0
nolhtairt

North and South Korea

Recommended Posts

Quite frankly, I'm amazed at the rapid change in North Korea's tone from defiance to conciliatory. Say what you want about Trump, but I dare say that this would not have happened if Hillary had won.

After 60+ years of politicians-turned-presidents who never could solve the North Korean equation or just punted it down the road, here comes a businessman-turned-president who takes a hard line, and gets the UN to work on sanctions. Kim Jong Un saw the writing on the wall. He was going to run out of hard currency within months.

Of course, there's still work to do to finish the process and get a peace treaty signed to replace the armistice, but things appear to be moving in the right direction.

Well done, Trump. Give that man the Nobel Peace Prize. :)

TrumpNobelPrize.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, if history is any guide, the North is playing nice to get sanctions dropped and get more food aid. They likely have no intention of stopping their nuclear program or giving up the weapons they already have. They have done this before. No serious observer of the situation thinks this time is likely to be any different.

Whether this would have happened if Hillary were elected is anyone's guess. What we can be fairly certain of is that she'd see through their bullshit and proceed with caution. I have no illusion that Trump has that capability.

- Dan G

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Apparently the North Korean idea of "nuclear free" also includes having the US rescind its nuclear "umbrella" from South Korea. If that happens, the US would basically agree not to retaliate with nuclear weapons should the North decide to use its much larger military to invade the South. Would the US really be willing to commit ground forces to defend South Korea in a conventional war?

Don
_____________________________________
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
nolhtairt

Quite frankly, I'm amazed at the rapid change in North Korea's tone from defiance to conciliatory. Say what you want about Trump, but I dare say that this would not have happened if Hillary had won.

After 60+ years of politicians-turned-presidents who never could solve the North Korean equation or just punted it down the road, here comes a businessman-turned-president who takes a hard line, and gets the UN to work on sanctions. Kim Jong Un saw the writing on the wall. He was going to run out of hard currency within months.



Do you really think KJU is going to give up his nukes?

Or offer any real concessions?

He gets quite a lot of hard currency through his counterfeiting operations and by smuggling drugs through the 'diplomatic bag'.

Trump is an idiot, especially when it comes to foreign affairs.

KJU is fairly good at this. The fact that he's still alive and in power is testament to that.

I'll bet fairly heavily that KJU knows exactly what he's doing.

Don't be too surprised if Trump gets taken to the cleaners.
"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GeorgiaDon

Apparently the North Korean idea of "nuclear free" also includes having the US rescind its nuclear "umbrella" from South Korea. If that happens, the US would basically agree not to retaliate with nuclear weapons should the North decide to use its much larger military to invade the South. Would the US really be willing to commit ground forces to defend South Korea in a conventional war?

Don



I think another issue on hand here is that if NK tones it down a bit then China can step in as their official protectorate. That then leaves NK with more options in the long run just as Syria falling into Russia's arms leaves them protected.

So, on the block so far is China publicly offering their military support to Russia to protect against the US and both of them are snapping up buffer regions.
"I encourage all awesome dangerous behavior." - Jeffro Fincher

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
nolhtairt

Say what you want about Trump, but I dare say that this would not have happened if Hillary had won.



Why? Do you think she would have prevented South Korea from hosting the Olympics?
Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I saw the Berlin Wall go up and saw it come down. (On tv in both cases, but hey). I'm not old enough to have seen the Korea division but it would be nice to see reunification or at least the end of the Korean War. After seeing the Soviet Union finally crumble it seems like anything is possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quite frankly, I'm amazed at the rapid change in North Korea's tone from defiance to conciliatory.


Why?

Quote

After 60+ years of politicians-turned-presidents who never could solve the North Korean equation or just punted it down the road, here comes a businessman-turned-president who takes a hard line, and gets the UN to work on sanctions. Kim Jong Un saw the writing on the wall.



The UNSC passed two sets of sanctions in 2016 when Obama was in office, and two more in 2017 with Trump. Trump gets pre-emptive credit for things that were in motion before he was in charge?

Quote

Of course, there's still work to do to finish the process and get a peace treaty signed to replace the armistice,



'Finish' the process is being slightly optimistic. it's still pretty much the whole process to be done right now...
Do you want to have an ideagasm?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A lot of people's greatest nightmare is that this works out well. I know it's far from a sure thing, but it could happen, especially ending the war. I know it's mostly symbolic but it would be great to see.
As for reunification, I just don't see how it could be implemented. I'm not saying it couldn't, just that I can't see it. But maybe the people actually working on it can.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
jclalor

The guy that executes his relatives with Triple A is now an “Honorable” guy and ready to get rid of his nukes?



Now that isn't always true;
He sometimes uses VX.:P
"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ryoder

***The guy that executes his relatives with Triple A is now an “Honorable” guy and ready to get rid of his nukes?



Now that isn't always true;
He sometimes uses VX.:P

And we have no idea what's going on that might pressure him to do this. Are the Chinese coming down on him? Has Gloria Allred threatened to represent the women around him? Personally, I don't see where honorable fits into it or needs to. I wouldn't call the East Berlin leaders honorable but The Wall came down anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bob_Church

******The guy that executes his relatives with Triple A is now an “Honorable” guy and ready to get rid of his nukes?



Now that isn't always true;
He sometimes uses VX.:P

And we have no idea what's going on that might pressure him to do this. Are the Chinese coming down on him? Has Gloria Allred threatened to represent the women around him? Personally, I don't see where honorable fits into it or needs to. I wouldn't call the East Berlin leaders honorable but The Wall came down anyway.

Talk for politicians is always cheap. Especially when they walk back the talk and Kim walks it back even more than trump. Or at least his father did.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bob_Church

******The guy that executes his relatives with Triple A is now an “Honorable” guy and ready to get rid of his nukes?



Now that isn't always true;
He sometimes uses VX.:P

And we have no idea what's going on that might pressure him to do this. Are the Chinese coming down on him? Has Gloria Allred threatened to represent the women around him? Personally, I don't see where honorable fits into it or needs to. I wouldn't call the East Berlin leaders honorable but The Wall came down anyway.

Q: What is the easiest way to drive a wedge between SK and it’s powerful sabre-rattling ally?

A: Get cozy and charming with SK.
"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Whatever Kim's game is it is highly unlikely that his agenda includes losing the weapons he put so much effort into acquiring. At this point in history he can not have reunification without sacrificing his life. He can't take the south by force, and he can not agree to a merger of equals without giving up his power. Without his power he would be quickly killed. So that leaves stalling for time as the only real possibility to explain what is in the news now.
Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Exactly. There will be no reunification as long as Kim lives. Further, I think it will take years for a unified Korea to be successful, or even feasible, after a new government is established in the North. Culture shock will be the overwhelming factor. And, I believe there will be a lot of distrust on both sides. There will be people who will resist as well as factions that will want to go down differing paths WRT reunification. The best we can hope for, short term, is Kim's acquiescence to mandates of sanctions, and 2 Korea's that get along and slowly build relationships as 2 separate nations. Otherwise, either things remain as they have been for 60 years or Kim dies as a criminal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think it is all good, but sure, a dozen or more intentions or placations may be playing out.

1. offering to end the war, is symbolic. They war has effectively ended for decades now. So moot to say that you are going to end the war and somehow it will be different because we signed this piece of paper. I expect the USA is not closing the bases and going home just because they sign a document, and I doubt the north is going to suddenly disarm the border either.

2. KJU could be playing Trump as so many others already have. work towards something that looks great, makes Trump look great (you KNOW that Trump is going to take credit for it all) in exchange for a better deal for his country and sanctions etc.

3. We still know little about their nuclear program or what they have, so stating things like "we are going to shut down programs" could be symbolic depending on the stockpiles they already have, or as others have stated, their programs were stopped anyway due to shortages of materials, or the inability to operate the facilities for any number of dozens of technical reasons. For all we know they might have executed or imprisoned their top scientists.... "We are shutting down the program voluntarily"


when are the inspectors going in? Probably not anytime soon. I think it is all great that N/S are talking, I believe that all Koreans probably want a unified country, just like Vietnam did, and I also doubt that this will only be resolved by the Koreans and not us, and last, they are millions of miles apart on any social/cultural/political system that might be mutually cooperative or actually work.

But great that they are talking and shaking hands. It cannot do any harm I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tkhayes

I think it is all good, but sure, a dozen or more intentions or placations may be playing out.

1. offering to end the war, is symbolic. They war has effectively ended for decades now. So moot to say that you are going to end the war and somehow it will be different because we signed this piece of paper. I expect the USA is not closing the bases and going home just because they sign a document, and I doubt the north is going to suddenly disarm the border either.

2. KJU could be playing Trump as so many others already have. work towards something that looks great, makes Trump look great (you KNOW that Trump is going to take credit for it all) in exchange for a better deal for his country and sanctions etc.

3. We still know little about their nuclear program or what they have, so stating things like "we are going to shut down programs" could be symbolic depending on the stockpiles they already have, or as others have stated, their programs were stopped anyway due to shortages of materials, or the inability to operate the facilities for any number of dozens of technical reasons. For all we know they might have executed or imprisoned their top scientists.... "We are shutting down the program voluntarily"


when are the inspectors going in? Probably not anytime soon. I think it is all great that N/S are talking, I believe that all Koreans probably want a unified country, just like Vietnam did, and I also doubt that this will only be resolved by the Koreans and not us, and last, they are millions of miles apart on any social/cultural/political system that might be mutually cooperative or actually work.

But great that they are talking and shaking hands. It cannot do any harm I think.



Well, first off, I fully agree that it's good that they are talking. However, The US & ROK have been 'talking' to the DPRK since the end of the war. Very little of substance has been negotiated.

To your points:
1 - This is a part of the world where symbols are very important. The concept of 'loss of face' is incredibly important. There's a story about the talks at the DMZ where the DPRK had their flag on a taller stand than the US & ROK flags. It was noticed and stopped. So the DPRK made the stand base taller, so it stood above the US & ROK flags. This was noticed and stopped. So the DPRK put a couple extra layers of felt under the base. No clue if it's true or not, but it's a good example of the mentality. Remember how important it was to the Chinese that Bush apologize for the collision between their fighter and our Elint plane, back in summer of 01? Same mentality.

2 - This is almost certain. KJU knows how to do this, he has a good handle on Trump's vulnerabilities and Trump has little or no clue about international relations (once described as "one country fucking another").

3 - This is a good point, and one I hadn't seen before. The DPRK nuke program has somewhat stalled. They have tried bigger, fusion devices and AFAIK, haven't succeeded. Those are pretty hard. Basic fission is fairly easy and they have that. Maybe they can't go any further and know it. So why continue research? Trade it off for something. They are also finding out how hard missiles are. I've mentioned before that the US and Soviets spent a lot of time and money finding out how hard it is. Lots of very expensive missiles turned into pretty fireworks. So rather than admit that launching an H-bomb at the US mainland is an impossibility (and lose face), agree to curtail the program that isn't going anywhere anyway. Turn a failure into a success (and be able to punish the scientists and engineers who failed).
"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tkhayes

I think it is all good, but sure, a dozen or more intentions or placations may be playing out.

1. offering to end the war, is symbolic. They war has effectively ended for decades now. So moot to say that you are going to end the war and somehow it will be different because we signed this piece of paper. I expect the USA is not closing the bases and going home just because they sign a document, and I doubt the north is going to suddenly disarm the border either.

2. KJU could be playing Trump as so many others already have. work towards something that looks great, makes Trump look great (you KNOW that Trump is going to take credit for it all) in exchange for a better deal for his country and sanctions etc.

3. We still know little about their nuclear program or what they have, so stating things like "we are going to shut down programs" could be symbolic depending on the stockpiles they already have, or as others have stated, their programs were stopped anyway due to shortages of materials, or the inability to operate the facilities for any number of dozens of technical reasons. For all we know they might have executed or imprisoned their top scientists.... "We are shutting down the program voluntarily"


when are the inspectors going in? Probably not anytime soon. I think it is all great that N/S are talking, I believe that all Koreans probably want a unified country, just like Vietnam did, and I also doubt that this will only be resolved by the Koreans and not us, and last, they are millions of miles apart on any social/cultural/political system that might be mutually cooperative or actually work.

But great that they are talking and shaking hands. It cannot do any harm I think.



I agree. We've never seen a North Korean leader step foot into South Korea and shake hands with a South Korean leader, until now. And those that say Trump will take credit for it happening on his watch, well did they see South Korea's foreign minister directly credit Trump? On CNN, in front of Amanpour no less? :D The Korean War never officially ended because they could not agree on a peace treaty so they've always been in a "state of war", ready to strike at any provocation. Getting this peace treaty should ease tensions in a major way. Still have to be wary of course.

Yes, I know Obama started with the sanctions. But DPRK really ramped up their rocket tests after Trump became POTUS, forcing the UNSC to impose the harshest rounds of sanctions ever. Honestly I don't know exactly how much of an impact they had, but here's the result. Pompeo secretly met with KJU over Easter weekend, then KJU met South Korean counterpart Moon, and possibly next month or so will meet with Trump if the two sides can agree on the details. This is unprecedented.

And I do think the sanctions may have prevented DPRK from acquiring the materials they want for their nuclear program, thus keeping them from advancing their technology. That's likely a win for us.

No, I don't trust KJU either, but he ain't stupid. His goal is to maintain his status as supreme ruler of North Korea and keep his government intact. So yes, I'm sure he will want guarantees and try to get what he wants out of all this. After all, he learned it from his dad.

One other thing. I believe the two Koreas will never be reunified. China and Russia won't allow it, unless it's Communist. They do not want US forces that close to their borders. But if the two Koreas can be friendly and cordial without any hostilities and interferences with each other, then that will be awesome.

However, Kim Jong Un is still a fat fuck who's willing to kill family and close aides if they so dare cross him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tkhayes

after reading a bit, yes, I think they do not want it, but for economic reasons, not necessarily social or cultural reasons.



Do we have any idea what the North Koreans want? Yes, the administration has a hold on the population but there's also a vast network of enablers who actually support KJU for their own interests. We like to think that we can roll the tanks in a be met with streets full of supporters waving flag but that hasn't happened since the Allies liberated Paris.
"I encourage all awesome dangerous behavior." - Jeffro Fincher

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

0