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brenthutch

Green new deal equals magical thinking

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2 hours ago, DJL said:

There's no scenario that doesn't phase our most ICE vehicles.  It's just a matter of time.

Agreed.  Plain old economics will drive that.  Leaf is $31K; average price of a new car in the US is $37K.

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2 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

If EVs are so awesome, why do they account for less than 1% of automobile sales.  EVs will remain a toy for the upper middle class, less so now that the tax incentive has been taken away.  With gas prices approaching $2.00 a gallon there is no reason to purchase an EV.

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2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

If EVs are so awesome, why do they account for less than 1% of automobile sales. 

Because they are new.  (BTW it's 2.2% now.)

Quote

EVs will remain a toy for the upper middle class, less so now that the tax incentive has been taken away.  With gas prices approaching $2.00 a gallon there is no reason to purchase an EV.

Gas prices will go up again.  They always do.

But by all means, keep your horse.  Those newfangled cars suck and they scare the missus.

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1 hour ago, billvon said:

Because they are new.  (BTW it's 2.2% now.)

Gas prices will go up again.  They always do.

But by all means, keep your horse.  Those newfangled cars suck and they scare the missus.

EVs are not new (face palm) they have been around for more than a century.

https://insideevs.com/news/403362/2019-plugin-car-sales-us/

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And yes oil prices will go up to a point ($30 a barrel) where shale oil will stabilize the price for the next few decades rendering EVs obsolete (at least for the foreseeable future)

1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Brent,

Back at you:  Why are so many major car mfrs ( USA, Japan, Europe ) investing in building them?

Jerry Baumchen

Jerry, 

It comes down to government pressure and greenwashing.  The consumer really doesn't want EVs, or doesn't want them as much as they want big SUVs and full sized pick up trucks.  Instead of the predicted skyrocketing demand for EVs, demand slackened in 2019 and is set to plummet in 2020.  Just the opposite of what the "experts" predicted. 

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9 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Jerry, 

It comes down to government pressure and greenwashing.  The consumer really doesn't want EVs, or doesn't want them as much as they want big SUVs and full sized pick up trucks.  Instead of the predicted skyrocketing demand for EVs, demand slackened in 2019 and is set to plummet in 2020.  Just the opposite of what the "experts" predicted. 

Hi Brent,

Last year ( I seem to remember it as then ), the head of Toyota said that by 2050 all of the cars that they make would be EV's.  I seriously doubt that he took that position due to any gov't. pressure.

As for:  'as much as they want big SUVs and full sized pick up trucks'

IMO that is a Kodak moment; not what the future will see.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  I own two cars, neither are EV's.  And, I doubt that I will be buying anymore cars in my lifetime.  I am very satisfied with the two that I own.

 

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4 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Brent,

Last year ( I seem to remember it as then ), the head of Toyota said that by 2050 all of the cars that they make would be EV's.  I seriously doubt that he took that position due to any gov't. pressure.

 

 

 https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/04/business/japan-mandates-automakers-improve-fuel-efficiency-30-fiscal-2030/#.XoKMQW5Fwy8

It would seem that the government is giving them a nudge.  It is also interesting to note that Japan is taking a different path with regard to a green future 

https://www.npr.org/2019/03/18/700877189/japan-is-betting-big-on-the-future-of-hydrogen-cars

So either the head of Toyota is wrong or Elon Musk is, they can't both be right.

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35 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

As for:  'as much as they want big SUVs and full sized pick up trucks'

IMO that is a Kodak moment; not what the future will see.

 

Well lets take a look at the past to see what the future (now) looks like.

"In an exclusive interview with the Detroit News, President Obama explained that while Americans “should enjoy” cheap gas prices across the country, long-term projections call for rising demand for oil in the U.S. and other parts of the world. Which means a return to higher fuel prices in the future is more or less inevitable.

Consequently, Obama said that it’s wise for Americans to operate—and spend, particularly in terms of big-ticket purchases—with the assumption that gas won’t be under $3 per gallon indefinitely. “I would strongly advise American consumers to continue to think about how you save money at the pump because it is good for the environment, it’s good for family pocketbooks and if you go back to old habits and suddenly gas is back at $3.50, you are going to not be real happy,” he said.

In reality, when you look at the auto sales trends of 2014, what with purchases of fuel-efficient hybrids like the Toyota Prius flagging while SUVs and luxury cars soar, it appears as if consumers have pretty much been doing the opposite of what the president is advising."

And what actually happened was the opposite of what Obama and the other "experts" were predicting.  EVs are the vehicle of the future....and always will be. 

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2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Last year ( I seem to remember it as then ), the head of Toyota said that by 2050 all of the cars that they make would be EV's.  I seriously doubt that he took that position due to any gov't. pressure.

 

Yep.  That will be purely for performance and cost reasons.

There's going to be another threshold passed soon, where people realize that there are two kinds of cars on the road - EV's and ICE cars.  And the EV is always going to be able to get in front of the ICE car if he has to.  And the people who buy ICE cars will be the people who can't afford the better car.

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Well, that's an eventually. We need more infrastructure (charging stations, fast charge, better batteries, and comparably convenient public transport) to make them truly competitive with ICE vehicles. Because it takes more planning and time with the electric, until those things happen. 

Trains were practical until car ownership began to rise; then people took their car instead of the train, because they could save hours (or even days) getting to place.

I'm looking forward to it; but until you can either "fill up" with a new battery at the quik-mart like you do with gas, so that you can keep driving to Grandma's for Christmas with the car full of presents and all four kids and the dog, it's not going to happen. We'll get there -- there are too many pointers saying so. But we don't know how yet -- do we?

Wendy P.

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14 hours ago, brenthutch said:

If EVs are so awesome, why do they account for less than 1% of automobile sales.  EVs will remain a toy for the upper middle class, less so now that the tax incentive has been taken away.  With gas prices approaching $2.00 a gallon there is no reason to purchase an EV.

Energy/Fuel cost for EV's is still below gas at that price.  The break even fuel cost is about $1.25-$1.40 / gal.

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Exactly Wendy.  I think range is still the biggest hurdle they face.  It creates uncertainty in the market.  I look at the range figures like I look at MPG estimates on the new car stickers.  I don't think I've ever owned a new vehicle that actually hit those MPG numbers.  But there's gas stations every where.  5 minutes and you're done.  

Your EV would have been useful as a paperweight during this.  2003 blackout 

 

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11 hours ago, billvon said:

Yep.  That will be purely for performance and cost reasons.

There's going to be another threshold passed soon

Define soon.

BTW my car has the same power to weight ratio as a base model 3 and costs half as much.

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1 hour ago, airdvr said:

Exactly Wendy.  I think range is still the biggest hurdle they face.  It creates uncertainty in the market.  I look at the range figures like I look at MPG estimates on the new car stickers.

But I think the difference between our outlooks is whether we look forward and see opportunity or problems. I see the opportunity as outweighing the problems. We’ll have problems no matter what we do. But planning around a static state and solving those problems is always a losing game. 

Wendy P. 

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4 hours ago, airdvr said:

Exactly Wendy.  I think range is still the biggest hurdle they face.  It creates uncertainty in the market. 

You can get EV's with a 380 mile range, and there are half a dozen EV's now with ranges over 250 miles.  Given that there are popular gas cars with ranges less than that, range is no longer the big issue.  Charging infrastructure is.

Here Tesla is winning in a big way.  You can drive anywhere in the US and always be within range of a fast charger (15-20 minutes.)  Services like EVGo and Blink are catching up but have a ways to go.  But being in a position where one company has succeeded and other companies are trying to compete is a pretty good place to be.

Quote

I look at the range figures like I look at MPG estimates on the new car stickers.  I don't think I've ever owned a new vehicle that actually hit those MPG numbers.  But there's gas stations every where.  5 minutes and you're done.  Your EV would have been useful as a paperweight during this.  2003 blackout 

In 2003 you would have been SOL with your gas car; gas pumps require electricity.  I would still have been able to charge.

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45 minutes ago, billvon said:

Here Tesla is winning in a big way.  You can drive anywhere in the US and always be within range of a fast charger (15-20 minutes.) 

I think it's pretty stupid to not have standardized charging systems.

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4 hours ago, wmw999 said:

 whether we look forward and see opportunity or problems.

Hi Wendy,

You have hit the crux of the entire discussion.

Me, I'm a 'the glass if 1/2 full' kind of guy.  Always have been, always will.

Or maybe it is the engineer in me.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  I designed & TSO'd my first rig because I saw an opportunity to overcome a problem.

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(edited)
13 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi DJL,

The codes, regulations, you name it, always follow the technology.

It will come.

Jerry Baumchen

True.  They're doing it because the infrastructure doesn't exist and you can't sell cars that can't be charged.  The last thing they want to do is put money into a system that takes away business from them so it'll remain specific to their cars.  I'd like Big Bad Government (with the help of capitalism) to make that not necessary.

Edited by DJL

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Maybe in the long run there will be adapters so that other cars can use the Tesla charging stations, once they've figured out how to monetize it. Kind of like how we have to buy an adapter to use our plug-in stuff in many other countries.

Wendy P.

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11 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Maybe in the long run there will be adapters so that other cars can use the Tesla charging stations, once they've figured out how to monetize it. Kind of like how we have to buy an adapter to use our plug-in stuff in many other countries.

Wendy P.

High current adapters in the hands of consumers will probably not be feasible. A standard will be needed.

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