (https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/02/general-motors-us-sales-fall-7-in-first-quarter-pr.aspx)

[JoeWeber 2,057]

On 4/3/2020 at 4:49 PM, brenthutch said:

Because of COVID19 looks like you will be right.

Thank the currently popular deity you had that up your sleeve. But for Covid-19 and you might have needed to actually apologize.

[brenthutch 363]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-china-sales/tesla-china-sold-3635-model-3-vehicles-in-april-down-64-vs-march-cpca-idUSKBN22N0EE

Tesla down while EVs are up.....doesn't look good for Tony Stark.

[billvon 2,078]

On 5/21/2019 at 6:15 PM, brenthutch said:

Last year I predicted that Tesla would go bankrupt within five years.  Looks like I may have been too generous.

Just a reminder - this was from 2019.  So it's been 5 years from this prediction.

And the Tesla Model Y has just become the most popular car IN THE WORLD.  Tesla is now the 9th most valuable brand in the world.  And it is worth more than any other car company on the planet by a factor of 2.

We'll add this to the list of "there's only one problem with climate change - it ended in 1998!" sort of predictions.

[brenthutch 363]

14 hours ago, billvon said:

Just a reminder - this was from 2019.  So it's been 5 years from this prediction.

And the Tesla Model Y has just become the most popular car IN THE WORLD.  Tesla is now the 9th most valuable brand in the world.  And it is worth more than any other car company on the planet by a factor of 2.

We'll add this to the list of "there's only one problem with climate change - it ended in 1998!" sort of predictions.

Or the Arctic will be ice free by 2017.

[lippy 568]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Or the Arctic will be ice free by 2017.

You’re cute when you’re wrong

[kallend 1,490]

17 hours ago, billvon said:

Just a reminder - this was from 2019.  So it's been 5 years from this prediction.

 

OK, he was hopelessly wrong; what's new?

Edited May 27 by kallend

[brenthutch 363]

I am man enough to admit I was wrong, I expected more competition from established brands and I underestimated the tenacity of Tesla fanboys to buoy an overpriced stock. There, I said it, I was wrong

Edited May 28 by brenthutch

[JoeWeber 2,057]

40 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I am man enough to admit I was wrong, I expected more competition from established brands and I underestimated the tenacity of Tesla fanboys to buoy an overpriced stock. There, I said it, I was wrong

No, you didn't. What you did do was one of your, possibly patentable, lame assed attempts to deflect away from your failures by denigrating others. In this case it was "Teslas Fanboys" instead of accurately describing them as Tesla customers and investors with foresight.

[Phil1111 826]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

I am man enough to admit I was wrong, ....There, I said it, I was wrong

Real men put their country above their own financial interests. Because they want their children to live in a better place. T.R. was an American republican. He put America first and thats why he initiated all the national parks he left as his legacy.

Real men don't target weak and vulnerable social groups as people to be attacked and marginalized.

Its fine to admit you're wrong. But when your core beliefs are only about self.....change.

Edited May 28 by Phil1111