Another downward revision......

[Anvilbrother 0]

Thats RIGHT! They area all pieces of shit I agree! Now if I could just get you to agree we would be on the same page

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[kallend 1,623]

Anvilbrother

Thats RIGHT! They area all pieces of shit I agree! Now if I could just get you to agree we would be on the same page

Short memory you have.

THIS thread.

Direct response to YOU.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Anvilbrother 0]

I tend to not memorize things you have said, my dr said it was bad for my health

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[kallend 1,623]

Anvilbrother

I tend to not memorize things you have said, my dr said it was bad for my health

So you attribute attitudes to me despite having forgotten what they are.

Classic.

You're as bad as rushmc who repeatedly claims I've written something, but can NEVER find it when challenged.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

The Bush recession started in Dec 2007.

GOP denial coincided:

"I don't know of anyone predicting a recession." GWB, Jan 8, 2008

"We don't believe we're going to have a recession though." VP Cheney, Jan 2008

"I think the experts will tell you we're not in a recession." GWB, Feb 2008

"First of all, we're not in a recession.", GWB April 22, 2008

"A lot of our problems today, as you know, are psychological.". Sen. John McCain, April 2008

Then of course the DZ.COM righties chimed in to tell us that everything was fine.

Well, this particular part isn't very fair - the NBER identified the Dec 2007 start date well after April. And you're not in a recession until you have two consecutive quarters (which is why Q1 this year doesn't represent one) of negative growth.

It was obviously politically motivated to say things are great during an election year, but it was not lying on their part. Recessions (and recoveries) are not obvious until they're well under way.

[Anvilbrother 0]

It was a joke, not a dick don't take it so hard, Kallend.

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[Anvilbrother 0]

Quote

Thats RIGHT! They area all pieces of shit I agree! Now if I could just get you to agree we would be on the same pageWink

Short memory you have.

THIS thread.

Direct response to YOU.

And to further clarify my point I was trying to get you to agree with me that along with ALL politicians Obama is a piece of shit, which in reply you linked a post showing bad marks for OTHER presidents. This further proves my point that you can't even say one bad think about your furor even when he is making the same mistakes of past presidents which you have documented here saying they were fucking up.

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[kallend 1,623]

kelpdiver

***
The Bush recession started in Dec 2007.

GOP denial coincided:

"I don't know of anyone predicting a recession." GWB, Jan 8, 2008

"We don't believe we're going to have a recession though." VP Cheney, Jan 2008

"I think the experts will tell you we're not in a recession." GWB, Feb 2008

"First of all, we're not in a recession.", GWB April 22, 2008

"A lot of our problems today, as you know, are psychological.". Sen. John McCain, April 2008

Then of course the DZ.COM righties chimed in to tell us that everything was fine.

Well, this particular part isn't very fair - the NBER identified the Dec 2007 start date well after April. And you're not in a recession until you have two consecutive quarters (which is why Q1 this year doesn't represent one) of negative growth.



That isn't the criterion NBER uses.

Quote

It was obviously politically motivated to say things are great during an election year, but it was not lying on their part. Recessions (and recoveries) are not obvious until they're well under way.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows". It was obvious to anyone who bothered to think about it.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[StreetScooby 5]

You should see the revision they made of the contribution of health care to GDP. I saw a (internal?) chart of the estimate/actual for the last few quarters today. Not sure if it was a joke, because it was _way_ off. You can't believe any of the numbers coming out of our federal government these days.

We are all engines of karma

[StreetScooby 5]

Quote

sigh...another person who thinks the DOW is still relevant.

+1

We are all engines of karma

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

That isn't the criterion NBER uses.

Yes, they have a convoluted process that takes even longer to detect the hurricane that went buy. But fine...show me where they announced the recession prior to April if you can.

Quote

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows". It was obvious to anyone who bothered to think about it.

Which sounds just as politically motivated as the statements you quoted from the GOP. Or the ones in this thread. We got a bunch of weatherman here who believe it's happening, and have for quite some time. OTOH, 2008 was outstanding for me into late Fall, and I worked at the biggest money manager on the planet.

You're combining faith arguments with monday morning quarterbacking.

[kallend 1,623]

kelpdiver

***
That isn't the criterion NBER uses.

Yes, they have a convoluted process that takes even longer to detect the hurricane that went buy. But fine...show me where they announced the recession prior to April if you can.



Indeed, I was correct and you weren't.

Quote

***
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows". It was obvious to anyone who bothered to think about it.

Which sounds just as politically motivated as the statements you quoted from the GOP. Or the ones in this thread. We got a bunch of weatherman here who believe it's happening, and have for quite some time. OTOH, 2008 was outstanding for me into late Fall, and I worked at the biggest money manager on the planet.

You're combining faith arguments with monday morning quarterbacking.

Just because NBER hadn't announced it didn't mean we weren't IN the Bush recession.

And as my posts that Marc linked from 2008 show, I wasn't Monday morning quarterbacking. It WAS obvious to anyone who thought about it.

Maybe you just weren't thinking enough.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[grimmie 173]

http://www.thestate.com/2014/06/24/3528121/why-a-grim-us-economic-picture.html

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

Just because NBER hadn't announced it didn't mean we weren't IN the Bush recession.

And as my posts that Marc linked from 2008 show, I wasn't Monday morning quarterbacking. It WAS obvious to anyone who thought about it.

Maybe you just weren't thinking enough.

Better than not thinking at all.

Again, what is the difference between you then, and the person who started this thread? It is obvious to him. And there is a 2.9% quarterly drop, which is a pretty substantial one.

Being right without confirmation is hardly different from guessing. If you cry wolf long enough, eventually you get to be right.

[kallend 1,623]

kelpdiver

***
Just because NBER hadn't announced it didn't mean we weren't IN the Bush recession.

And as my posts that Marc linked from 2008 show, I wasn't Monday morning quarterbacking. It WAS obvious to anyone who thought about it.

Maybe you just weren't thinking enough.

Better than not thinking at all.

Again, what is the difference between you then, and the person who started this thread? It is obvious to him. And there is a 2.9% quarterly drop, which is a pretty substantial one.

Being right without confirmation is hardly different from guessing. If you cry wolf long enough, eventually you get to be right.

Wow, it really upsets you that I was right all along. Get over it.
As for crying wolf, tell us how many times I've claimed "Recession" over the past 12 years other than when I was right.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[jclalor 12]

rushmc

***>How many 9/11's has obama gone through?

Zero. He killed Bin Laden, which would tend to reduce the number of 9/11's the guy could pull off.

Ya
Well 5 of his brothers just got set free


As bill Maher put it "we couldn't kill them with Predators at Guantanamo, so instead, we just gave them a running start."

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

And as my posts that Marc linked from 2008 show, I wasn't Monday morning quarterbacking. It WAS obvious to anyone who thought about it.

So quite the contrary.

http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html

two key paragraphs of interest:
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

and

Other series considered by the committee-including real personal income less transfer payments, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and employment estimates based on the household survey-all reached peaks between November 2007 and June 2008.

So you claim it was obvious, yet they took 11 more months, and noted that different metrics peaked as late as 5 months later. Since you have consistently held them to be the only standard that matters, it's clear you're full of it, here. No one could make a determination in January that wasn't motivated by politics rather than facts.

[kallend 1,623]

kelpdiver

***
And as my posts that Marc linked from 2008 show, I wasn't Monday morning quarterbacking. It WAS obvious to anyone who thought about it.

So quite the contrary.

http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html

two key paragraphs of interest:
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

and

Other series considered by the committee-including real personal income less transfer payments, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and employment estimates based on the household survey-all reached peaks between November 2007 and June 2008.

So you claim it was obvious, yet they took 11 more months, and noted that different metrics peaked as late as 5 months later. Since you have consistently held them to be the only standard that matters, it's clear you're full of it, here. No one could make a determination in January that wasn't motivated by politics rather than facts.

Stop wriggling. The recession started December 2007, and I correctly called it. You didn't.

money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/

As for your "crying wolf" comment, have you found the posts where I claimed a recession that didn't happen? Thought not.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

Stop wriggling. The recession started December 2007, and I correctly called it. You didn't.

Called it based on what?

Meredith Whitney got a lot of credibility for calling it early too, but then she shot that credibility to shit the last couple years predicting a collapse in the muni bond market. It's clear that her 'brilliance' was mere luck, just as it has been every time with so called market timers. We already knew that your grasp of politics and economics is more of the fist shaking grandpa variety. Right now you're claiming to be smarter than the NBER, even though you insist no one else could possibly be better at this determination then they are.

[kallend 1,623]

kelpdiver

***
Stop wriggling. The recession started December 2007, and I correctly called it. You didn't.

Called it based on what?

Meredith Whitney got a lot of credibility for calling it early too, but then she shot that credibility to shit the last couple years predicting a collapse in the muni bond market. It's clear that her 'brilliance' was mere luck, just as it has been every time with so called market timers. We already knew that your grasp of politics and economics is more of the fist shaking grandpa variety. Right now you're claiming to be smarter than the NBER, even though you insist no one else could possibly be better at this determination then they are.

It really frosts you that I was right all along, and you weren't.

Now, about that frequent "crying wolf" claim of yours. Please cite the posts in which I incorrectly claimed a recession (3rd time of asking, why do you avoid this easy question?)

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

It really frosts you that I was right all along, and you weren't.

Now, about that frequent "crying wolf" claim of yours. Please cite the posts in which I incorrectly claimed a recession (3rd time of asking, why do you avoid this easy question?)

Because it's not a question that matters, Meredith. We have people in this very thread saying we're in a recession as we speak, no different than what you did. But you claim that they're wrong, even though they use the same convictions you did in 2008.

I know it really frosts you that you got trapped by your own words. No one counts but the NBER, yet you claim to be smarter than them on the subject. I asked you several times to explain that. It's an easy question, but one for which you have no answer.

[kallend 1,623]

kelpdiver

***
It really frosts you that I was right all along, and you weren't.

Now, about that frequent "crying wolf" claim of yours. Please cite the posts in which I incorrectly claimed a recession (3rd time of asking, why do you avoid this easy question?)

Because it's not a question that matters, Meredith. We have people in this very thread saying we're in a recession as we speak, no different than what you did. But you claim that they're wrong, even though they use the same convictions you did in 2008.

I know it really frosts you that you got trapped by your own words. No one counts but the NBER, yet you claim to be smarter than them on the subject. I asked you several times to explain that. It's an easy question, but one for which you have no answer.

Nope - I didn't claim to be smarter. I just came to the same conclusion by looking at the same information. We'll see in due time if the OP's claim of a recession turns out to be correct. BTW I noticed that all the indices are UP today, hardly an indicator of a recession.

Now, why are you dodging providing examples of your "crying wolf" claim? (Maybe because you know there aren't any and you just made it up.)

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kelpdiver 2]

kallend

Nope - I didn't claim to be smarter. I just came to the same conclusion by looking at the same information.

said information did not exist yet. Stop bullshitting us. The NBER itself notes that quite a few of their criteria continued to rise till as late as 5 months after your proclamation. It's impossible to know the peak was reached within one data point - how do you know it's not just a lateral move before it continues to push upward? You cannot.

A wise scientist doesn't ignore contradictory data and make a conclusion before it's resolved. So what are you?

Quote

Now, why are you dodging providing examples of your "crying wolf" claim? (Maybe because you know there aren't any and you just made it up.)

It's your straw man, not mine. But if that's the only way for you to save face, keep beating it.

[kallend 1,623]

kelpdiver

***
Nope - I didn't claim to be smarter. I just came to the same conclusion by looking at the same information.

said information did not exist yet.
blah blah blah



Apparently you DO need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

I was right, you weren't, get over it.

Quote

***
Now, why are you dodging providing examples of your "crying wolf" claim? (Maybe because you know there aren't any and you just made it up.)

It's your straw man, not mine. But if that's the only way for you to save face, keep beating it.

Ummmm NO. It was YOUR statement. In this thread. There for all to see.

Post #39 you wrote:

Quote

If you cry wolf long enough, eventually you get to be right.

Now back it up or shut up.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.