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Phillbo

An interesting talk with the Head of Daimler Benz

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An interesting talk with the Head of Daimler Benz
In a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla (obviously), and now, Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are……



Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

ArtificialIntelligence:Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs.Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

So, if you study law, stop immediately.There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses.Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars:In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public.Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.You don't want to own a car anymore.You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving.Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.We now have one accident every60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km).That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably go bankrupt.Traditional car companies will try the traditional approach and try to build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.

Auto Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, car insurance will become much cheaper.Their car insurance business model will slowly disappear.

Real estate will change.Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean:Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, and now you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last.. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents).We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health innovations:The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample, and you can breath into it.

It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.Goodbye, medical establishment.

3D printing:The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years.In the same time, it became 100 times faster.All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some common spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to keep in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoes at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building.By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities:If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself:"In the future, do you think we will have that?", and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work:70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture:There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water.The first Petri dish that produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly.It contains more protein than meat.It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in.By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!

Longevity:Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years.The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year.So, we all might live for a long time, probably way more than 100.

Education:The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia.By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone.That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Swahili, and Chinese this summer.I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English. And that could happen within half a year.

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Phillbo

An interesting talk with the Head of Daimler Benz



I can find no reputable article that indicates Dieter Zetsche, the CEO of Daimler Benz, said any of this. Instead I tracked down several links to a FB post from April 2016 bu a German named Udo Gollub. https://www.facebook.com/udo.gollub/posts/10207978845381135. That makes sense to me, because the statements do not sound at all like what would be said by any head of Dalmier Benz or any other major car company.

An interesting rambling collection of facts and opinions, but I'm fascinated and a little dismayed how it moved from Mr. Gollub to Mr. Zetche. Just another example of what Abraham Lincoln once said, "Don't believe everything you read online"

Seth
It's flare not flair, brakes not breaks, bridle not bridal, "could NOT care less" not "could care less".

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And one more follow up link:

https://www.economicclub.org/sites/default/files/transcripts/Dieter%20Zetsche%20Transcript.pdf

It is an actual transcript of a 2015 talk by Mr. Zetsche. Note how much more like a CEO head he sounds. Here is his Tesla quote:
Quote

Plus to this day, no manufacturer has actually made money on
electric vehicles. Daimler was and I think still is the first exception because we sold our stake in
Tesla with a $750 million gain. [Laughter.]
Now, does selling our Tesla shares mean that we are backing away from electric cars?
No, not at all, because electric mobility will become the dominant form of personal
transportation, just not as fast as some people expected.


It's flare not flair, brakes not breaks, bridle not bridal, "could NOT care less" not "could care less".

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Yeah right. Reminds me of the predictions listed in the treatises and books by Upton Sinclair the socialist. Yes he labeled himself as such. Born in 1878. Wrote The Jungle, Oil etc.

He predicted the average worker would only have to work a few hours a week, that there would be giant potato digging machines, fruit picking machines etc. no more menial labor, an embarrassing abundance of food, etc etc.. Just another predictor, 100 years ago of the "advances of science" (as he called them) making life more or less effortless, with food provided by machines, goods the same way yada yadda. The population would not have to work very much and instead would occupy their abundant spare time to lives of creativity and social enlightenment.

Of course some version of some of the machines and progress he predicted has come about, but not to the degree predicted. Not even close.

So now, in this copied post, we have the list of things that are predicted to occur, the benefits of some new stuff, etc yadda yadda. About 1/4 of the stuff predicted have a ring of
plausibility of occurring to the extent stated. A few will probably occur. Very few. The rest are just theories and predictions that border on being a wish list. Progress in all of these areas is expected. But to even give any credence to most of these predictions is a longing for a technical utopian world. It is, in some respects a wish list, entertaining but pretty silly. Kind of a waste of electrons and time.

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We just bought a car last week and weighed very heavily an Electric but ended up with a Hybrid. I see in the next 5 years electric taking off with multiple models. I fully predict that the gas car I have will be the last full gas car we will own and all future will be electric or hybrid's of some type.
Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

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Depends on your needs. I may be wrong, but I don't think electric cars would be feasible for long trips if you have to stop and recharge every so and so miles. Local commutes work best.

Of course, you can always rent a regular car if you have somewhere to go well beyond the electric car's range.

I did see something about an electric car having the capability to recharge during the drive with solar panels on the roof or something like that, but I didn't read through it.
"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

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Hi Billy,

Quote

I don't think electric cars would be feasible for long trips if you have to stop and recharge every so and so miles.



This problem will be overcome when the infrastructure is in place to merely change out the batteries rather than charge them.

Tesla did a demo where they could change out a full set of batteries faster than you could get a fillup of gasoline.

Its all about the infrastructure,

Jerry Baumchen

PS) Have you heard about Tesla's $250,000 roadster?

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Quote

PS) Have you heard about Tesla's $250,000 roadster?



0-60 in 1.9 seconds? Sounds like some serious fun there! Not to mention its 600 mile range? Rumor is the "Special edition" will be doing about 1.8 seconds in the 0-60. Thats putting it in the range of an F1 race car. I want to see its top speed...

The Model 3 is getting 300 miles per charge, the Volt is getting 350 or so per charge. That's putting it in the range of a 5-6 hour drive before needing to charge up again. Its been a while since I've done a road trip of more than 6 hours straight with out needing to get out and stretch my legs and fill my gas tank. The recharge time on a supercharger is 20 minutes to 50% charge, 40 minutes to 80% and 75 to 100%. Most trips I take now need some fast food breaks and breaks for the kids that are at least 15-20 minutes long every 3-4 hours or so. I could easily change those over to a bit nicer food option and charge up to the 80% mark which would get me another 250 miles or so.



To be honest in these days of fairly cheap airfare the thought of doing 10-15 hour drives with the family just sucks when I could fly all of us for about $800 and we are there in 2-3 hours and ready to go and enjoy vacation.
Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

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PhreeZone

the Volt is getting 350 or so per charge.

To be honest in these days of fairly cheap airfare the thought of doing 10-15 hour drives with the family just sucks when I could fly all of us for about $800 and we are there in 2-3 hours and ready to go and enjoy vacation.



I think you mean the Bolt.

Regarding vacation driving: My dream when I retire in 10-15 years is to buy a self-driving motorhome. Operate it like a cruise ship: go to bed at one campground, wake up at another. See the parts of the country you want to see without the stress of driving, and sleep through the parts you don't want to see.

The same theory could work for a regular car / van, and would take much of the hassle out of travelling.

But autonomous driving still has a long way to go. especially solving the poor visibility conditions problems, rain / snow / fog etc, so who knows if my motorhome will be ready for me when I am for it.

Seth
It's flare not flair, brakes not breaks, bridle not bridal, "could NOT care less" not "could care less".

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