Hurricane Irma and Climate Change

[airdvr 197]

I wonder how long it will take the Believers to equate Irma with climate change?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[kallend 1,621]

airdvr

I wonder how long it will take the Believers to equate Irma with climate change?

There is no hurricane. It's all another hoax by scientists looking for research grsnts.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[skinnay 0]

kallend

***I wonder how long it will take the Believers to equate Irma with climate change?

There is no hurricane. It's all another hoax by scientists looking for research grsnts.

just follow the money.

[billvon 2,380]

>There is no hurricane. It's all another hoax by scientists looking for research grsnts.

Well, maybe there is, but it's caused by lesbians.

[fasted3 0]

airdvr

I wonder how long it will take the Believers to equate Irma with climate change?

Are you kidding?
Is it really possible that a person in 2017 can will themselves deaf and blind enough to not see the changes we have made to this planet in the last, what, 20 years? Better yet, go back further; I can remember 1957, the year I became an amateur environmentalist, or tree hugger if you like.
I saw with my own, (watery,) eyes, and smelled and choked on the air in Los Angeles that year, and it made a Believer out of me.
I know that man can damage the air. And the rivers, and the lakes, and the land, and the oceans themselves.
Yes, it was a city, not a planet, I know.
I don't care! The lesson was there to see and I saw it.
If we did that to the whole planet, we would die.
There were about 3B humans then. The way I see it, we have been doing our best to turn the whole world into that ever since.
In the 1970's and 80's people started catching on, which was soon followed by a major effort to mislead and confuse by those few who stood to profit from burning oil.
And now we have a lot of people that deny what is right in front of their eyes.
Look at the Artic! Notice it's water and not ice? People in Alaska sure as heck know something is going on.
Try checking some weather data: High temp records are broken every time you look. How many record highs are there where you live that are dated before 2000?
Where I live we have had a 100 year flood, a 500 year flood, and a 1,000 year flood in the last 3 years
But yeah, my neighbor thinks it's all normal, so there's that.
If his prediction that we won't see another flood for 20 years comes true I'll be sure to let you know.
Oh well. The sad thing for me is that I think we missed our chance to fix this a long time ago... tipping points, and all that...
And yet you are here to mock people like me.
But to give you my answer to how I think this is related to climate change: Yes, I think a warmer planet can expect more of this, and a lot more in the years to come, thanks to human pollution.
I hope I'm wrong. I hope we don't flood for 20 years.
We'll see.

But what do I know?

[gowlerk 1,903]

airdvr

I wonder how long it will take the Believers to equate Irma with climate change?

No one can show that a particular storm, or even a blizzard has any particular cause. Hurricanes are a part of the system. But it is a fact that they draw energy from warm water. And it is a fact that the water is warmer.

That is all.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[airdvr 197]

fasted3

***I wonder how long it will take the Believers to equate Irma with climate change?

Are you kidding?
Is it really possible that a person in 2017 can will themselves deaf and blind enough to not see the changes we have made to this planet in the last, what, 20 years? Better yet, go back further; I can remember 1957, the year I became an amateur environmentalist, or tree hugger if you like.
I saw with my own, (watery,) eyes, and smelled and choked on the air in Los Angeles that year, and it made a Believer out of me.
I know that man can damage the air. And the rivers, and the lakes, and the land, and the oceans themselves.
Yes, it was a city, not a planet, I know.
I don't care! The lesson was there to see and I saw it.
If we did that to the whole planet, we would die.
There were about 3B humans then. The way I see it, we have been doing our best to turn the whole world into that ever since.
In the 1970's and 80's people started catching on, which was soon followed by a major effort to mislead and confuse by those few who stood to profit from burning oil.
And now we have a lot of people that deny what is right in front of their eyes.
Look at the Artic! Notice it's water and not ice? People in Alaska sure as heck know something is going on.
Try checking some weather data: High temp records are broken every time you look. How many record highs are there where you live that are dated before 2000?
Where I live we have had a 100 year flood, a 500 year flood, and a 1,000 year flood in the last 3 years
But yeah, my neighbor thinks it's all normal, so there's that.
If his prediction that we won't see another flood for 20 years comes true I'll be sure to let you know.
Oh well. The sad thing for me is that I think we missed our chance to fix this a long time ago... tipping points, and all that...
And yet you are here to mock people like me.
But to give you my answer to how I think this is related to climate change: Yes, I think a warmer planet can expect more of this, and a lot more in the years to come, thanks to human pollution.
I hope I'm wrong. I hope we don't flood for 20 years.
We'll see.

Not kidding. Attached is the record of storms to hit the US in the last 250 years. The trend is downward.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[jakee 1,254]

airdvr

Not kidding. Attached is the record of storms to hit the US in the last 250 years. The trend is downward.

What's the trend in the number of storms?

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[fasted3 0]

I looked at it.
What about this one?
See any trends here?

But what do I know?

[EvilGenius 0]

2010's aint over yet, so maybe scratch that one off and double check that trend of yours!

[airdvr 197]

fasted3

I looked at it.
What about this one?
See any trends here?

The surfaces of most tropical oceans have warmed by 0.25-0.5 degrees Celsius during the past several decades. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers that the likely primary cause of the rise in global mean surface temperature in the past 50 years is the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The global community of tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters as represented at the 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones of the World Meteorological Organization has released a statement on the links between anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change and tropical cyclones, including hurricanes and typhoons. This statement is in response to increased attention on tropical cyclones due to the following events:

a) There have been a number of recent high-impact tropical cyclone events around the globe. These include 10 landfalling tropical cyclones in Japan in 2004, five tropical cyclones affecting the Cook Islands in a five-week period in 2005, Cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar in 2004, Cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006, Typhoon Saomai in China in 2006, and the extremely active 2004 and 2005 Atlantic tropical cyclone seasons--including the catastrophic socio-economic impact of Hurricane Katrina.

b) Some recent scientific articles have reported a large increase in tropical cyclone energy, numbers, and wind-speeds in some regions during the last few decades in association with warmer sea surface temperatures. Other studies report that changes in observational techniques and instrumentation are responsible for these increases.

1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.

2. No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.

3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.

4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.

5. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.

6. It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.

7. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.

8. Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.

9. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.

10. If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.

https://www.wunderground.com/education/webster.asp

I know you really, really want climate change to have an impact on storms. Not quite yet.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[headoverheels 291]

fasted3

I looked at it.
What about this one?
See any trends here?

Not so much of a trend, once you sort by year instead of max wind.

[billeisele 122]

it's never major surgery until it's on you, then it's major

watching a hurricane on TV is nothing like being in it, we had Hugo in 1989 and know what this is about

SC declared a state of emergency yesterday and will have mandatory evacuations announced this weekend

folks are preparing, helping each other, taking in folks from FL, based on the level of preparation and number of homes with generators the residents will be much more self-sufficient than last time

the counties and utility companies have activated their storm plans, vacations are canceled, current predictions are the fun starts Monday evening

Give one city to the thugs so they can all live together. I vote for Chicago where they have strict gun laws.

[pchapman 261]

airdvr

I know you really, really want climate change to have an impact on storms. Not quite yet.

Argh, there's the problem with any politicized discussion these days. You start off with one of those one-sided nutter type statements that technically might apply to a small percentage on the far end of the spectrum, but seems to attack 50% of the spectrum as being idiots. Or maybe it doesn't say it, but can be taken to imply it.

Which then seems to require a counterattack, against a nutter who isn't reasonable and can't look at things rationally. And that's all seen, if someone jumps to conclusions, as a fault of the other 50%.

Then things degenerate into the counterarguments of why "You people are all nutjobs?", vs. "No, why are YOU people all nutjobs."

So I start thinking, oh, airdvr is one of those right wing nutjobs.

But then you go post something reasonable, something with good sources and nuanced conclusions, looking at perceptions compared to what information is available, and the various possible conclusions and uncertainties.

Of course it was a conversational gambit. Still, it makes every damn discussion a battle.

If your town changed the traffic light signal programs, and someone starts thinking "I get more red lights now!", that could be true or could be a psychological effect. To be investigated rather than pretending to strongly take one side in order to set up an ambush against anyone countering that strong statement.

[Phil1111 908]

fasted3

I looked at it.
What about this one?
See any trends here?

Shhhhhhhhh... its from Breitbart so it must be true.

There is science and there are the believers in fake news whereby science is all about money for researchers.

Meanwhile there are facts which can be debated instead of feelings...aka trump-think.

"A review of existing studies, including the ones cited above, lead us to conclude that it is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes."
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

This outfit's mission is:
"GFDL’s mission is to advance scientific understanding of climate and its natural and anthropogenic variations and impacts, and improve NOAA’s predictive capabilities, through the development and use of world-leading computer models of the Earth System."

So they produced the models that suggested Cat 5 for Irma before it was Cat 5 and develops tracks for the storm.

[kallend 1,621]

Phil1111

***I looked at it.
What about this one?
See any trends here?

Shhhhhhhhh... its from Breitbart so it must be true.

There is science and there are the believers in fake news whereby science is all about money for researchers.

Meanwhile there are facts which can be debated instead of feelings...aka trump-think.

"A review of existing studies, including the ones cited above, lead us to conclude that it is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes."
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

This outfit's mission is:
"GFDL’s mission is to advance scientific understanding of climate and its natural and anthropogenic variations and impacts, and improve NOAA’s predictive capabilities, through the development and use of world-leading computer models of the Earth System."

So they produced the models that suggested Cat 5 for Irma before it was Cat 5 and develops tracks for the storm.

We only have their word for that! It's all a hoax. Both Trump and Limbaugh have told us as much.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

airdvr

I wonder how long it will take the Believers to equate Irma with climate change?

It is a liberal conspiracy. Just ask Rush.

The Liberals are also making sure it is happening in Red states.

[jakee 1,254]

airdvr

4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.

But you're sure that there has been no change in measuring and classifying hurricanes since the mid 1800s that would alter the results of your graph?

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[normiss 620]

I just assumed god's wrath due to America sinning.

If that's actually the case, I'm screwed!

[DJL 232]

airdvr

I wonder how long it will take the Believers to equate Irma with climate change?

I don't know, go jump on the David Wolfe facebook page and I'm sure you'll get all the action you're looking for. Report back with your findings.

"I encourage all awesome dangerous behavior." - Jeffro Fincher

[kallend 1,621]

normiss

I just assumed god's wrath due to America sinning.

If that's actually the case, I'm screwed!

In all, nearly 70 percent of households were without power and 17 percent of Puerto Rico was without water, Gov. Ricardo Rosselló said on Thursday, but otherwise the island was largely unscathed.

“We would like to start out thanking the Almighty,” Mr. Rosselló said. “Our prayers were answered.”

They prayed for a destructive hurricane? Very odd.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[gowlerk 1,903]

Quote

They prayed for a destructive hurricane? Very odd.

No, they prayed for the worse to miss them and hammer Haiti or Cuba instead. Or failing that, Miami. It's beginning to look like that's what God wants anyway.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[gowlerk 1,903]

Part of the link explained in a simple way.

http://time.com/4931586/irma-hurricane-season-climate-change/?xid=homepage

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[airdvr 197]

gowlerk

Part of the link explained in a simple way.

http://time.com/4931586/irma-hurricane-season-climate-change/?xid=homepage

And we have a winner

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[gowlerk 1,903]

airdvr

***Part of the link explained in a simple way.

http://time.com/4931586/irma-hurricane-season-climate-change/?xid=homepage

And we have a winner


Who, me or Time Magazine? The story is not so much about Irma as the record rainfall from Harvey.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.