0
piisfish

Who will be the next POTUS?

Recommended Posts

I am usually negative trying to be positive and have some hope. I can't see how he is not the obvious choice. He is getting my vote even if I have to write him in.

I consider a Hillary or trump win a loss for all of us.
I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All you have to do is believe that they do and vote till one day it will be normal to have more then two options. It might happen this time as I don't think the candidates can get any worst but as they get more of the vote more will believe for a next time. I vote for them because I agree most with them. I am socially liberal more liberal then any left I know and fiscally more conservative then the most right wing guys I know.
I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
normiss

How does one state equal 270 votes?



Quote

Libertarians are currently caught in between Donald Trump supporters and Hillary Clinton supporters screaming at us for voting for the Libertarian Party. They claim our votes belong to them and those votes are needed to help prevent Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump being elected President, respectively. Both sides say that Gary Johnson, the presumptive Libertarian Party nominee, doesn’t stand a chance in a general election and will only serve as a spoiler. Both of these arguments are false. In fact, there’s even a way that Gary Johnson could be elected President. If Gary Johnson can win his home state of New Mexico he could be elected President by the House of Representatives.

As we all remember from elementary school, the President isn’t elected by the popular vote but by the Electoral College. The 12th Amendment sets up the system by which state electors are appointed or elected and are supposed to vote for the candidate that wins the popular vote of their state. The Electoral College requires that in order to be elected President a candidate must win a majority of these votes. Right now, a Presidential candidate has to win 270 electoral votes to be elected President.



If no one candidate is able to achieve an outright majority, then the fate of the election falls to the House of Representatives. The newly elected House decides when they take office in January and each state delegation is granted one vote. The Congressmen from that state vote amongst themselves, and then cast their one vote as a whole. Congressmen are not required to vote for who won their state. They are only required to vote for one of the top three finishers.

This rare scenario presents the perfect opportunity for Gary Johnson in 2016. As you can see on the electoral college map above, if Gary Johnson can win his home state of New Mexico, neither candidate would win 270 electoral votes. This would throw the election to the House of Representatives.

Now, you might say that the Republican controlled House would just vote for Trump in this scenario. But would they? Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has specifically attacked Trump in the past and refused to endorse him. Dozens of other Congressmen have spoken out against Trump as well. If given the opportunity, Ryan could instead lead House Republicans to vote for Gary Johnson.

This move would not be controversial. Gary Johnson is a former two-term Republican Governor of New Mexico. He has the fiscally conservative executive experience that Republicans are looking for as well as the socially tolerant stances Democrats would appreciate. Johnson would be the perfect compromise candidate that also represents the majority of Americans.

Of course, for this plan to work, Gary Johnson would have to campaign heavily in New Mexico. He would have to remind the voters who already voted for him twice what makes him a better choice than Trump or Clinton. That alone might not be too difficult.

For a plurality in the state they would need around 300,000 votes. With a popular former Governor on the ballot this could easily be achieved. New Mexico’s five electoral votes would then go to Gary Johnson.

If the rest of the map fell into place as it is above, neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton would reach 270 and the House would decide the President. Republicans could then vote for Gary Johnson with a clear conscious knowing that they didn’t hand the White House over to a lunatic or a Democrat.

This is just one potential general election scenario, but it is the most likely way that Gary Johnson can win the Presidency.


Stupidity if left untreated is self-correcting
If ya can't be good, look good, if that fails, make 'em laugh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

This rare scenario presents the perfect opportunity for Gary Johnson in 2016. As you can see on the electoral college map above, if Gary Johnson can win his home state of New Mexico, neither candidate would win 270 electoral votes. This would throw the election to the House of Representatives.


Current polling in NM has Clinton 41%, Trump 33% and Johnson 14%. A Johnson win of even his home state is unlikely given he is polling at less than half of what Trump is polling at.

But even if he did win his state, the current 538 split (historically fairly accurate) shows the final electoral score with Clinton winning 369 electoral votes. Even if you remove all the states where she leads with LESS than a 5% margin (i.e. the states in play) she's at 285.

So while I would love to see Johnson have a shot at winning (or even taking a few states, which will at least make the Libertarian party a more viable option in the future) it's just not in the cards unless something changes very dramatically.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
billvon


So while I would love to see Johnson have a shot at winning (or even taking a few states, which will at least make the Libertarian party a more viable option in the future) it's just not in the cards unless something changes very dramatically.



Hey, Trump still has almost 3 more months to keep shoving his foot deeper in his mouth.;)
"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bolas

He has the fiscally conservative executive experience that Republicans are looking for as well as the socially tolerant stances Democrats would appreciate.



Both of those statements are utter jokes. Reps are about as fiscally conservative as Democrats are tolerant of open mindedness.

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Darius11

All you have to do is believe that they do and vote till one day it will be normal to have more then two options. It might happen this time as I don't think the candidates can get any worst but as they get more of the vote more will believe for a next time. I vote for them because I agree most with them. I am socially liberal more liberal then any left I know and fiscally more conservative then the most right wing guys I know.



Actually, no. What you have to do is have a party that is also putting members into legislative positions at an equal rate to that of a major party. Third party members coming out of the blue every four years does nothing to put a third party President into office. First you have to be able to say "Green Party Candidate, Libertarian Candidate, Federalist Candidate" before that person can do anything but at best come in third and disrupt votes for one of the two actual contenders. Also, having a convention where nobody strips and nobody wears a boot on their head helps the candidate to be taken seriously.

And before anyone says something about the Republican party and Lincoln, read up to learn that they had formed majorities in the states before Lincoln's election.
"I encourage all awesome dangerous behavior." - Jeffro Fincher

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
>where do you get your news from?

I am going with Breitbart, the O'Reilly Report and Newsmax.

Newsmax:
=======
A Simple Explanation Why Trump Will Win

By Denis Kleinfeld
Sunday, 14 Aug 2016 10:36 PM More Posts by Denis Kleinfeld

While watching Phelps win his 23rd gold medal I realized that wherever he went he was treated with great deference. It was just understood that Phelps as the dominate athlete was the leader of the Olympic team.

That’s the way people act in society. People want and need strong leadership.
Trump is a 6’4’ vigorous male whose voice and tone are most engaging when speaking carefully. When he walks onto a stage it is as if he owns the whole studio. He dominated every primary debate against all the other well-funded and experienced Republican contenders. And he controls the news today. His campaign, like everything else he has done in life, is all Trump.

. . . .

Why do I think Mr. Trump will win the debates and ultimately the presidential election?

My explantion is simple.

In this election cycle, Mr. Trump is the Alpha Dog of the pack.
=============

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
billvon

=======
In this election cycle, Mr. Trump is the Alpha Dog of the pack.
=============



Animal instincts are not to be discounted, however, if this really were an "alpha dog" situation, I think Hillary probably could best Trump in a fist fight.






Especially what with his tiny hands and all.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

0