North Korea

[billvon 2,392]

So far we have a madman running North Korea whose one superpower is outlandish threats. And we have a president who thinks emotionally, ignores his advisers, briefings and military counsel and gives military orders publicly via Twitter. And who has now gotten into an "outlandish threat" arms race with NK.

And people like this have his ear:
========================
'God has given Trump authority to take out Kim Jong Un,' evangelical adviser says
By Sarah Pulliam Bailey
August 9 2017
WaPo

Texas megachurch pastor Robert Jeffress, one of President Trump’s evangelical advisers who preached the morning of his inauguration, has released a statement saying the president has the moral authority to “take out” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

“When it comes to how we should deal with evildoers, the Bible, in the book of Romans, is very clear: God has endowed rulers full power to use whatever means necessary — including war — to stop evil,” Jeffress said. “In the case of North Korea, God has given Trump authority to take out Kim Jong Un.”

Jeffress said in a phone interview that he was prompted to make the statement after Trump said that if North Korea’s threats to the United States continue, Pyongyang will be “met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”

The biblical passage Romans 13 gives the government authority to deal with evildoers, Jeffress said. “That gives the government … the authority to do whatever, whether it’s assassination, capital punishment or evil punishment to quell the actions of evildoers like Kim Jong Un,” he said.

He said that many pacifist Christians will cite Romans 12, which says, “Do not repay evil for evil,” but Jeffress says that the passage is referring to Christians, not to the government.

“A Christian writer asked me, ‘Don’t you want the president to embody the Sermon on the Mount?’ ” he said, referring to Jesus’s sermon. “I said absolutely not.”
. . .
Over the past two years, Jeffress said, Trump has been “very measured, very thoughtful in every response.”

“People instinctively know that this president is not going to draw an imaginary red line and walk around it like President Obama did,” he said.
=======================
(Of course, Trump then went and did just that.)

[CygnusX-1 42]

I don't really get why people are up in arms about this. Trump lies about everything else. Why should his statements here be any different? You think this is the one and only time he is not lying?

[billvon 2,392]

>Trump lies about everything else. Why should his statements here be any
>different?

Because they could start a war? Keep in mind that Kim Jong Un isn't all that stable or rational to begin with, so saying "well, rational people know that Trump lies all the time" might not have much meaning when it comes to North Korea.

[nolhtairt 0]

billvon

>Trump lies about everything else. Why should his statements here be any
>different?

Because they could start a war? Keep in mind that Kim Jong Un isn't all that stable or rational to begin with, so saying "well, rational people know that Trump lies all the time" might not have much meaning when it comes to North Korea.

Who knows just how rational and stable Kim Jong Un is? He's extremely pissed off for sure and believes the US is behind the latest UN sanctions that China and Russia (their lone allies) agreed to. What remains to be seen is whether he's bluffing or is actually going to carry out the plan of shooting missiles in Guam's direction.

NK has been known to poke and prod their enemies to see what kind of response they get. I think we've been very restrained in the past, but of course, Trump wasn't POTUS until 6 months ago.

[kallend 1,622]

billvon

>Trump lies about everything else. Why should his statements here be any
>different?

Because they could start a war? Keep in mind that Kim Jong Un isn't all that stable or rational to begin with, so saying "well, rational people know that Trump lies all the time" might not have much meaning when it comes to North Korea.

Apparently irrational behavior can actually be a rational response to assymmetric power between adversaries.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[billvon 2,392]

>What remains to be seen is whether he's bluffing or is actually going to carry out
>the plan of shooting missiles in Guam's direction.

Agreed. But for the sake of the people living in North Korea (and the people in Japan, and South Korea, and anyone who relies on the Pacific for food) it's better if he doesn't launch nuclear missiles towards Guam, even if they miss. Thus prodding him to do that is a bad idea.

If you keep whacking at a bee's nest with a stick, and the bees eventually come after you, you bear some of the responsibility for getting stung. Even if the bees are doing the stinging.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

billvon

Keep in mind that Kim Jong Un isn't all that stable or rational to begin with, so saying "well, rational people know that Trump lies all the time" might not have much meaning when it comes to North Korea.

Don't kid yourself. KJU is a lot more stable and rational than most seem to think.

If you look at it from a detached, outside point of view, his actions make a lot of sense.

What is his endgame?
Stay in power.

What is his biggest threat?
Internal dissent from his own "court". Don't forget how he killed his own brother.

How can he best maintain power?
Make everyone (especially the entire DPRK) think he is the "Great and Powerful Outstanding Leader" (cue smoke and flames effect).

What can he actually do?
1) - Attack the ROK conventionally. He could make a huge mess but in the end would be destroyed. He and the DPRK would cease to exist.
2) - Attack the ROK, Japan or perhaps US territory with nukes. It would be a much bigger mess, but in the end would end the same. He & the DPRK would cease to exist.
3) - Keep 'poking the bear' and continue on.

"3" is where it's at and where it's been for a long time. There have been (roughly) a bazillion border incidents, commando raids (including kidnapping of civilians), shell attacks and even the sinking of the ROK Navy ship Cheonan.

And what happened?
International "condemnation" and sanctions. The sanctions do very little because the DPRK is almost completely isolated. It keeps the civilian population from getting a certain amount of aid, but KJU doesn't care about that.
The condemnation makes KJU look like the rest of the world actually fears him and that he is the "Great and Powerful Outstanding Leader (cue smoke & flames effect again).

All of this theater is directed internally. He likely doesn't care much about the outside world. He just wants to run the DPRK.

His possession of nukes simply makes him more secure. We are less likely to attack if he has that option for retaliation. The idea of nukes that will fit on a missile doesn't change that much. Besides, he still has to figure out the missile itself. While they seem to be able to launch them sometimes, guidance and re-entry are still not there.
look at how much "fun" both the US and USSR had back in the 50s & 60s figuring it out.

KJU knows perfectly well that his baiting and teasing won't provoke an attack. Even if Trump was stupid enough to order an attack, the SecDef & JSC would likely over-rule the order unless KJU & the DPRK attacked first.
Trump's immaturity and impulsiveness are simply playing right into KJU's game.

KJU provokes, Trump responds with a stupid tweet.

KJU shows his people how much the US (most powerful country in the world) is afraid of the DPRK's "Great and Powerful Outstanding Leader (more smoke & flames) and the DPRK never notice the fat little man behind the curtain (where in the hell is Toto when you need him?)

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[yoink 321]

Anybody who was raised on the idea of unlimited personal power with no accountability is going to have a seriously warped world-view.

Look at Trump - he was raised with a silver spoon up his arse and has never been told no in his life, and that's one of the reasons he's acting like a petulant child now he's president. KJU is like that writ large.

[ryoder 1,381]

wolfriverjoe

KJU knows perfectly well that his baiting and teasing won't provoke an attack. Even if Trump was stupid enough to order an attack, the SecDef & JSC would likely over-rule the order unless KJU & the DPRK attacked first.

Where in the procedures do SecDef & JSC have the authority to do that?
A man was fired for questioning if an insane POTUS could be prevented from ordering a nuclear strike:

Take first link at top of page to avoid paywall: https://www.google.com/search?q=What+if+the+president+ordering+a+nuclear+attack+isn%27t+sane%3F&oq=What+if+the+president+ordering+a+nuclear+attack+isn%27t+sane%3F&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i59.772j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

I don't know if there are formal procedures or not. There is a fair amount of debate going on about using the 25th.

But from the story:

Quote

As Rosenbaum chillingly writes, Nixon during the mid-1970s was under close watch by advisers concerned that he “seemed to be losing control over his own mind.” Defense secretary James Schlesinger issued a quiet decree that he be consulted if Nixon gave any “unusual orders.”

I'm going to guess that something along those lines has happened, is happening or will happen. Or at least I hope so. There are some pretty decent and professional folks in the upper reaches of the Pentagon. If they refuse an idiotic attack order, Trump will likely try to fire them. That would probably set off a chain of events that would end up with Trump being "25th'd."

We've already pretty much reached the point where the admin people have said to ignore Trump's tweets.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[gowlerk 1,904]

Quote

Where in the procedures do SecDef & JSC have the authority to do that?

The command and control system is designed to give the POTUS unlimited discretion and the ability to act with great speed in this area. He does not need to consult anyone, he just needs to summon the aide who carries the codes. SecDef and JSC may not be anywhere near the man when the time comes. Those further down the chain have no idea what the circumstances are, just that a firing order has been given to them. They are very well trained to carry out those orders.

If Trump, or any POTUS decides to start a war with missiles there is no one with the power to stop him or her. Please be careful who you vote for in the future.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[normiss 622]

Quote

Please be careful who you vote for in the future.

Given the results of the last election, this may not help as much as we thought it did.

[ryoder 1,381]

gowlerk

If Trump, or any POTUS decides to start a war with missiles there is no one with the power to stop him or her.

This is correct, and here is what happens: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-nuclear-weapon-launch/

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

gowlerk

Quote

Where in the procedures do SecDef & JSC have the authority to do that?

The command and control system is designed to give the POTUS unlimited discretion and the ability to act with great speed in this area. He does not need to consult anyone, he just needs to summon the aide who carries the codes. SecDef and JSC may not be anywhere near the man when the time comes. Those further down the chain have no idea what the circumstances are, just that a firing order has been given to them. They are very well trained to carry out those orders.

If Trump, or any POTUS decides to start a war with missiles there is no one with the power to stop him or her. Please be careful who you vote for in the future.

Yes and no.

In the event of an attack, or an imminent one, then yes, the Pres orders the launch and it goes.

But without that urgency, without that emergency situation, it would be likely that the chain of command would refuse. The guy carrying the codes might be the one to refuse, the SecDef might counter it, overall, it's unlikely that the order would be carried out.

https://debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Debunking-a-president-of-the-US-could-order-a-nuclear-attack-at-a-moments-notice-on-a-whim

The guy in the story above that Ryoder linked was a "spear carrier", a silo guy. It was his job to follow orders. Questioning those orders will get you fired.
For the upper levels of command, they are supposed to exercise judgement and discretion.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[gowlerk 1,904]

Quote

For the upper levels of command, they are supposed to exercise judgement and discretion.

The upper levels of command are not at the Trump's country club hideaway with him. The guy carrying the codes does not know the nature of the phone call the POTUS just received. There are several possible scenarios that could result in a first strike decided upon by the POTUS without any consultation.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[normiss 622]

100% chance Trump mistakes the eclipse for North Korea nuking the sun?

[okalb 78]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/10/politics/trump-north-korea/index.html

Time flies like an arrow....fruit flies like a banana

[RMK 3]

I see two chubby psychopaths with bad haircuts (photo attached)

"Pain is the best instructor, but no one wants to attend his classes"

[billvon 2,392]

>Where in the procedures do SecDef & JSC have the authority to do that?

Nowhere - but it's happening. The head of the Coast Guard just refused to implement the trans ban, for example.

[ryoder 1,381]

RMK

I see two chubby psychopaths with bad haircuts (photo attached)

See attached.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[ryoder 1,381]

billvon

>Where in the procedures do SecDef & JSC have the authority to do that?

Nowhere - but it's happening. The head of the Coast Guard just refused to implement the trans ban, for example.

Did he ever actually issue an official order to the military?
AFAIK, they don't take orders from POTUS via dumbass tweets.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[billvon 2,392]

>Did he ever actually issue an official order to the military?

"The president is president of the United States, so [his tweets] are considered official statements by the president of the United States."

People are debating this, of course. But at least one military leader has found some wiggle room, and decided that his tweets are not official statements - even though that directly contradicts statements by the administration.

I expect this sort of defiance to grow. It's unprecedented, of course - but so is this presidency.

[ryoder 1,381]

Ahhh...so he will order a nuclear strike on NK via tweet.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[gowlerk 1,904]

billvon

>Did he ever actually issue an official order to the military?

"The president is president of the United States, so [his tweets] are considered official statements by the president of the United States."

People are debating this, of course. But at least one military leader has found some wiggle room, and decided that his tweets are not official statements - even though that directly contradicts statements by the administration.

I expect this sort of defiance to grow. It's unprecedented, of course - but so is this presidency.

Even if his tweets are "official statements" they would not change policy. There is a chain of command and a procedure established to issue orders. A tweet can never be an order. He would have to follow up. Not part of his style to follow up or look after details.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

ryoder

Ahhh...so he will order a nuclear strike on NK via tweet.

And, of course, reveal the launch codes to the entire world in doing so.

I'm stuck between "Alice In Wonderland" and "Monty Python".

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo