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RMK

weather forcasts (Hurricane Florence)

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Watching the weather (NC & SC areas for Hurricane Florence), it seems the public gets fixated on the Hurricane “Level” number and don’t really look into the details which can potentially be disastrous. I have friends that live in these coastal areas and been speaking with them on the phone. One contact noted “I’m on higher ground than “in town”, but I just looked at the elevation map and town is 6ft elevation; he’s only 8ft. He’s 75 so I’m certain he’s not ever checked this on the internet.

Being a pilot and yachtsman, I’ve studied weather for years, but note now that even though we have the best available resources, models and methods to disseminate the information – we’ve “dumbed” it down. I’m watching this on television now and there is not a single mention of the air pressure. With silly descriptions like “heat index” and “wind chill”, the mainstream weather reports today just simply about “do I need a jacket or umbrella today”.

I hope that those that think a category 1 or 2 hurricane is nothing to really be concerned about, don’t find the contrary.
"Pain is the best instructor, but no one wants to attend his classes"

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It seems to go in cycles.

In years past, they gave endless hours of detail on pressures, wind speeds, surge heights, all that.

Lately, they seem to be dumbing it down to "It's a big storm" and not a whole lot else.

What I'm hearing is that the winds won't be all that bad, but it's a big storm and it's moving very slowly.
That means a lot of rain. Upwards of 3 feet in some places (that an entire meter for you :P).

With that much rain, being 'up high' won't matter anywhere near as much as 'away from the watershed.'
Any area that sees a good amount of runoff is going to be a bad place to be.

As is often the case, there will be a fair amount of people who underestimate the severity of the storm. Some will pay for that mistake with their lives.
Some of the survivors will complain that they weren't warned about 'how bad' it could be.
"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

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Watching the news, the one item that works great are their outdoor microphones - they've definitely got that tech sorted.

The reporters may be barely able to stand against the wind, but you can hear them crystal clear.
"Pain is the best instructor, but no one wants to attend his classes"

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The interesting thing I read about Florence from a news conference was "do you want to get hit by a cement truck, or do you want to get hit by a train?"

The analogy I got from that was a cement truck = fast moving powerful storm. Train = HUGE slow moving storm with seemingly endless hours of rain, wind and flooding.

My aunt has a house in Topsail Beach across the road from the water. From the ground, you can't see the water due to the 6-10 feet high dune, but you can from the 2nd and 3rd floors. Sure looked like the eye went ashore right there between Wrightsville Beach and Surf City. I was there less than 2 months ago. [:/]
"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

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BillyVance

The interesting thing I read about Florence from a news conference was "do you want to get hit by a cement truck, or do you want to get hit by a train?"

The analogy I got from that was a cement truck = fast moving powerful storm. Train = HUGE slow moving storm with seemingly endless hours of rain, wind and flooding.

My aunt has a house in Topsail Beach across the road from the water. From the ground, you can't see the water due to the 6-10 feet high dune, but you can from the 2nd and 3rd floors. Sure looked like the eye went ashore right there between Wrightsville Beach and Surf City. I was there less than 2 months ago. [:/]




My uncle used to have a house there... Used to... destroyed years ago....


I feel bad for all the folks in NC ( lots of relatives) who were in harms way and now dealing with the aftermath and flooding. My 89 year old Mom lives 100 yards from the Atlantic Ocean in Myrtle Beach and evacuated to my first cousins house NW of Charlotte in the mountains. When they took her home 2 days ago the normal 6 hour drive was 12 hours navigating all the road closures. Her house was built in 1955 as most of the one story beach bungalows in her neighborhood were built between late 1954 to 1959. Hurricane Hazel did a bit of urban renewal there in October 1954 with a 17' storm surge. I thought for sure this was the one that would do it again and luckily she just lost a tree in her yard ... no damage to the house except for a little water in the garage. A couple years ago we had to spend about $40 K to repair flood damage that caused the foundation to settle into the sand bar that is Myrtle Beach. Luckily for her the storm track turned and went north of Wilmington. For others in the family up there not so lucky and a few around the Cape Fear River region it will be months till they can return their lives to normal.

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We have been vacationing on topsail Island for decades. I was just up there a couple months ago also. My family from all over meets up there every summer. The periodically get blasted by hurricanes and then they rebuild and all is good til the next one. One year we were heading that way when a hurricane came through and took out most of the first row. It was early 2000's maybe Gustav?? We ended up in Myrtle Beach for a week until the roads were reopened and we could get to a condo there.
You can't be drunk all day if you don't start early!

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