Today is the Brexit vote. We have lots of bets going, what do you think?

[winsor 185]

jakee

***
No
this is a good deal
The people are frustrated

The people being frustrated has nothing to do with whether the deal is good. The people don't have a clue what the deal is either way. For instance, one of the pro Brexit campaigns was driving a bus around saying that the £350M a week we send to the EU (much of which we get back anyway, and a lot of which we'd still need to spend to be part of the free market) could be spent on the NHS instead. Now, mere hours aft the referendum results, another Pro Brexit campaigner was asked if we could now spend those funds on the NHS and he said "Of course we can't, it doesn't work that way".

That's the sort of accuracy of information people are working from. There's a reason most countries elect politicians to make decisions for them, it's because the politicians then theoretically have the time to really learn how things work before they fuck with them. Leaving major, emotional issues up to the general mass of the population is kinda like giving a tweenager the keys to a Ferrari. They've seen other people drive it and they think they know what to do but it's not going to end well.

I agree with you on this one.

Regardless of the merits, 'independence' has many of the downsides of either a divorce or separation of conjoined twins.

For all the emotional reasons why countries want to be independent, doing so is rarely painless. Scotland and Quebec opted to stifle their separatist bent to avoid the inevitable pain. I hope Great Britain does not serve as 'Mr. Bad Example.'

In politics and warfare, one can get people to act against their best interests by appealing to emotions, one way or another. Fear and anger can cause otherwise brilliant people to behave as complete morons, and morons to behave as idiots.

I could be wrong, and this might turn out to be a non-event. I suspect, however, that it is rather a black swan.

What the hell, it was fun while it lasted.


BSBD,

Winsor

[piisfish 135]

RonD1120

Pain precedes reason. America is very likely next.

next to leave the EU ?

scissors beat paper, paper beat rock, rock beat wingsuit - KarlM

[Nataly 38]

The result of the vote comes as a shock and I am very saddened by it. Yes, we all knew it would be close... But ultimately I thought/hoped "remain" would have it.

I cannot see any upside for people like me who live outside of the UK...

Only time will tell...

"There is no problem so bad you can't make it worse."
- Chris Hadfield
« Sors le martinet et flagelle toi indigne contrôleuse de gestion. »
- my boss

[ryoder 1,381]

Nataly

I cannot see any upside for people like me who live outside of the UK...

Well, literally overnight it became 8% cheaper for anyone holding US dollars to purchase English goods.
So maybe I'll watch the price of the Triumph Street Triple.
On the downside, the US stock market had its worst opening since 1986, and I've lost enough this morning to buy two Street Triples.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[normiss 620]

Ouch.
Dumb asses.
Trump said it was a good thing, so there's that nugget to consider.

[ryoder 1,381]

normiss

Trump said it was a good thing, so there's that nugget to consider.

Yes, when he said that, we knew for sure it was a bad idea.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[yoink 321]

This morning 48% of the British public have come to the conclusion that 52% of their neighbors are morons.

There was pretty much no good reason to leave the EU apart from the transient 'feel-good' factor of giving two fingers to Europe. The special exemptions that were in place for the UK let us meddle in European politics while being relatively shielded from the results. That's just been pissed into the wind.

Great Britain has now lost the security of a mutual defense agreement, and has vastly reduced any influence it had in global economic negotiations. Now we're just an isolated little island.

To top it off we now potentially have Prime Minister Boris Johnson who is the equivalent of our Trump... He has no understanding of reality but is very good at pandering to what people want to hear.

Oh, and Scotland will probably vote to leave Great Britain as a result of this. Maybe Norther Ireland too, but that's a little more complicated.

That the entire campaign has been run on emotional fears and outright lies for something as serious as this is disgusting.

[quade 3]

rushmc

Here in the states the politicians are supposed to elected to represent their constituencies NOT make decisions for them.

I don't know what country you're thinking of, but the US is a Republic. We do indeed vote for people to make decisions for us.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[rushmc 18]

quade

***Here in the states the politicians are supposed to elected to represent their constituencies NOT make decisions for them.

I don't know what country you're thinking of, but the US is a Republic. We do indeed vote for people to make decisions for us.

Based on the views of the majority if his or her constituents.
Not their own beliefs.

And we are a Representative Republic.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[TriGirl 268]

ryoder

***
Trump said it was a good thing, so there's that nugget to consider.

Yes, when he said that, we knew for sure it was a bad idea.
Evidence that he doesn't know his audience: he said it to Scots, who voted 68% to remain (and as many have already noted, will possibly vote whether to leave the UK to remain in the EU independently).

See the upside, and always wear your parachute! -- Christopher Titus

Shut Up & Jump!

[Boomerdog 0]

Quote

i think it will be remain as change is difficult, people don't really like change, so stuck on the fence, most will vote remain or not at all.

"...Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."

An excerpt from the Declaration of Independence
In the Continental Congress of the United States
July 4, 1776

And with a little variation with apologies to Sir Winston Spencer Churchill:

"Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves, that if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, This was (one) their finest hour.(s)"

June 18, 1940
In a speech to the House of Commons
Before the commencement of the Battle of Britain.

[kallend 1,621]

rushmc

******Here in the states the politicians are supposed to elected to represent their constituencies NOT make decisions for them.

I don't know what country you're thinking of, but the US is a Republic. We do indeed vote for people to make decisions for us.

Based on the views of the majority if his or her constituents.
Not their own beliefs.



In a Pew Research poll 85 percent of Americans favored background checks on all private gun sales and gun show sales – a step further than the president proposed.

85% is a big majority, being thwarted by the GOP.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[jakee 1,254]

rushmc

Quote

The people don't have a clue what the deal is either way.

This would have to include you then?

I am part of the people.

Quote

Here in the states the politicians are supposed to elected to represent their constituencies NOT make decisions for them.

You spelled 'fairyland' wrong.

Quote

You have gone back to your old stance that if the people disagree with you or vote contrary to your views they must be uninformed, uneducated stupid or worse.

Except that's actually your own specifically stated view, repeated every time anyone voted for Barack Obama.

Quote

Now you get to live with it

We all do. And like all the other people under 40, who overwhelmingly voted against it, I probably have to live with it a lot longer than the people who made it happen.

Quote

or move.

Ironically that's one of the things that's probably about to get a lot more difficult, and one of the reasons I'd have preferred Remain.

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[gowlerk 1,903]

Quote

On the downside, the US stock market had its worst opening since 1986, and I've lost enough this morning to buy two Street Triples.Mad

There is a phrase to describe when the market plunges like that for temporary speculative and emotional reasons. It's called "a buying opportunity".

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[gowlerk 1,903]

I am not in the least surprised by this outcome. The British people and Europeans in general have been bombarded by a steady stream of negative news regarding the EU. Greece was allowed to cheat on it's obligations resulting in an inevitable crash, and more of the smaller southern countries will be joining the crash soon. Even Italy looks to be in bad shape. Free migration of people has been a real burden on the better economies. The refugee crisis has been mismanaged, although it is hard to see any good way of managing it. And Brussels is rightly seen as a massive entitled bureaucracy.

The only real surprise to me is that size of the margin.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[ryoder 1,381]

yoink

To top it off we now potentially have Prime Minister Boris Johnson who is the equivalent of our Trump... He has no understanding of reality but is very good at pandering to what people want to hear.

I just googled Boris, and saw a photo.
Now I understand this sign I saw earlier!

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[billvon 2,380]

>>Now you get to live with it

>We all do.

And some people aren't liking it already:

==============
EU Referendum: "Leave Cornwall" Demands Government Replaces EU Millions
24/06/2016 14:49

Sara C Nelson

The leader of Cornwall Council has demanded the UK Government replaces the £60million a year of EU support it will lose as a result of the Brexit vote.

John Pollard issued an urgent statement amidst the news UK had voted to leave the EU. He said: “Now that we know the UK will be leaving the EU we will be taking urgent steps to ensure that the UK Government protects Cornwall’s position in any negotiations.

“We will be insisting that Cornwall receives investment equal to that provided by the EU programme which have averaged £60m per year over the last ten years.”

Cornwall voted Leave at 182,665 to 140,540 who balloted Remain.

Nationwide voter turnout for the EU Referendum was 72.2%, with 51.9% voting Leave and 48.1% balloting Remain.

A statement from the council claimed it had been reassured by the Leave campaign prior to the referendum, that a decision to leave the EU would not affect the EU funding which had already been allocated to the area.

It also asked for assurances that Cornwall would “not be worse off in terms of the investment we receive.”

It added: “We will now be studying the impact of this decision on Cornwall, both now and in the future. Because of Cornwall’s relatively weak economy, compared to the rest of Europe, Cornwall has received significant amounts of funding from the EU over the past 15 years and we will be seeking confirmation that this allocation, based on need, will continue in the future.”

The county receives the most money in England, reports the BBC, citing the following figures from the EU Commission:

£400m of EU funding between 2000-2006
£500m of EU funding between 2007-2013
£416m of further funding coming between 2014-2020

The news appears to back research which shows regions with the biggest votes for Leave are also the most economically dependent on the EU.
================

"Well, sure, we're leaving, and screw them, but . . . . they're still going to send us money, right? Right?"

[jakee 1,254]

Quote

I suspect, however, that it is rather a black swan.

Natalie Portman's going to die at the end?

Shit, this just keeps getting worse

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[jakee 1,254]

Quote

"Well, sure, we're leaving, and screw them, but . . . . they're still going to send us money, right? Right?"

Yep.

Similarly South Wales (to be fair a horribly depressed post-industrial mining area full of understandably desperate people) voted to leave, with a lot of people citing the money the UK pays to the EU as a major reason... while the area is one of the biggest net recipients of government spending vs taxes paid in the country, and also the biggest British recipient of EU aid.

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[muff528 3]

On the plus side, the UK would no longer be on the hook for the £13 billion payment (2015) to the EU, so some of that money could be used to replace the £60 million that Cornwall now gets from the EU. According to these folks (I have no idea who they are), if the UK picked up all of the EU's payments to the UK, they would still come out £8.5 billion ahead. Obviously, looking at just that one point as a "closed system", so who really knows how this will play out in reality (jobs, trade deals, security, etc.)

[jakee 1,254]

rushmc

Based on the views of the majority if his or her constituents.
Not their own beliefs.

Absolutely untrue. Elected congressmen and Senators (just like our MPs) are under absolutely no duty, obligation or requirement to vote according to the wishes of their constituents. (Practical point, how could they? No-one knows what most people in a given area want on any and every issue that crosses the governments desk). That's why we have election campaigns - so potential politicians can tell the people what they believe and what they want to do (you may be familiar with the word 'manifesto') and the people vote for the guy whose vision most closely matches their own. Or the guy with better hair.

Anyway, think about it, if what you say is true why would we even need different parties? Democrats and Republicans from the same areas would all vote the same ways. Does that happen? Does it fuck.

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[mr2mk1g 10]

rushmc

Did you even read what you wrote?

Like what I see as the key line of you post.

Quote

The people don't have a clue what the deal is either way.

This would have to include you then?

BTW

Here in the states the politicians are supposed to elected to represent their constituencies NOT make decisions for them.

But anyway....

You have gone back to your old stance that if the people disagree with you or vote contrary to your views they must be uninformed, uneducated stupid or worse.
Proof from your own post
***Leaving major, emotional issues up to the general mass of the population is kinda like giving a tweenager the keys to a Ferrari

That is a mighty high horse you have placed yourself on.

The people have decided.
The people are not that stupid.


Now you get to live with it or move.
You do have a choice.


The way in which you have misread Jakee's post makes it clear that you do not understand the issues raised by this referendum.

You have, understandably as someone who doesn't know about the issues, read his words entirely incorrectly.

He says "the people don't have clue what the deal is either way" and you criticise him because you think that he's espousing the view that whoever doesn't agree with him must be "uninformed, uneducated stupid or worse".

That's not what he meant by saying nobody knows what the deal is.

His point is, nobody knows what the deal is. Nobody.

So we've voted out - what does that mean? We don't know.

Does it mean we will no longer have access to the single market? Maybe - if we refuse to accept freedom of movement (like those who are worried about legal migration within the EU want) then we wont get access to the single market. That means trade barriers and tariffs. That's going to massively impact the economy.

But there's a very strong likelihood that we will accept freedom of movement because we want access to the single market because we don't want our economy to tank. So what of all those promises about controlling migration?

But which is it? We don't know. The out campaigners don't even know.

What about all the complaints about regulation from unelected bureaucrats? Well if we have access to the single market we have to accept their regulations whilst also giving up the say we currently have on what the regulations look like. Have we voted to get rid of those regulations? Er... we don't know, we know we've voted out of the EU, but we don't know what that will actually mean.

What about EU migrants currently here - will they stay or be forced to go? What about UK migrants over there - will they be allowed to stay or be forced to come home? We have a very large ex-pat community of retirees in Spain, much like you have in Florida. Are they all to be relocated to Swindon? We don't know and probably won't know for going on half a decade.

A massive slice of our economy is the financial services offered by London. Will that still be able to operate or will it all disappear to Frankfurt? We don't know.

What about the money we send to the EU? (Never mind the fact that we get a good deal of it back either from Thatchers rebate or on direct investment by the EU into UK projects) - will there be any left to spend if the economy tanks because we no longer get to sell to the worlds biggest market? Will we use what we no longer send to the EU on those that currently benefit from EU money or will they lose out as we spend it on HS2 or Hinkley C? We don't know and we didn't know yesterday when we went to vote.

It goes on and on and on.

We've voted out but no one _no one_ who voted knew then or now what that will actually result in.

Not even the politicians pressing for an out vote knew and there wasn't even an attempt to say "if we vote out this is the sort of deal we'll be looking to achieve".

No one was setting out a clear view for what out looked like It was all: control immigration (ps - we might not do that) take back control of the regulations (ps - we might not do that) do more trade with the rest of the world (ps - we might not do that) continue to trade with the EU (ps - we might not do that).

Brave new world, we can do it etc etc I get that and I'm sure we'll be fine in the long run. But yesterday's vote was very much a vote based on emotional concepts (and a very British desire to say 'fuck you' to the EU every now and then) rather than a choice between two clearly delineated versions of the future. Because there wasn't one.

[kallend 1,621]

ryoder

***
To top it off we now potentially have Prime Minister Boris Johnson who is the equivalent of our Trump... He has no understanding of reality but is very good at pandering to what people want to hear.

I just googled Boris, and saw a photo.
Now I understand this sign I saw earlier!

And they get their hair done at the same place.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[ryoder 1,381]

gowlerk

Quote

On the downside, the US stock market had its worst opening since 1986, and I've lost enough this morning to buy two Street Triples.Mad

There is a phrase to describe when the market plunges like that for temporary speculative and emotional reasons. It's called "a buying opportunity".

Sure, that would be a great idea...if I had a pile of cash sitting here that was not already invested.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[ryoder 1,381]

mr2mk1g

Does it mean we will no longer have access to the single market? Maybe - if we refuse to accept freedom of movement (like those who are worried about legal migration within the EU want) then we wont get access to the single market. That means trade barriers and tariffs. That's going to massively impact the economy.

I heard this mentioned on BBC last night, but what I don't understand is:
Why is the free movement of goods, linked the the free movement of people?

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.