Greece implosion

[lawrocket 3]

The day of reckoning is upon it. For the last five years it has been bailouts and fights over how to service the massive debt. Greek banks are closed. There is no more cash. And there is no telling when they will be open. Greek stocks and bonds? Not trading.

The bailouts have called for austerity and tax increases (of course, mixing the two is a recipe for disaster) but Greece put itself there. Then Greece elected Tsipras, whose campaign was that the gravy train will keep on rolling until it is dead.

Now he is calling for a referendum on a bailout package that may not even exist. Quite simply, Greece is going to vote on whether it will drop out of the Euro.

Greece is looking to secede. Greece has borrowed more than it can pay back. Greece is not going to pay it back. Tsipras was elected on his agenda of continuing socialist policies. The creditors want to get paid.

Tsipras is playing pretty much the only card he has. As much as he is accusing the European Union and its banks of blackmail he is the one doing that. He wants more money or he is going to start something that weakens the entire union outside of just the shock of the Greek default. The breakup of the EU.

If Greek can just drop out of it and the Euro then so, too, can others. Spain may find it easier to just default and leave. Germans hold on the EU and its own global power may be diminished.

This is fascinating for me to watch. And next year I'll probably have some degree of envy for Greece. They played off the cliff and can start anew with a more capitalist approach. Meanwhile the US will be like Greece in 2010. Just waiting until it gets to be too much.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[yoink 321]

lawrocket

And next year I'll probably have some degree of envy for Greece. They played off the cliff and can start anew with a more capitalist approach.

More like 5-10 years - look at Argentina in the early 2000s for an example.
If Greece does exit it's going to be rife with hyperinflation and devaluation. The next few years in Greece will be absolutely awful.


I feel sorry for the Greek people. I honestly believe that international finance is something that is so complex and has so many ramifications that it's simply not realistic to expect the layman to have enough of an understanding to be able to make an intelligent choice.

Tsipras ran on the stupidly simple 'do you want money? I'll get you money!' promise which most people with a broad understanding of finance knew was unachievable. Tsipras however, knew people. If you ask them if they'd like more money or less money, they'll always vote for the former...

His policies have put them in an irrecoverable position. In 2010 there may have been some road to remedy. Not now. Now Greece has to choose between two miserable choices.


You make the point that Greece has borrowed cash and is running out on that debt. As I understand it (and I could be wrong), from the perspective of the ECB, if Greece returns to the Drachma then that money hasn't actually gone anywhere. They could reprint the money or at least a portion of it and recover some of the debt that way.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

Quote

Tsipras ran on the stupidly simple 'do you want money? I'll get you money!' promise which most people with a broad understanding of finance knew was unachievable.

Tsipras has really only been buying time so that friends, family and powerful are able to move their Euros out of Greek banks. That way they cannot be forcibly converted to the new Drachma.

The wealth of these people will grow significantly during the hyperinflation which is sure to follow.

[Elisha 1]

Some articles for perspective:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5e38f1be-1116-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3dS3ZzMb9

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21654598-greece-and-euro-zone-are-stuck-abusive-relationship-my-big-fat-greek-divorce

(Skip to Greek deficit if you want)
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/yanis-varoufakis-a-pressing-question-for-ireland-before-monday-s-meeting-on-greece-1.2256339#.VYWkyr7gSDM.facebook

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/opinion/paul-krugman-greece-over-the-brink.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share

And on the lighter side...

http://wondermark.com/c1135/

[muff528 3]

3 years since the other thread about this.

http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=4277456;page=unread#unread

[coozer 0]

Quote

Greece is looking to secede. Greece has borrowed more than it can pay back. Greece is not going to pay it back.

Surely some of the blame can be placed on the creditors.

You do not keep giving a junkie money and expect to get it back.

The EU stands to lose a lot from this as well.

You could do what happened last time, bail the bankers out and charge the common man for it...

or you could do what Iceland did.

Iceland was in the news everyday when they were in the shit, up until they did exactly the opposite of what everyone expected them to do...

Put the bankers in jail or kick them out of the country, sack the government and start afresh.

One of the fastest growing economies in the region now. But of course we don't know about that because telling the big banks to fuck off and sacking your entire government is not really newsworthy...

Lets see how this pans out.

[lawrocket 3]

SkyDekker

Quote

Tsipras ran on the stupidly simple 'do you want money? I'll get you money!' promise which most people with a broad understanding of finance knew was unachievable.

Tsipras has really only been buying time so that friends, family and powerful are able to move their Euros out of Greek banks. That way they cannot be forcibly converted to the new Drachma.

The wealth of these people will grow significantly during the hyperinflation which is sure to follow.

Bingo. Tsipras is an example of it. How does one enrich one's friends and family by way of government? Tell everybody else you're working for them and they'll get the money.


On another point, to be sure Tsiras took control of a Sinking ship. All he did was turn off the pumps and chain up the lifeboats.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 1,623]

Don't think the US, UK and other non-Euro nations won't be affected. The big US banks are all involved, the $US and UK pound will rise (affecting trade balance), Europe will probably enter another recession and drag the rest of the world with it.

And the rich will get richer, as someone already stated.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

kallend

Don't think the US, UK and other non-Euro nations won't be affected. The big US banks are all involved, the $US and UK pound will rise (affecting trade balance), Europe will probably enter another recession and drag the rest of the world with it.

And the rich will get richer, as someone already stated.

Well, there really aren't any wealthy in Greece anymore. The only ones are going to be the ones that got the hell out of there before the government took everything.

Greece can now join Venezuela as a failed experiment. Venezuela was outright communist command economy. Greece was socialist.

Greece just ran out of other people's money. Something to think about when US debt exceeds $20 trillion by the end of the year. (that's straight up debt and doesn't include unfunded future liabilities).

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[billvon 2,396]

>Something to think about when US debt exceeds $20 trillion by the end of the year.

Yep. Keynesian economics can work - but requires that you repay the stimulus at the end of the recovery. If we had any sense we would now be cutting government spending dramatically and raising taxes dramatically to fill back in the hole we created via the economic stimulus. Then by the time the next economic crisis comes along we are in a position to try that again.

But that will never happen. Democrats will say "no cuts to little old lady's walker money until the rich get taxed more!" Republicans will just say "no new taxes!"

[kallend 1,623]

lawrocket

***

Don't think the US, UK and other non-Euro nations won't be affected. The big US banks are all involved, the $US and UK pound will rise (affecting trade balance), Europe will probably enter another recession and drag the rest of the world with it.

And the rich will get richer, as someone already stated.

Well, there really aren't any wealthy in Greece anymore. The only ones are going to be the ones that got the hell out of there before the government took everything.

.

Not quite true. I was there last year; there are plenty of very wealthy folks left in Greece. What they did is get their MONEY the hell out.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

kallend

******

Don't think the US, UK and other non-Euro nations won't be affected. The big US banks are all involved, the $US and UK pound will rise (affecting trade balance), Europe will probably enter another recession and drag the rest of the world with it.

And the rich will get richer, as someone already stated.

Well, there really aren't any wealthy in Greece anymore. The only ones are going to be the ones that got the hell out of there before the government took everything.

.

Not quite true. I was there last year; there are plenty of very wealthy folks left in Greece. What they did is get their MONEY the hell out.

Yeah.

Greece owes about $325 billion. That's the debt that was borrowed.

Greece has a population of 11 million people - a little more than LA County. Where did all that money go? Did it go to the wealthy? Did that massive amount of money just go to the rich to park it offshore?

Of course it didn't. The easiest way to destroy wealth is to spread it around. Greece created too many takers. Then they created very high taxes. And then the tax collectors became rich by taking bribes and there was massive tax cheating.

I'm sure you remember back in the day. When the Stones and Lennon and Bowie and Boland and loads of others left England and became tax exiles. Tax people enough they move awa. American businesses are doing the same thing.

The tax base and even the wealth base are being depleted.

Greece is America's future in a microcosm. But we won't do anything about it.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Amazon 7]

kallend

******

Don't think the US, UK and other non-Euro nations won't be affected. The big US banks are all involved, the $US and UK pound will rise (affecting trade balance), Europe will probably enter another recession and drag the rest of the world with it.

And the rich will get richer, as someone already stated.

Well, there really aren't any wealthy in Greece anymore. The only ones are going to be the ones that got the hell out of there before the government took everything.

.

Not quite true. I was there last year; there are plenty of very wealthy folks left in Greece. What they did is get their MONEY the hell out.

Just as have many of our Vulture Capitalists like the last GOP candidate for president.. being the patriotic American that he is

[rehmwa 2]

Iago

***Greece is America's future in a microcosm. But we won't do anything about it.

So Greece owes roughly 30k per-capita.
I believe the US is at about $39k

If Greece actually tried enforcing and collecting taxes they could probably pull through this.

If they really need money they could probably sell off some assets. I've got cash and I wouldn't mind a place on the Aegean.


So actually, the US is a little microcosm of Greece, not the other way around. Or.....The US is actually deeper in the quicksand than Greece is - but our critical mass is a lot bigger before we implode. (and as always with implosive materials of even higher critical mass)

and the comment that all is needed is to enforce and collect more taxes as a fix, or selling off critical assets to fix it.....(vs changing spending and borrowing behavior instead vs BOTH) is a telling observation

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[Amazon 7]

Iago

*********Greece is America's future in a microcosm. But we won't do anything about it.

So Greece owes roughly 30k per-capita.
I believe the US is at about $39k

If Greece actually tried enforcing and collecting taxes they could probably pull through this.

If they really need money they could probably sell off some assets. I've got cash and I wouldn't mind a place on the Aegean.


So actually, the US is a little microcosm of Greece, not the other way around. Or.....The US is actually deeper in the quicksand than Greece is - but our critical mass is a lot bigger before we implode. (and as always with implosive materials of even higher critical mass)

and the comment that all is needed is to enforce and collect more taxes as a fix, or selling off critical assets to fix it.....(vs changing spending and borrowing behavior instead vs BOTH) is a telling observation

Well, what I meant by the former was that not paying taxes was a national past-time in Greece. As part of the first bailout/reform Germany actually sent people to Greece to train and educate them on collecting taxes.

It's not unusual to sell off some assets like vacant land to spur some development and raise some capital.

Our patriotic billionaires are trying to do that here but it is not to pay off the debt... it is to take our public lands, extract every last dollar in resources they can and then leave a huge stinking toxic waste dump for we the people to clean up... IF it can even be cleaned up... just has happened over and over. The best way to accomplish this is to get the federal government to hand the lands over to the states, where it is far easier to buy the local politicians and legislatures than it is the federal ones. Then it is far cheaper to buy the rights to despoil any possible future heritage because that is just not important for any future generations... just their greedy pockets for short term profit so they have a few more billions to move offshore.

[lawrocket 3]

not quite. It's also counting Children. And seniors. People who don't have incomes to tax like that.

The National debt is quite extraordinary. We're looking at $20 trillion by the end of the year. Let's compare it to something.

Here's one. The Dow Jones. If every company on the Dow was liquidated it would net about $25 trillion. That means every company on the Dow gets sold for cash and the government tales all of it. It would pay off the debt And cover the deficit for the next couple of years. Except evrry employee of the companies would be out of work. Everything those companies did would stop. And we would be in a recession so massive that I would suspect that thousands or millions would die as electricity became unreliable, fuel became absent, banking was decimated, manufacturing pretty much halted.

Oh. And the debt would start climbing again and clear $10 trillion again within five years.

Imagine the shock of liquidating the Dow over a ten year span. It would be chaos.

These are the numbers that are out there. It's pretty damned frightening

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 1,623]

lawrocket

not quite. It's also counting Children. And seniors. People who don't have incomes to tax like that.

The National debt is quite extraordinary. We're looking at $20 trillion by the end of the year. Let's compare it to something.

Here's one. The Dow Jones. If every company on the Dow was liquidated it would net about $25 trillion. That means every company on the Dow gets sold for cash and the government tales all of it. It would pay off the debt And cover the deficit for the next couple of years. Except evrry employee of the companies would be out of work. Everything those companies did would stop. And we would be in a recession so massive that I would suspect that thousands or millions would die as electricity became unreliable, fuel became absent, banking was decimated, manufacturing pretty much halted.

Oh. And the debt would start climbing again and clear $10 trillion again within five years.

Imagine the shock of liquidating the Dow over a ten year span. It would be chaos.

These are the numbers that are out there. It's pretty damned frightening

What nonsense. In 1835 the USA was a backwater on the international stage. That was the LAST TIME the USA had no debt. The USA has been in debt continuously for 180 years yet has grown to be the most powerful and richest nation on Earth.

In that 180 years of continuous debt, when was the last time anyone was asked to pony up their share of it?

Comparing a national debt to a personal debt is totally bogus. To whom is the national debt owed? Most of it is owed to the people of the USA, not to China or Dubai.

What is important is whether or not the economy can service the debt. The US economy can. The Greek economy cannot.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 18]

lawrocket

not quite. It's also counting Children. And seniors. People who don't have incomes to tax like that.

The National debt is quite extraordinary. We're looking at $20 trillion by the end of the year. Let's compare it to something.

Here's one. The Dow Jones. If every company on the Dow was liquidated it would net about $25 trillion. That means every company on the Dow gets sold for cash and the government tales all of it. It would pay off the debt And cover the deficit for the next couple of years. Except evrry employee of the companies would be out of work. Everything those companies did would stop. And we would be in a recession so massive that I would suspect that thousands or millions would die as electricity became unreliable, fuel became absent, banking was decimated, manufacturing pretty much halted.

Oh. And the debt would start climbing again and clear $10 trillion again within five years.

Imagine the shock of liquidating the Dow over a ten year span. It would be chaos.

These are the numbers that are out there. It's pretty damned frightening

And this is where the left would take us if they could

Excuse me
they already are

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 1,623]

lawrocket

*********

Don't think the US, UK and other non-Euro nations won't be affected. The big US banks are all involved, the $US and UK pound will rise (affecting trade balance), Europe will probably enter another recession and drag the rest of the world with it.

And the rich will get richer, as someone already stated.

Well, there really aren't any wealthy in Greece anymore. The only ones are going to be the ones that got the hell out of there before the government took everything.

.

Not quite true. I was there last year; there are plenty of very wealthy folks left in Greece. What they did is get their MONEY the hell out.

Yeah.

Greece owes about $325 billion. That's the debt that was borrowed.

Greece has a population of 11 million people - a little more than LA County. Where did all that money go? Did it go to the wealthy? Did that massive amount of money just go to the rich to park it offshore?

Of course it didn't. The easiest way to destroy wealth is to spread it around. Greece created too many takers. Then they created very high taxes. And then the tax collectors became rich by taking bribes and there was massive tax cheating.



More nonsense. Wealth is destroyed by things like wars, arson, riots, earthquakes, droughts... Spreading it around doesn't destroy it any more than spreading fertilizer on my garden destroys the fertilizer or blowing CO2 into the air destroys the CO2.

Typical conservative thinking to blame the poor when the rich are the bigger takers by far. Unlike money in the investment accounts of the wealthy, money paid to the poor stays in Greece.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

I don't blame the poor. I blame the government.

But you've made a great point. Due to wealth redistribution poverty is still an issue. More people are on food stamps and Medicaid. And the middle class is shrinking.

So wealth redistribution hasn't cured poverty. Not even close. And since it hasn't worked despite trillions having been spent, why should it continue? It failed. It has failed. The system itself cannot do the intended job.

It's been like building a boat out of rice paper. It has spent fifty years falling apart and not working. The response has been to add more paper. Doesn't work. Make it bigger. Doesn't work.

The policy has been a failure. It hasn't worked. So continuing a policy that has maintained poverty is at best aloof and at worst misanthropic. Meanwhile, government policy which encourages the destruction of the middle class and tax rates that are tolerable only by the elite wealthy has led to the poor being poorer, hhe middle class being poorer, and the elite wealthy doing just fine

Interestingly, Greece had this problem, too. You were just in Greece. Did you see the homeless there? Or did you stick to the nice areas? "I didn't see any homeless there."

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 1,623]

lawrocket

Interestingly, Greece had this problem, too. You were just in Greece. Did you see the homeless there? Or did you stick to the nice areas? "I didn't see any homeless there."

I didn't say that.

You don't have to walk very far from the tourist areas to get in the poor parts of Athens or the islands.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kallend 1,623]

lawrocket

I don't blame the poor. I blame the government.

But you've made a great point. Due to wealth redistribution poverty is still an issue. More people are on food stamps and Medicaid. And the middle class is shrinking.

So wealth redistribution hasn't cured poverty. Not even close. And since it hasn't worked despite trillions having been spent, why should it continue? It failed. It has failed. The system itself cannot do the intended job.

Can't say I've heard of many children dying of starvation lately in the USA, despite the best efforts of the CEOs to export middle class and working class jobs to Asia.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Amazon 7]

rushmc

*** not quite. It's also counting Children. And seniors. People who don't have incomes to tax like that.

The National debt is quite extraordinary. We're looking at $20 trillion by the end of the year. Let's compare it to something.

Here's one. The Dow Jones. If every company on the Dow was liquidated it would net about $25 trillion. That means every company on the Dow gets sold for cash and the government tales all of it. It would pay off the debt And cover the deficit for the next couple of years. Except evrry employee of the companies would be out of work. Everything those companies did would stop. And we would be in a recession so massive that I would suspect that thousands or millions would die as electricity became unreliable, fuel became absent, banking was decimated, manufacturing pretty much halted.

Oh. And the debt would start climbing again and clear $10 trillion again within five years.

Imagine the shock of liquidating the Dow over a ten year span. It would be chaos.

These are the numbers that are out there. It's pretty damned frightening

And this is where the left would take us if they could

Excuse me
they already are

I did not realize the guy who saddled us with a couple wars and a massive tax cut to reverse the Clinton Tax rates..... was a "lefty"..... I really do wish you guys could keep from moving your goalposts.... daily.

[lawrocket 3]

kallend

***I don't blame the poor. I blame the government.

But you've made a great point. Due to wealth redistribution poverty is still an issue. More people are on food stamps and Medicaid. And the middle class is shrinking.

So wealth redistribution hasn't cured poverty. Not even close. And since it hasn't worked despite trillions having been spent, why should it continue? It failed. It has failed. The system itself cannot do the intended job.

Can't say I've heard of many children dying of starvation lately in the USA, despite the best efforts of the CEOs to export middle class and working class jobs to Asia.

True. And I don't recall children dying of starvation in the US before the Great Society. In fact, children starving in the US hasn't been a problem. Like ever. Even when the Great depression hit people a D kids weren't starving to death. Far more were adults committing suicide. Mainly because the US diet was enough that even a severe shock still left subsistence levels. Hence the government was starting to pay farmers to not grow crops back then.

But I can tell you where starvation has historically occurred. In places where wealth was wiped out. The USSR. China. Places where strong governments created famine.

So could you tell me how many kids were starving before welfare? What we see nowadays is that American children are remarkably malnourished despite calorie dense diets. Which is government policy. Families pay less for shit food than the actual cost thanks to government.

If we want to talk about a war on the poor, corn subsidies is a great one. Give the poor obesity, atherosclerosis and diabetes and do it in the name of helping them.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[lawrocket 3]

Clinton cut the capital gains tax. The one that the left hates so much.

My wife is hotter than your wife.