7.5% unemployment is the new normal?

[airdvr 197]

Obama: 'America back' after recession, but wage inequality 'morally wrong'

Obama called for Washington to focus on "rebuilding our manufacturing base, educating our workforce, upgrading our transportation systems, upgrading our information networks" instead of what he labeled "an endless parade of distractions, political posturing and phony scandals."

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/24/politics/obama-economy/index.html?hpt=po_c1

Way to aim for average.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[Darius11 12]

Quote

Obama: 'America back' after recession, but wage inequality 'morally wrong'

Obama called for Washington to focus on "rebuilding our manufacturing base, educating our workforce, upgrading our transportation systems, upgrading our information networks" instead of what he labeled "an endless parade of distractions, political posturing and phony scandals."

Better is better

I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

[rushmc 18]

airdvr

Obama: 'America back' after recession, but wage inequality 'morally wrong'

Obama called for Washington to focus on "rebuilding our manufacturing base, educating our workforce, upgrading our transportation systems, upgrading our information networks" instead of what he labeled "an endless parade of distractions, political posturing and phony scandals."

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/24/politics/obama-economy/index.html?hpt=po_c1

Way to aim for average.

I find it funny that during the Bush terms 4.2% GDP and under 5% unemployment was a recession

Now during the Obama term we have over 7% unemployment and a GDP just over 1% and we are in a recovery

I guess there are all kinds of new normals

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[airdvr 197]

Darius11

Quote

Obama: 'America back' after recession, but wage inequality 'morally wrong'

Obama called for Washington to focus on "rebuilding our manufacturing base, educating our workforce, upgrading our transportation systems, upgrading our information networks" instead of what he labeled "an endless parade of distractions, political posturing and phony scandals."

Better is better

Does the sand you've got your head buried in hurt your eyes? Last I checked;

rebuilding our manufacturing base - 2008 promise
educating our workforce - 2008 promise
upgrading our transportation systems - porkulus promise

As in his run for re-election he keeps peddling the same crap and you guys keep trying to pick it up from the clean end.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[devildog 0]

Change we can believe in

You stop breathing for a few minutes and everyone jumps to conclusions.

[kelpdiver 2]

rushmc

I find it funny that during the Bush terms 4.2% GDP and under 5% unemployment was a recession

Now during the Obama term we have over 7% unemployment and a GDP just over 1% and we are in a recovery

I guess there are all kinds of new normals

And all kinds of math, too.

Dec 31, 2008 12.88 trillion
Dec 31, 2007 13.33 trillion
This looks like NEGATIVE 3.4% to me and my calculator. (feel free to supply other numbers for these dates - these purport to be based on 2005 dollars)

and here is the unemployment rate by month in 2008:
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
it peaked in Oct 2009 at 10.0%.

[ShcShc11 0]

When a country on zero-bound economy wrongly goes on unnecessary austerity measures then of course this would negatively affect employment.

Remember a 2.5 trillion $ gap was made in 2007 housing bubble and this gap was never fully recovered because people wrongly assumed that austerity was the "responsible" thing to do.

What would be responsible is to look back at some of the economic courses of action we took and ask ourselves: "Was austerity the right action?" And by now, most economists would say no (e.g: Nial Ferguson, Reinhart, Roghoff, IMF to name a few...).


Cheers! :)

[winsor 185]

ShcShc11

When a country on zero-bound economy wrongly goes on unnecessary austerity measures then of course this would negatively affect employment.

Remember a 2.5 trillion $ gap was made in 2007 housing bubble and this gap was never fully recovered because people wrongly assumed that austerity was the "responsible" thing to do.

What would be responsible is to look back at some of the economic courses of action we took and ask ourselves: "Was austerity the right action?" And by now, most economists would say no (e.g: Nial Ferguson, Reinhart, Roghoff, IMF to name a few...).


Cheers! :)

Please promise to enroll in Arithmetic 101.

[JerryBaumchen 1,046]

Hi rush,

Quote

I guess there are all kinds of new normals

Yup. I remember when Nixon froze wages in '71 ( and all promotions for federal employees sadly effecting yours truly ) because, 'We cannot live with 3% unemployment.'



JerryBaumchen

[ShcShc11 0]

winsor

***When a country on zero-bound economy wrongly goes on unnecessary austerity measures then of course this would negatively affect employment.

Remember a 2.5 trillion $ gap was made in 2007 housing bubble and this gap was never fully recovered because people wrongly assumed that austerity was the "responsible" thing to do.

What would be responsible is to look back at some of the economic courses of action we took and ask ourselves: "Was austerity the right action?" And by now, most economists would say no (e.g: Nial Ferguson, Reinhart, Roghoff, IMF to name a few...).


Cheers! :)

Please promise to enroll in Arithmetic 101.

lol you can be so naive sometimes

Cheers! :)

[lawrocket 3]

ShcShc11

When a country on zero-bound economy wrongly goes on unnecessary austerity measures then of course this would negatively affect employment.

Remember a 2.5 trillion $ gap was made in 2007 housing bubble and this gap was never fully recovered because people wrongly assumed that austerity was the "responsible" thing to do.

What would be responsible is to look back at some of the economic courses of action we took and ask ourselves: "Was austerity the right action?" And by now, most economists would say no (e.g: Nial Ferguson, Reinhart, Roghoff, IMF to name a few...).


Cheers! :)

Hmmm. Seems a bit short sighted in hindsight. See attachment showing projections of whether something was done versus whether nothing was done. Turns out that what happened in doing something was worse that what was said would happen had nothing been done.

Also notable is that regardless of whether anything was done or not, by now the unemployment would have been pretty much the same (only doing nothing would have meant a few trillion in debt that was saved). So right now we're worse off than the projections for having done nothing and we have a few trillion in added debt (which also isn't good).

Hence we have this "recovery" that some are taking credit for because they made it far worse. Because there isn't any single person with the answers. Just think of how it could have been had the government not done a damned thing. Well, the government already predicted how it would have been.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kelpdiver 2]

uh, their projections chart used to promote the plan are not actually evidence to support the arguments you present. Only evidence that their forecasting was poor.

They can (and certainly would) still argue that the actual results would have been worse with the austerity approach. Many nations went that route and they're still suffering more.

[ShcShc11 0]

Your chart actually backs what I've been saying for a pretty long time (since 2009 in fact).

People greatly underestimated the housing/bank crisis in the post-Lehman Brother collapse in that we needed to do much more in order to recover from the 2.5 trillion $ gap created during the Great Recession.

Again, we took the course of austerity and because we took this bad economic choice, we are facing an unusually higher unemployment rate.

Why? Because we didn't put sufficient effort in covering the 2.5 trillion $ gap. We asked for austerity, Obama went for austerity policies and now we are complaining about the policies which we asked for. Now we see studies after studies (e.g: see IMF) that the multiplier effect was bigger than previously thought and austerity measures hurt employment rate (big surprise?).

Personally, I think we should just man up about it and take responsibility that this is the austerity we have been asked and it had negative consequences on our employment rate.


Compare Abenomics vs Austerity measures undertaken by US vs Greater Austerity measures taken by the EU. Are you really telling me the EU is doing better since they took the austerity path?

Quote

Just think of how it could have been had the government not done a damned thing.

Uh the major banks would have collapsed in the U.S which would have triggered more bank bankruptcies in EU and Canada etc... etc...

I remember when Citigroup went from 50$/share to 1$/share... Good times.

Cheers!

[lawrocket 3]

Quote

People greatly underestimated the housing/bank crisis in the post-Lehman Brother collapse in that we needed to do much more in order to recover from the 2.5 trillion $ gap created during the Great Recession.

That's the thing, isn't it? Either overestimate or underestimate. But projections are just projections with an unknown margin of error.

It's also the problems with planned economies. Economic planning is rarely more than a scientific wild-assed guess. And when it doesn't work it's either because you did too much or didn't do enough. It's speculative.

And kelpdiver - yes. I understand your point completely...

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[airdvr 197]

What part of porkulus can be described as austerity?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[rehmwa 2]

airdvr

What part of porkulus can be described as austerity?

Try this to get some perspective:

first, operate under the theory that spending on anything and everything (no matter how random) like drunken sailors is responsible government domination

add in a policy to tax 100% of any savings or earnings from the rich (anyone that makes more than $20K per year) for 'fairness'

add in printing money like an out of control post war 3rd world country and then he really gets happy

and add in the perception that a very slight reduction in a massive increase is considered "austerity"

and then you can close on this unique brand of economic theory



I hope this tutorial helps

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[airdvr 197]

rehmwa

***What part of porkulus can be described as austerity?

Try this to get some perspective:

first, operate under the theory that spending on anything and everything (no matter how random) like drunken sailors is responsible government domination

add in a policy to tax 100% of any savings or earnings from the rich (anyone that makes more than $20K per year) for 'fairness'

add in printing money like an out of control post war 3rd world country and then he really gets happy

and add in the perception that a very slight reduction in a massive increase is considered "austerity"

and then you can close on this unique brand of economic theory



I hope this tutorial helps

That certainly clears things up.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[ShcShc11 0]

rehmwa

***What part of porkulus can be described as austerity?

Try this to get some perspective:

first, operate under the theory that spending on anything and everything (no matter how random) like drunken sailors is responsible government domination

add in a policy to tax 100% of any savings or earnings from the rich (anyone that makes more than $20K per year) for 'fairness'

add in printing money like an out of control post war 3rd world country and then he really gets happy

and add in the perception that a very slight reduction in a massive increase is considered "austerity"

and then you can close on this unique brand of economic theory




Haha. I understand everything I say sounds counter-intuitive and henceforth slightly difficult to understand (because we are so hardwired to think that an economy is like our personal finance).

However, remember that zero-bound economy is different.

If you want to learn more about the economy, I advise you to see the 10 years U.S bond and understand why the % is low (and has been so low) for so long. This will help understand why what I am saying isin't an opinion, but what is happened/has happened to the economy since 2007.

Cheers! :)
Happy weekends all! :)

[winsor 185]

ShcShc11

******What part of porkulus can be described as austerity?

Try this to get some perspective:

first, operate under the theory that spending on anything and everything (no matter how random) like drunken sailors is responsible government domination

add in a policy to tax 100% of any savings or earnings from the rich (anyone that makes more than $20K per year) for 'fairness'

add in printing money like an out of control post war 3rd world country and then he really gets happy

and add in the perception that a very slight reduction in a massive increase is considered "austerity"

and then you can close on this unique brand of economic theory




Haha. I understand everything I say sounds counter-intuitive and henceforth slightly difficult to understand (because we are so hardwired to think that an economy is like our personal finance).

However, remember that zero-bound economy is different.

If you want to learn more about the economy, I advise you to see the 10 years U.S bond and understand why the % is low (and has been so low) for so long. This will help understand why what I am saying isin't an opinion, but what is happened/has happened to the economy since 2007.

Cheers! :)
Happy weekends all! :)

In addition to Arithmetic 101, may I suggest History 101?

[ShcShc11 0]

Quote

In addition to Arithmetic 101, may I suggest History 101?

What year would you like to start with?
We can talk about about 1929 and its impact on the U.S and/or Europe (including National Socialist economy).

But anyway, if we want to go back to basics.
Let's remember the difference between a forecast and a projection.
A forecast is a future-oriented financial information prepared using assumptions that are the most probable set of economic conditions while a projection is based on one (sometimes more) hypotheses.

I am directly pointing out WHICH hypotheses were wrong and why (namely the fact that it relied too much on austerity).

And this is something that can be clearly seen in the 10 years bond.


Cheers! Shc

[winsor 185]

ShcShc11

Quote

In addition to Arithmetic 101, may I suggest History 101?

What year would you like to start with?
We can talk about about 1929 and its impact on the U.S and/or Europe (including National Socialist economy).

But anyway, if we want to go back to basics.
Let's remember the difference between a forecast and a projection.
A forecast is a future-oriented financial information prepared using assumptions that are the most probable set of economic conditions while a projection is based on one (sometimes more) hypotheses.

I am directly pointing out WHICH hypotheses were wrong and why (namely the fact that it relied too much on austerity).

And this is something that can be clearly seen in the 10 years bond.


Cheers! Shc

Try 431 BCE.

It is amusing to be lectured by someone with so limited a perspective.

[airdvr 197]

It's your contention that the 700+ billion dollars that porkulus pumped into the economy wasn't enough?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[funjumper101 15]

airdvr

***

Quote

Obama: 'America back' after recession, but wage inequality 'morally wrong'

Obama called for Washington to focus on "rebuilding our manufacturing base, educating our workforce, upgrading our transportation systems, upgrading our information networks" instead of what he labeled "an endless parade of distractions, political posturing and phony scandals."

Better is better

Does the sand you've got your head buried in hurt your eyes? Last I checked;

rebuilding our manufacturing base - 2008 promise
educating our workforce - 2008 promise
upgrading our transportation systems - porkulus promise

As in his run for re-election he keeps peddling the same crap and you guys keep trying to pick it up from the clean end.

It seems to me that the conservatards have fallen into the trap of stupid that was laid for them by their leaders.

The rescumlicans have done everything possible, including gross abuse of the filibuster rules of the Senate, to block or severely degrade everything that Obama has tried to do.

The next thing that happens is the 'tards bitch about how little has actually been accomplished by Obama as far as fixing the problems. Talk about dumb as a box of rocks. It is quite impressive just how easily led into stupid the 'tards are.

Get a clue, 'tards!!!

You can't have the rescums blocking anything and everything, then bitch about how nothing gets done, and blame Obama.

Here is todays civics lesson for the 'tards. A bill in the US Senate is supposed to pass if there are 51 votes Yes. The Constitution specifies that in case of a tie, the VP votes. Nowhere in the Constitution is there anything about requiring 60 votes to pass a bill.

It is astonishing to the well informed people that the 'tards, who profess to love and believe in the Constitution, actually shit upon the Constitution all the time. They are REALLY proud of their feces.

[airdvr 197]

If you haven't noticed already the word retard has been replaced by developmentally disabled. Use of the word retard has been deemed inappropriate and offensive. Kinda like using the N word.

Now that we have established that you are hopelessly out of touch with reality answer me this; if you only need 51 votes why can't the democrats get anything passed? How can the republicans be blocking? Why couldn't BHO get anything done when he had control of both houses?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[kelpdiver 2]

airdvr

Now that we have established that you are hopelessly out of touch with reality answer me this; if you only need 51 votes why can't the democrats get anything passed? How can the republicans be blocking?

talk about hopelessly out of touch! You need more than 51 votes, considerably more. This situation has been in play for at least 2 decades now. Where the fuck have you been?