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brenthutch

Just a reminder

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12 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

To give some more perspective,

Hi Brent,

About 20+ yrs ago, I was reading an article about Saudi oil production.  In the article, the then Saudi Oil Minister said that the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks.

Jerry Baumchen

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(edited)
26 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Brent,

About 20+ yrs ago, I was reading an article about Saudi oil production.  In the article, the then Saudi Oil Minister said that the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks.

Jerry Baumchen

No it was just because bronze became more usefull, and did more with less.  As soon as rainbows and unicorn farts (solar, wind and by extension, EVs) can do more with less, the sun will set on the era of fossil fuels, until then...well you know. 

Edited by brenthutch

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8 hours ago, brenthutch said:

As far as your prediction, I don't recall you mentioning a pandemic as being the cause.

Still better than your track record of predictions :rofl:

Quote

Tesla produced 102,672 vehicles in the first quarter of 2020 and delivered 88,400 vehicles to customers, the company announced to investors on Thursday. While the delivery number is down from the previous quarter, the overall results were better than analysts had expected, sending Tesla's stock up more than 10 percent in after-hours trading.

Funny that with all your trolling, you still haven't shorted Tesla's stock. Surely with such a high value now it has no way to go but down? Go and short!

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3 hours ago, olofscience said:

Still better than your track record of predictions :rofl:

Funny that with all your trolling, you still haven't shorted Tesla's stock. Surely with such a high value now it has no way to go but down? Go and short!

I own high end rentals in college towns and lease them to professors, I am no longer in the market.

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13 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I thought you said by the second month.  As far as your prediction, I don't recall you mentioning a pandemic as being the cause.  You said it was the record high stock market, the record low unemployment, inverse yield curve and hundreds of thousands of new jobs that would plunge us into recession.  No mention of COVID19.  But I am sure if I point out Telsa's horrible Q1 results you will be blaming a virus.

  • I always said second quarter. This is the second time I have had to correct this for you.
  • Those are signals not causes. I have said things like: US has never been able to maintain record employment without tumbling into a recession. This statement continues to be true.
  • Tesla's horrible Q1 results have nothing to do with Covid. They are also not a sign of bankruptcy, which was your prediction.

It is very telling this post, which clearly shows you lack an ability to understand what you are reading, comes after you once again posting an article which you didn't understand.

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(edited)
17 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:
  • I always said second quarter. This is the second time I have had to correct this for you.
  • Tesla's horrible Q1 results have nothing to do with Covid. They are also not a sign of bankruptcy, which was your prediction.

 

Can you link to where you said second quarter?

My prediction was that Tesla would go bankrupt in five years (now three years).  Tesla's horrible Q1 results were from a drop in demand caused by the reduction of subsidies (just like I predicted)

Edited by brenthutch

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15 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

About 20+ yrs ago, I was reading an article about Saudi oil production.  In the article, the then Saudi Oil Minister said that the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks.

But rocks are cheap!  And only rich out of touch elites can afford bronze.  It's a fad that will disappear once government subsidies for bronze swords go away.  Rocks have worked for centuries; real people use rocks.

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2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Can you link to where you said second quarter?

My prediction was that Tesla would go bankrupt in five years (now three years).  Tesla's horrible Q1 results were from a drop in demand caused by the reduction of subsidies (just like I predicted)

here you go

I guess maybe it wasn't clearly stated enough for you to remember?

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41 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Given that the definition of Recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, and you said "I am predicting that the start of a recession will occur prior to Q2 2020" you are already wrong.

Re-read that again and see if you can spot your own fuckup.....

Or do you really think that in that definition you posted the start of the recession is at the end of those 2 consecutive quarters?

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1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Given that the definition of Recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, and you said "I am predicting that the start of a recession will occur prior to Q2 2020" you are already wrong.

This is stretching logic so far past breaking point...if he made the prediction in Q4, then it should have already been contracting by then and he was only predicting Q1 results. Then it wouldn't be much of a prediction as much as simple extrapolation.

Is it so hard to admit he was right?

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1 hour ago, olofscience said:

This is stretching logic so far past breaking point...if he made the prediction in Q4, then it should have already been contracting by then and he was only predicting Q1 results. Then it wouldn't be much of a prediction as much as simple extrapolation.

Is it so hard to admit he was right?

Are you saying that the economy was contracting prior to March?

https://www.amtec.us.com/blog/february-2020-economic-report

Hardly looks like we were in the middle of a slowdown.

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2 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

Re-read that again and see if you can spot your own fuckup.....

Or do you really think that in that definition you posted the start of the recession is at the end of those 2 consecutive quarters?

You are right, sorry, I thought you meant that we would be in recession by Q2.  

Because of COVID19 looks like you will be right. 

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In the United States, a recession is defined officially by the NBER.  The NBER, a defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".

 

Nothing in there about calendar quarters.

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On 4/3/2020 at 10:30 AM, SkyDekker said:

Tesla's horrible Q1 results have nothing to do with Covid.

Just an FYI. The Q1 results were not horrible. They actually exceeded expectations. What you have to look at is year-over-year sales since the auto industry is cyclic. And given that, they were up 40% over Q1 2019. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/tesla-tsla-1q-2020-production-and-delivery-numbers.html)

And remember a year ago, the short sellers were saying that Tesla was going bankrupt and driving the price of their stock down?

Let's compare that to Ford's Q1 sales, "Ford Motor (NYSE:F) said that its U.S. sales fell 12.5% in the first quarter from a year ago" (https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/02/fords-first-quarter-sales-fell-125-but-rougher-wat.aspx)

So Tesla increased their production and sales for Q1 in 2020 over 2019 which included shutting down 2 of their factories due to COVID-19. While Ford lost 12% in sales over that same time frame.

But wait, what about GM? Buick - down 34.7%, Cadillac - down 15.8%, Chevrolet - down 3.8%, GMC - down 5.5% (https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/02/general-motors-us-sales-fall-7-in-first-quarter-pr.aspx)

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On 4/3/2020 at 4:49 PM, brenthutch said:

Because of COVID19 looks like you will be right.

Thank the currently popular deity you had that up your sleeve. But for Covid-19 and you might have needed to actually apologize.

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