North Korea

[SkyDekker 1,121]

RMK

I see two chubby psychopaths with bad haircuts (photo attached)

They actually look better this way....

[ryoder 1,381]

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[ryoder 1,381]

wolfriverjoe

Don't kid yourself. KJU is a lot more stable and rational than most seem to think.

Someone agrees with you: https://www.vox.com/world/2017/5/9/15516278/north-korea-more-rational-than-you-think

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Yep.

From the article:

Quote

When we talk about a country or a leader being “rational” in the context of international relations, we’re not using it in the casual sense of “sensible.”

The term “rational” here means that a country’s government is capable of making logical calculations about its goals and interests and determining how to achieve them based on the resources — economic, military, diplomatic, etc. — at its disposal.

Countries have lots of different interests, but the most crucial one is self-preservation. A rational leader can take risky actions, but they wouldn’t purposely do something that would foreseeably lead to the total annihilation of their country.

And that’s really what we’re asking when we ask whether Kim Jong Un (or his father and grandfather before him) is rational: Is he bound by that fundamental survival instinct?

The whole article echoes what I was saying.

They know what they can get away with. They know how far they can push us.
They are not stupid or crazy.

And, on a lighter note (from FB):

If Trump really wants to destroy the DPRK, he should just borrow some money from the Russian mob, buy it and turn it into one of his casinos.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[kallend 1,623]

"[He]displays some “narcissistic personality traits.”

“He believes that the whole world revolves around him, so he exaggerates and overrates himself,” said the expert, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “His intelligence, power, success — it’s all a fantasy.”

Who is he talking about?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[billvon 2,395]

>They know what they can get away with. They know how far they can push us.
>They are not stupid or crazy.

I don't think they are "stupid or crazy." But they may well now believe their own propaganda. In a country where any outside news is censored, and you can be executed for delivering bad news, the odds of them acting rationally on false or misleading information is high.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

billvon

>They know what they can get away with. They know how far they can push us.
>They are not stupid or crazy.

I don't think they are "stupid or crazy." But they may well now believe their own propaganda. In a country where any outside news is censored, and you can be executed for delivering bad news, the odds of them acting rationally on false or misleading information is high.

Maybe, maybe not.

I'm gonna guess that KJU and his closest advisers have decent access to the outside world, to include both info and luxury goods.

Again, KJU's end game is to stay in power. I think he's smart enough to know that he needs good, accurate, realistic info to do that.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[Phil1111 910]

wolfriverjoe

***>They know what they can get away with. They know how far they can push us.
>They are not stupid or crazy.

I don't think they are "stupid or crazy." But they may well now believe their own propaganda. In a country where any outside news is censored, and you can be executed for delivering bad news, the odds of them acting rationally on false or misleading information is high.

Maybe, maybe not.

I'm gonna guess that KJU and his closest advisers have decent access to the outside world, to include both info and luxury goods.

Again, KJU's end game is to stay in power. I think he's smart enough to know that he needs good, accurate, realistic info to do that.

Oh they do. Both trump and Jong-un know war is not realistic. They have had nuclear weapons for years(2006). The Pukkuksong-1 is expected to deploy this year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pukkuksong-1

IMO Jong-un wants deployment options for the 60+ nuclear weapons that he has now in order to provide a firewall for all his other currency counterfeiting, weapons smuggling, technology trading scams that he runs in order to fund elite special interest groups in his government.

Its all bluster from trump and his N. Korean equal.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Phil1111

Oh they do. Both trump and Jong-un know war is not realistic. They have had nuclear weapons for years(2006). The Pukkuksong-1 is expected to deploy this year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pukkuksong-1

IMO Jong-un wants deployment options for the 60+ nuclear weapons that he has now in order to provide a firewall for all his other currency counterfeiting, weapons smuggling, technology trading scams that he runs in order to fund elite special interest groups in his government.

Its all bluster from trump and his N. Korean equal.

I'm not sure Trump is fully in touch with reality. He may be blustering and bluffing, he may think that nuclear war is "feasible". He's lived his entire life insulated, isolated and protected from life and consequences. He may well think that anything "bad" would only happen to the "little people".

Hopefully those further down the chain of command can prevent him from doing anything stupid.

KJU wants nukes and delivery systems to give him a 'security blanket'. The Vox story linked earlier addresses that.

And don't forget the drug trafficking by DPRK diplomats. They use the diplomatic bag and their diplomatic immunity to evade arrest.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[Phil1111 910]

wolfriverjoe

***

Oh they do. Both trump and Jong-un know war is not realistic. They have had nuclear weapons for years(2006). The Pukkuksong-1 is expected to deploy this year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pukkuksong-1

IMO Jong-un wants deployment options for the 60+ nuclear weapons that he has now in order to provide a firewall for all his other currency counterfeiting, weapons smuggling, technology trading scams that he runs in order to fund elite special interest groups in his government.

Its all bluster from trump and his N. Korean equal.

I'm not sure Trump is fully in touch with reality. He may be blustering and bluffing, he may think that nuclear war is "feasible". He's lived his entire life insulated, isolated and protected from life and consequences. He may well think that anything "bad" would only happen to the "little people".

Hopefully those further down the chain of command can prevent him from doing anything stupid.

KJU wants nukes and delivery systems to give him a 'security blanket'. The Vox story linked earlier addresses that.

And don't forget the drug trafficking by DPRK diplomats. They use the diplomatic bag and their diplomatic immunity to evade arrest.

Yeah but nuclear war would ruin trump's hotel business, golf business and Ivanka's fashion business. The horror, the horror, empty rooms and fairways.

[ryoder 1,381]

North Korea’s Missile Success Is Linked to Ukrainian Plant, Investigators Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-ukraine-factory.html

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[billvon 2,395]

Makes sense. The RD-250 is a bulletproof engine - understandable that they'd want to use it. Note that the US still uses engines from that plant as well; the RD-180 engines are used on the ULA's Atlas V launcher. Odd that the DoD would rely on Russian engines to launch their most sensitive payloads.

[DirtyChai 0]

wolfriverjoe

Don't kid yourself. KJU is a lot more stable and rational than most seem to think.

+1, good post.

I'd say that that, along with the rest of your reply is a pretty accurate assessment.

wolfriverjoe

His possession of nukes simply makes him more secure. We are less likely to attack if he has that option for retaliation. The idea of nukes that will fit on a missile doesn't change that much. Besides, he still has to figure out the missile itself. While they seem to be able to launch them sometimes, guidance and re-entry are still not there.
look at how much "fun" both the US and USSR had back in the 50s & 60s figuring it out.

But the question is, do we just let him figure it out and learn to live with a nuclear NK, or do we prevent it?

Who's to say that the next leader will be as "rational" as KJU.

Sometimes I wonder if Obama would've dealt with KJU differently if he knew Trump would one day become president. . .

[DougH 270]

KJU biggest risk doesn't come from the US, the west, or the outside world.

His risk is that he will be overthrown.

The nuke program, the crazy rhetoric, is all about pandering to his base.

Kind of like another man with small hands and a bad haircut.

"The restraining order says you're only allowed to touch me in freefall"
=P

[Phil1111 910]

DougH

KJU biggest risk doesn't come from the US, the west, or the outside world.

His risk is that he will be overthrown.

The nuke program, the crazy rhetoric, is all about pandering to his base.

Kind of like another man with small hands and a bad haircut.

As far as dictators go he is a curious position. Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein, Bashar al-Assad, were, or is,all tribal leaders. Jong-un is a solo family leader so to speak.

As such, his dynasty could end with a single bullet.

[ryoder 1,381]

Yesterday, BBC2 ran a one-hour show titled "North Korea: Murder in the Family".
I haven't watched it yet, but it is showing up on Youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9edq0InxJOo

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[nolhtairt 0]

Well North Korea has backed off its threat to shoot missiles near Guam. Both sides are dialing back the rhetoric a little bit.

However, expect it to resume next week when US forces team with South Korean forces in joint drills.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

DougH

KJU biggest risk doesn't come from the US, the west, or the outside world.

His risk is that he will be overthrown.

The nuke program, the crazy rhetoric, is all about pandering to his base.

Kind of like another man with small hands and a bad haircut.

Well, yes and no.

Any way he can get the world to react to his words and actions, any way the west calls him "dangerous", improves his stature in the DPRK. It's not really "pandering to his base" as much as it is 'convincing those under his control" how powerful he is.

As long as most (almost all) of the DPRK thinks he is the "Great and Powerful Outstanding Leader", he's more secure.

The nukes accomplish both that (making the DPRK think the west fears him) and keeps the west at bay a bit.

There's not any real way the west would attack, nukes or not. History since '53 has demonstrated that. He (and his dad & gramps) has too much ability to do too much damage, even conventionally.

The possession of nukes and the beginnings of delivery systems is just another layer on top.

History has shown that once past the 'tipping point', keeping countries from getting nukes is very, very difficult. India, Pakistan, Israel, South Africa (maybe) are all good examples of the failure of non-proliferation.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[ryoder 1,381]

ryoder

Yesterday, BBC2 ran a one-hour show titled "North Korea: Murder in the Family".
I haven't watched it yet, but it is showing up on Youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9edq0InxJOo

I watched this last night and it was an eye-opener.

As an example, this company seems legit, right?
http://glocom-corp.com/

Or maybe not: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-malaysia-arms-insight-idUSKBN1650YE

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[ryoder 1,381]

I was considering putting this in Billy's "You can't make this up" BF thread: http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/13851/north-koreas-recent-drills-featured-one-its-most-dangerous-weapons-the-ancient-an-2-biplane

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[yoink 321]

... and then they follow it up with something like this:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41078187

North Korea fires missile over Japan. Japanese government advises populations to evacuate to sturdy building or basement.

[normiss 622]

Meanwhile, all of Trump's threats are meaningless.






Thankfully.
Until NK hits something anyway.

[yoink 321]

So North Korea probably has a working thermonuclear bomb.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41140621


The bit I don't get is 'so what'? I'm curious what you guys think NK's end-game is.

Let's say they get everything they want out of thir development programme - a small enough warhead to fir on a reliable missile with a large yield. Then what? It's not like they can demand anything with the threat of a nuclear attack as the answer will be 'and we'll nuke you back. Welcome to MAD'.
In fact, once they complete their development (to a certain level), it seems as though they actually LOSE negotiating power. At the moment they can trade for cancelling their development and testing. They're never going to be able to trade for not nuking people.

What do you think?

[Phil1111 910]

normiss

Meanwhile, all of Trump's threats are meaningless.






Thankfully.
Until NK hits something anyway.

"President Trump has instructed advisers to prepare to withdraw the United States from a free-trade agreement with South Korea, several people close to the process said, a move that would stoke economic tensions with the U.S. ally as both countries confront a crisis over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program."
https://www.google.ca/search?dcr=0&q=trump+tweets+cancel+SK+trade+deal&spell=1&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiv0P-1nInWAhUIwYMKHcISChoQvwUIJSgA&biw=1248&bih=791 Third link is free read.

"President Trump targeted South Korea just hours after North Korea's latest nuclear test, saying that "talk of appeasement" with Pyongyang will not work.

"South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!" Trump tweeted Sunday."
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/349027-trump-targets-s-korea-their-talk-of-appeasement-with-north-korea-will

More bla bla bla from trump. With friends like trump and the USA South Korea may need nukes of its own. trumps own security council has told the wondernut that there would be 10 million South Korean casualties in the opening days of a Korea conflict.

"These are not normal times.

The man in the White House is reckless and unmanageable, a danger to the Constitution, a threat to our democratic institutions."
Above from a seven part LA Times editorial on trump
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-ed-trump-enough/

This is the person making the decisions on NK, nuclear war.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

yoink

So North Korea probably has a working thermonuclear bomb.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41140621


The bit I don't get is 'so what'? I'm curious what you guys think NK's end-game is.

Let's say they get everything they want out of their development program - a small enough warhead to fit on a reliable missile with a large yield. Then what? It's not like they can demand anything with the threat of a nuclear attack as the answer will be 'and we'll nuke you back. Welcome to MAD'.
In fact, once they complete their development (to a certain level), it seems as though they actually LOSE negotiating power. At the moment they can trade for cancelling their development and testing. They're never going to be able to trade for not nuking people.

What do you think?

I've said it a couple times. KJU's end game is to stay in power.
While the idea of taking over the ROK and "reunifying" the Korean Peninsula may be something he'd like to do, he knows that's not going to happen.

There really aren't any other regional conquests he can aspire to.

So he wants to keep control.

As was noted in the Vox article posted a while back, he saw perfectly well what happened in Iraq & Libya. Both SH & MK had nuke programs that didn't produce in the end. Both of them fell under western attack.

KJU knows that. He knows if he has MAD available to him, he won't be subject to that.
He knows (and he knows that we know) that if anyone really attacks him, he can retaliate.

He also knows that the west (including ROK) lack the will to actually stand up to him (or his dad & gramps).

Having a thermo-nuclear device and a delivery system will just give him that much more security.

And don't forget that the delivery system is still not there. He's got the launch sort of working, but (as I've noted before) guidance and re-entry aren't there. And they are hard.

So don't expect to see reliable delivery soon. Maybe not for a long time. Maybe never.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo