3 3
brenthutch

Green new deal equals magical thinking

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, airdvr said:

https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Portals/69/docs/GreatLakesInfo/docs/WaterLevels/LTA-GLWL-Graph_2016.pdf

This spring has been extremely wet around the Great Lakes.  Scientific American wants to blame it on climate change..  The second link shows the history of water levels on the Great Lakes.  Ebb and flow...it's what the lakes do.  Seems every weather oddity is now climate change.

My Grandfather and Uncle put together some of that information.  My grandfather's life work was to establish the material composition of the surface, lake bed and bedrock within the Great Lakes.  https://www.amazon.com/Geology-Great-Lakes-Jack-Hough/dp/0252724410    What took him decades with a drill rig on a research boat could probably be done in about a year with today's tech.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/7/2019 at 10:36 AM, brenthutch said:

In a few days NOAA will publish the global temperature.  I am breaking out my sous vide machine to prepare the crow that I will be serving.  

Never heard back from you on this but I understand that sous vide takes a little longer to cook.  Can we get that NOAA data yet?

In the meantime the Greenland Ice sheet had record ice melt for this point in the season this week with temperatures 40 degrees above normal.  Other areas of the entire Arctic Ocean are also seeing the same with Arctic sea ice coverage at it lowest on record for mid-June.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, DJL said:

Never heard back from you on this but I understand that sous vide takes a little longer to cook.  Can we get that NOAA data yet?

In the meantime the Greenland Ice sheet had record ice melt for this point in the season this week with temperatures 40 degrees above normal.  Other areas of the entire Arctic Ocean are also seeing the same with Arctic sea ice coverage at it lowest on record for mid-June.

That is just ONE dayta point - 

 

GHEEZE - you say weather isn't climate change - don't you think the weather was the cause of that?

You are going to have to pick a position and stay there.  You move around more than the goal posts in this thread.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

That is just ONE dayta point - 

 

GHEEZE - you say weather isn't climate change - don't you think the weather was the cause of that?

You are going to have to pick a position and stay there.  You move around more than the goal posts in this thread.

 

This is responding to his claim that the upcoming weather data (presumably for June) would show that there is no trend towards global heating averages and Arctic ice melt.  He had dismissed the data showing 2019 as being the third hottest on record and I'm not really sure why he would think June would show data or ice melt any different than that but there it is, record low sea ice coverage.  Now that you're up to speed how's that moving the goal posts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, turtlespeed said:

That is just ONE dayta point - 

 

GHEEZE - you say weather isn't climate change - don't you think the weather was the cause of that?

You are going to have to pick a position and stay there.  You move around more than the goal posts in this thread.

 

"I have this one data point that will make you all EAT CROW!  What?  The data doesn't say what I thought it would?  Well, that's just one data point; it doesn't mean anything!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(edited)
16 hours ago, billvon said:

"I have this one data point that will make you all EAT CROW!  What?  The data doesn't say what I thought it would?  Well, that's just one data point; it doesn't mean anything!"

DINNER IS SERVED!

Global temps for May are COOLER than in 2015, 2016 and 2017.  Yes folks its true!  Despite gigatons of additional CO2 and a rebranding from "climate change" to "climate emergency"  the planet's temperature stubbornly refuses to  climb up that ol' hockey stick.

Bon Appetit! 

PS Sorry for the delay but I had to wait until NOAA published its data.

Edited by brenthutch
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

DINNER IS SERVED!

To quote one of your own:

That is just ONE dayta point - 

GHEEZE - you say weather isn't climate change - don't you think the weather was the cause of that?

You are going to have to pick a position and stay there.  You move around more than the goal posts in this thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

DINNER IS SERVED!

Global temps for May are COOLER than in 2015, 2016 and 2017.  Yes folks its true!  Despite gigatons of additional CO2 and a rebranding from "climate change" to "climate emergency"  the planet's temperature stubbornly refuses to  climb up that ol' hockey stick.

Bon Appetit! 

PS Sorry for the delay but I had to wait until NOAA published its data.

Um.....you'll need to cite your source but we're still tracking as the third hottest year on record with May being hotter than anything but 2017 and 2016.  Meaning up from 2018 if you're interested in such a short term trend but still up from 2015, although I'm not sure why we're so concerned with comparing the last several years to each other considering they are all records.

ytd-horserace-201905.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, billvon said:

To quote one of your own:

That is just ONE dayta point - 

GHEEZE - you say weather isn't climate change - don't you think the weather was the cause of that?

You are going to have to pick a position and stay there.  You move around more than the goal posts in this thread.

Oh, I guess I didn't get TurtleSpeed's joke that it was BrentHutch being quoted there.  Got it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From NOAA's website

"The global land and ocean surface temperature for May 2019 was 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average and the fourth highest May temperature departure from average since global records began in 1880. Mays 2016 (+0.93°C / +1.67°F), 2015 (+0.89°C / +1.60°F), and 2017 (+0.87°C / +1.57°F) were warmer."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

From NOAA's website

"The global land and ocean surface temperature for May 2019 was 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average and the fourth highest May temperature departure from average since global records began in 1880. Mays 2016 (+0.93°C / +1.67°F), 2015 (+0.89°C / +1.60°F), and 2017 (+0.87°C / +1.57°F) were warmer."

Guess they have conflicting outputs.  So why is that eating crow to have had the 4th hottest May on record?  Are we saying that global warming ended 2016 now?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, DJL said:

Guess they have conflicting outputs.  So why is that eating crow to have had the 4th hottest May on record?  Are we saying that global warming ended 2016 now?

No, just pointing out the obvious, that CO2 is not much of a driver of climate and that breathless claims of record hot years (by a few hundredths of a degree) are pointless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

No, just pointing out the obvious, that CO2 is not much of a driver of climate and that breathless claims of record hot years (by a few hundredths of a degree) are pointless.

But you didn't make a point.  Why would this year need to be the hottest in order for that to be true?  What is it about the difference between 2015, 16 and 17 that makes your case? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

No, just pointing out the obvious, that CO2 is not much of a driver of climate and that breathless claims of record hot years (by a few hundredths of a degree) are pointless.

Are you trying to say that a comparison of the differences between the top four temperatures means that CO2 is not a relevant driver of CO2.  Do you understand how to compare data?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DJL said:

Are you trying to say that a comparison of the differences between the top four temperatures means that CO2 is not a relevant driver of CO2.  Do you understand how to compare data?

No I would say CO2 is a relevant driver of CO2 and that's about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

No I would say CO2 is a relevant driver of CO2 and that's about it.

Your own post says that the temperature is 0.85C and 1.53F above the century average.  Again, do you understand how to compare data.  Let's say you have 100 people in a race and the top four are all hundredth's of seconds from each other's times.  Is the comparison of those four people with each other relevant to how their speed is compared to the other 100?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"For nearly 40 years, the massive computer models used to simulate global climate have delivered a fairly consistent picture of how fast human carbon emissions might warm the world. But a host of global climate models developed for the United Nations’s next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021, are now showing a puzzling but undeniable trend. They are running hotter than they have in the past. Soon the world could be, too.

In earlier models, doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) over preindustrial levels led models to predict somewhere between 2°C and 4.5°C of warming once the planet came into balance. But in at least eight of the next-generation models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that “equilibrium climate sensitivity” has come in at 5°C or warmer. Modelers are struggling to identify which of their refinements explain this heightened sensitivity before the next assessment from the United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But the trend “is definitely real. There’s no question,” says Reto Knutti, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich in Switzerland. “Is that realistic or not? At this point, we don’t know.”"

The new and improved climate models are even worse than the old ones apparently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

"For nearly 40 years, the massive computer models used to simulate global climate have delivered a fairly consistent picture of how fast human carbon emissions might warm the world. But a host of global climate models developed for the United Nations’s next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021, are now showing a puzzling but undeniable trend. They are running hotter than they have in the past. Soon the world could be, too.

In earlier models, doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) over preindustrial levels led models to predict somewhere between 2°C and 4.5°C of warming once the planet came into balance. But in at least eight of the next-generation models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that “equilibrium climate sensitivity” has come in at 5°C or warmer. Modelers are struggling to identify which of their refinements explain this heightened sensitivity before the next assessment from the United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But the trend “is definitely real. There’s no question,” says Reto Knutti, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich in Switzerland. “Is that realistic or not? At this point, we don’t know.”"

The new and improved climate models are even worse than the old ones apparently.

What's your point? Are you suggesting scientists should not update and refine models?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SkyDekker said:

What's your point? Are you suggesting scientists should not update and refine models?

No my point is that the older climate models overstated the climates sensitivity to CO2. Thirty years on, we can compare actual observation to what they predicted and see that they fail.  Apparently the new and improved models fail even more miserably.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

No my point is that the older climate models overstated the climates sensitivity to CO2. Thirty years on, we can compare actual observation to what they predicted and see that they fail.  Apparently the new and improved models fail even more miserably.    

The new models are still very preliminary, but if they are true, they are more severe/devastating than previously modeled. IE. they make the need to fight climate change much more urgent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(edited)
4 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

No my point is that the older climate models overstated the climates sensitivity to CO2. Thirty years on, we can compare actual observation to what they predicted and see that they fail.  Apparently the new and improved models fail even more miserably.    

What you posted simply states the previous models were more conservative, not anything about actual observations.  Also, that there's 8 of them that all show the same thing.

 

Anyway, back to the issue you're now trying to skirt.  You've posted that an increase of 0.85C (in nearly a 1.6C steady rise from the beginning of the data set) above average is not relevant.  How does this disprove that CO2 is a driver of global warming?

Edited by DJL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(edited)
21 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

models-v-obs-christy-2018.gif.7c64acb27ee7be167918313a2ef94bdc.gif

 

Well, you didn't link your source but scroll down on this link for several different climate models and how they match against the actual data.

 https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming

EDIT:  The IPCC reference you show above was first started in 1990 you can see their data in this link.  They estimated about 1C warming from the 1970 but it was only about 0.85C, a 17% overestimation.  What you show above is gobblygook.

Edited by DJL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

From NOAA's website

"The global land and ocean surface temperature for May 2019 was 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average and the fourth highest May temperature departure from average since global records began in 1880. 

How does that crow taste?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

3 3