The devastating bit coin bubble

[cryptocoin 0]

The difference being that EVERYONE that has held bitcoin for the past year has increased their investment by a 1000%.

Yes some people have lost money, but that is because they were latecomers and jumped on the bandwagon during the peak. This happens in every market.

It fluctuates because it is new and the distribution is low compared to those that are interested in it.

Each time a drop, a peak and a correction happens... the price seems to go up and they become more distributed.

It will take a couple of years but eventually these fluctuations will mellow out and then it can be used as a currency in a broader fashion.

[kelpdiver 2]

hilarious.

we're talking about a zero sum game. For every winner, there is a loser. Like I said, I'd be interested to hear the ratio of the two sides. Are a few hustlers like you taking all the money from a bunch of morons, the same ones that bought into gold at 1690? The trading volume is too high now for everyone to be a holding winner.

Be interesting to see if the IRS tries to make an example out of some of those long term holders. The people who got in the news for buying a house or a Tesla...they better be reporting those capital gains. I suspect the IRS would consider bitcoins as a collectable (like gold), which unfortunately does not qualify for the lower long term holding rates.

[cryptocoin 0]

Lol.

If the IRS want in on the action. Then that legitimises the whole thing even further pushing prices through the roof. I am exempt from tax in my location so I could care less.

Remember this is just as much of an innovation (such as email an cell phones were) as it is a currency or commodity.

Look at the growth curve of the auto-mobile, television, personal computer, cell phone or email and consider how growth could go.

[weekender 0]

cryptocoin

The difference being that EVERYONE that has held bitcoin for the past year has increased their investment by a 1000%.

Yes some people have lost money, but that is because they were latecomers and jumped on the bandwagon during the peak. This happens in every market.

It fluctuates because it is new and the distribution is low compared to those that are interested in it.

Each time a drop, a peak and a correction happens... the price seems to go up and they become more distributed.

It will take a couple of years but eventually these fluctuations will mellow out and then it can be used as a currency in a broader fashion.

I'm very impressed with your confidence.

you sound very much like a lot people i knew right up to 2008 with real estate. and in the 90's, firefighters and bartenders who were involved in tech stocks. as i entered the business it was bio tech. going way back to the 20's it was radio. (take some time and read about radio, specifically RCA, real interesting stuff and much similiar to tech today than most realize.) and of course, this post would not be complete without mentioning tulip bulbs in the olden days.

my point is this is new. its had major moves and a lot of people with zero to little financial experience or knowledge are telling me EVERYONE is making money. that is a huge red flag. making no predictions, i can tell you might be a little over confident in their success. do you really think you suddenly became a financial genius and found the one new security that you cannot lose money on? are you really that confident?

for the record. i have nothing to lose if Bitcoins succeed. the exact opposite. its one more thing my bank can make money on. if anything, im rooting for them. just more realistically.

"The point is, I'm weird, but I never felt weird."
John Frusciante

[cryptocoin 0]

HI,

LOL, no everyone is not making money. Some people are losing for sure but more are winning than losing.

There are definitely people that are not making anything and those are the ones that have not invested anything.

The finance guys have been laughing at bitcoin since it started... Not any more.

This is not like normal finance, no central bank issuing money or company board making decisions for your investment.

It is pure free-market, something the people in finance have not been used to... for a long time.

[weekender 0]

cryptocoin

HI,

LOL, no everyone is not making money. Some people are losing for sure but more are winning than losing.

There are definitely people that are not making anything and those are the ones that have not invested anything.

The finance guys have been laughing at bitcoin since it started... Not any more.

This is not like normal finance, no central bank issuing money or company board making decisions for your investment.

It is pure free-market, something the people in finance have not been used to... for a long time.

you speak in such absolutes, its funny. "the finance guys"? i dont even know what the means. ive worked for an investment bank in NYC for 20 years. i know no "finance guys" laughing for the reasons you state. i am laughing at you a bit but its not because i fear anything. its because you seem to be so sure of yourself and the demise of the USD and finance as we know it. its silly and deserving of a chuckle. so is your comment that we dont have free markets. that makes no sense to me and i doubt anyone but you understands that statement. i truly wish i had a smart as response but its nonsensical and im at a loss for words. last time i checked i had no problem transacting any security i wanted in the US. oh, and using USD's to do it.

you have some cannabis inspired dream that bankers fear your new world order Bitcoin. its a tiny phenomenon that has no impact other than in blogs and conversations on forums like this. right now its trading volumes are insignificant, as ive explained in earlier posts.

ill repeat this in case you missed it. its not a threat to us in anyway. its just one more thing we can make money on. our job is to make money on financial instruments. introduce one more instrument and we will make money on one more instrument.

sorry to harsh your mellow, bra.

"The point is, I'm weird, but I never felt weird."
John Frusciante

[kelpdiver 2]

cryptocoin

LOL, no everyone is not making money. Some people are losing for sure but more are winning than losing.

How can you declare this? I see a wildly up and down gyration this year, and increasing volumes, so the number of long term holders from 2009 who cashed out are a minority. With the number of bitcoins nearly fixed, it's a zero sum game. I suspect a relatively few are making 80-90% of the gains.

[cryptocoin 0]

it seems you are a finance guy...

prices are manipulated all over the place, corruption is rife.

for example;

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/wall-street-culture-corruption-forex-markets-manipulated-too-175027801.html

then you have companies lying about their profit to make their shares more attractive.

Bitcoin is different to what you are used to. I do not pretend to know finance but what I do know is that it is corrupt.

'The finance guys' that I speak of are the merryl lynch mob that screwed over the irish economy selling them sub prime mortgages etc... the Bank executives that used the bailout money to give themselves large bonuses, instead of liquidating the bad debt...

Instead the mess is swept under the carpet and the result is going to be an even bigger crash then what was seen late last decade.

You cannot pick up a newspaper without bitcoin being mentioned now. It is only 4 years old. It is not going to be next week that it will go mainstream but over the coming years it will.

I never said it was a threat to wall st... I said wall st is about to jump on board, and in a big way.

You can laugh all you want, but when that bandwagon starts, you just might look back and go. I should have done this much earlier.

You might want to see BTC hit $1500 first even $10k... will that be too late? who knows even $100k?

Some are forecasting that and even more...
it I not a threat to wall st. it is an opportunity.

When cyprus banks started pinching money from peoples bank accounts... guess what happened to bitcoin prices.

Did gold go up? no, I bought gold at this time as in such times it is usually a good investment... not that time.

Bitcoin is looking more and more attractive everyday.

If you are a 'finance guy' lol, then playing with the crypto markets should be like a pro poker player on the cash tables on a Friday night.

Don't miss out.

[weekender 0]

kelpdiver

***
LOL, no everyone is not making money. Some people are losing for sure but more are winning than losing.

How can you declare this? I see a wildly up and down gyration this year, and increasing volumes, so the number of long term holders from 2009 who cashed out are a minority. With the number of bitcoins nearly fixed, it's a zero sum game. I suspect a relatively few are making 80-90% of the gains.

outstanding float, zero sum game, realized p&l, beta coefficient. who can be bothered with any of that when EVERYONE who holds it makes money?

you are obviously one of the jealous "finance guys". Yea, who's laughing now? its a new world order. you and your worthless USD's and non free markets cannot grasp the wisdom of the cryptocoin axe.

(axe is "finance guy" speak for the person who controls a security at a given time. ie "dude dont short bitcoins, you will get caught in a mad squeeze by cyptocoin. he is the AXE in the name.")

"The point is, I'm weird, but I never felt weird."
John Frusciante

[cryptocoin 0]

Quote

How can you declare this? I see a wildly up and down gyration this year, and increasing volumes, so the number of long term holders from 2009 who cashed out are a minority. With the number of bitcoins nearly fixed, it's a zero sum game. I suspect a relatively few are making 80-90% of the gains.

wildly up and down... from $60 > $120 > $260 > $130 > $260 > $500 > $800 > $1200 > $700...

That is this year.

look at this chart...

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

Click the 1d button to change the candles to one day terms and see that only those that have bough in this last month have risked losing anything at this stage...

I have bought in the last month and still made profit. Heck I bought 2 btc at almost $1100 and traded it in cryptsy for a bunch of different shitcoins and turned that 2btc into 4 btc...

the corrections have only happened because of Bad News... china freaking out on it... etc.

corrections are quite normal everyone keep saying bitcoin crashed today. I don't know how many times I have heard that but each time it continues to grow.

If growth from $109 in October to $700 at Christmas is bad then blow me down... I am an idiot.

[weekender 0]

cryptocoin

it seems you are a finance guy...

prices are manipulated all over the place, corruption is rife.

for example;

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/wall-street-culture-corruption-forex-markets-manipulated-too-175027801.html

then you have companies lying about their profit to make their shares more attractive.

Bitcoin is different to what you are used to. I do not pretend to know finance but what I do know is that it is corrupt.

'The finance guys' that I speak of are the merryl lynch mob that screwed over the irish economy selling them sub prime mortgages etc... the Bank executives that used the bailout money to give themselves large bonuses, instead of liquidating the bad debt...

Instead the mess is swept under the carpet and the result is going to be an even bigger crash then what was seen late last decade.

You cannot pick up a newspaper without bitcoin being mentioned now. It is only 4 years old. It is not going to be next week that it will go mainstream but over the coming years it will.

I never said it was a threat to wall st... I said wall st is about to jump on board, and in a big way.

You can laugh all you want, but when that bandwagon starts, you just might look back and go. I should have done this much earlier.

You might want to see BTC hit $1500 first even $10k... will that be too late? who knows even $100k?

Some are forecasting that and even more...
it I not a threat to wall st. it is an opportunity.

When cyprus banks started pinching money from peoples bank accounts... guess what happened to bitcoin prices.

Did gold go up? no, I bought gold at this time as in such times it is usually a good investment... not that time.

Bitcoin is looking more and more attractive everyday.

If you are a 'finance guy' lol, then playing with the crypto markets should be like a pro poker player on the cash tables on a Friday night.

Don't miss out.

i agree with none of your financial opinions, with the one exception being there is money to be made in Bitcoins. i cannot deny that, its basic math. there is money to be made in a lot of things that are to risky for my taste. the rest of your post is just silly to me and evidence to your lack of financial knowledge or experience.

all mockery aside and in all seriousness. i would suggest, before getting too involved in unregulated illiquid instruments like Bitcoin. that you find some humility. ive meet billionaire hedge fund managers with less confidence than you. in my experience, this could end bad. bubbles burst and there is a reason why the "finance guys" are still watching this one.

"The point is, I'm weird, but I never felt weird."
John Frusciante

[cryptocoin 0]

LOL you will see.

lets come back ina few months time.

lets put a hypothetical $5000 on BTC, and a further $5000 on MEC (my favourite).

You pick $10k in the next 24hours on something you will trade in on a daily basis and see what that $2k is worth.

just for shits and giggles...

We put a date like March 15th ( I expect a large correction/opportunity at Chinese new year so lets avoid the end of January) to see who's hypothetical investment has grown the most in that time.

you in?

[cryptocoin 0]

Quote

all mockery aside and in all seriousness. i would suggest, before getting too involved in unregulated illiquid instruments like Bitcoin. that you find some humility. ive meet billionaire hedge fund managers with less confidence than you. in my experience, this could end bad. bubbles burst and there is a reason why the "finance guys" are still watching this one.

So if I put $4k into it 2 months ago and took $4k out 2 weeks ago and still have like $20k in it to trade with...

is that bad?

I don't really understand this stuff so well...

Megacoin was like $0.015 when I got like $200 worth and now it is only $0.58 after correcting from $2.80 a couple of weeks or so ago...

I am buying it today for over $0.50 at bargain prices.

Look at the graphs. I chose a great time to get in. I thought I missed the boat. I guess not.

[Bertt 0]

"cryptocoin" illustrates the main problem with bitcoin. It was developed by someone who, like cryptocoin, has an online identity but is otherwise anonymous. If that's your idea of a wise investment, good luck. I'll stick to doing business with people who have faces.

You don't have to outrun the bear.

[weekender 0]

cryptocoin

LOL you will see.

lets come back ina few months time.

lets put a hypothetical $5000 on BTC, and a further $5000 on MEC (my favourite).

You pick $10k in the next 24hours on something you will trade in on a daily basis and see what that $2k is worth.

just for shits and giggles...

We put a date like March 15th ( I expect a large correction/opportunity at Chinese new year so lets avoid the end of January) to see who's hypothetical investment has grown the most in that time.

you in?

i dont gamble and will pass on your bet. a challenge that makes no sense since i never denied bitcoins profitability.

please read my posts. you are completely missing the point. i have never denied you cannot make money. i am criticizing your arrogance and broad macro comments.

"The point is, I'm weird, but I never felt weird."
John Frusciante

[kelpdiver 2]

cryptocoin

You cannot pick up a newspaper without bitcoin being mentioned now.

Did anyone else find this line rather amusing?

I think Clinton was still President the last time I picked up a newspaper.

[cryptocoin 0]

Quote

i am criticizing your arrogance and broad macro comments.

Please explain, I am simply suggesting that bitcoin is a good investment if you watch the markets.

That finance markets are inherently corrupt and that the us financial system is on the verge of collapse.

I would like you to explain yourself. broad comments about me with no real explanation are simply ad hominem.

If you are so educated on the financial system and my comments are so 'humorous' then please educate us.

I would like to believe that the future if the USD is sound... I cannot because printing billions and billions and billions of dollars can only cause inflation... If you hide that inflation then that can only cause a crash.

Bitcoin is not subject to such inflation. It does have it's own concerns but hyper inflation is not one of them.

You mentioned earlier that you refute that fact that the USD is backed by debt... I would have thought you would understand that. You understand how USD are issued right, of course you do.

So explain just this fact that I have wrong. Please!

[cryptocoin 0]

Quote

Did anyone else find this line rather amusing?

I think Clinton was still President the last time I picked up a newspaper.

LOL, Touche!

I like to read the paper though, usually at a cafe over a nice meal and drink.

Your comment above did come to mind when I stumbled across this article today...

http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306

It reminds me a lot of some of the comments in this thread and in the many hit piece articles you read on Bitcoin.

This was written when the internet was already more than two decades old.

Bitcoin is only 4.

[weekender 0]

cryptocoin

Quote

i am criticizing your arrogance and broad macro comments.

Please explain, I am simply suggesting that bitcoin is a good investment if you watch the markets.

That finance markets are inherently corrupt and that the us financial system is on the verge of collapse.

I would like you to explain yourself. broad comments about me with no real explanation are simply ad hominem.

If you are so educated on the financial system and my comments are so 'humorous' then please educate us.

I would like to believe that the future if the USD is sound... I cannot because printing billions and billions and billions of dollars can only cause inflation... If you hide that inflation then that can only cause a crash.

Bitcoin is not subject to such inflation. It does have it's own concerns but hyper inflation is not one of them.

You mentioned earlier that you refute that fact that the USD is backed by debt... I would have thought you would understand that. You understand how USD are issued right, of course you do.

So explain just this fact that I have wrong. Please!

no person could prove to you that the USD's is not doomed to collapse or that the financial markets are not corrupt. you cannot even grasp why a reasonable person would find them arrogant and humorous. but educating you has never been my point. I do not come here to play chess with pigeons. i post here on financial topics to expose people who are financially ignorant and try to stop others from getting hurt by their advice.

You have made extreme global macro predictions. you hype the benefit of a very speculative investment without every discussing the obvious risks. I am confident, at a minimum, i have shown those predictions are based on little to no financial experience or education. I do not have to prove that i'm a financial expert, just that you are not.

(edited to make a non material change to font)

"The point is, I'm weird, but I never felt weird."
John Frusciante

[cryptocoin 0]

Quote

I do not come here to play chess with pigeons.

But now you are playing like one...

The Federal Reserve is 100 years old today or at least the legislation that bought it into existence is.

In that time the value of the dollar has decreased by well over 90%, the gold that backed it to begin with is gone. And the United States is approaching 10 trillion dollars in debt.

At this moment more is being spent on 'air conditioning' in wasteful wars by the US than the entire NASA budget...

Heck the money loaned to the USA by the federal reserve to fund world war 2 has not even been paid back.

How can you ever suggest that such a system is going to succeed?

It is propped up by hope, lies and corruption, nothing else.

Take a step back and anyone can see. Maybe being so involved, it is hard for you to see the forest from the trees.

Now look at bitcoin. 4 years old, has about 4,500 times the computing power of the United States government’s mightiest supercomputer and is already traded the world around.

If you are going to play chess like a pigeon and claim superior knowledge, why not at least explain how I am so incredibly wrong.


I make no claim of being a financial expert. Though I am almost certain the USD will fail soon (2-20 years), I am certainly not the only one to suggest that.

In the meantime we already have an alternative.

:)

[kelpdiver 2]

cryptocoin

Now look at bitcoin. 4 years old, has a computing power of about 4,500 times the capacity of the United States government’s mightiest supercomputer and is already trade the world around.

If you are going to play chess like a pigeon and claim superior knowledge, why not at least explain how I am so incredibly wrong.

Stupid comments like this one about computing power don't help. WTF are you smoking?

Bitcoins do not think, compute, or even hold remotely stable value. You have no idea how important stability is for a currency. Or what the NSA has in computing power. Or the fact that the government has more than one computer.

Or put another way - in how many different nations can I buy a meal or a hotel room or a car with $100USD bills. Many nations don't even pretend to use their own currency, they just use dollars. Clearly they don't share your paranoia.

[cryptocoin 0]

Quote

Stupid comments like this one about computing power don't help. WTF are you smoking?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/reuvencohen/2013/11/28/global-bitcoin-computing-power-now-256-times-faster-than-top-500-supercomputers-combined/

I don't need to do the maths when the 'finance guys' are already doing it for me.

Bitcoins themselves do not think, but the network surely does.

Unlike the NSA or the Federal Reserve etc... The Bitcoin Network is completely transparent... No lies, no bullshit.

[weekender 0]

I've made no claims to my superior knowledge as you suggest. I've never even denied you cannot make money on Bitcoins. all i have done is try to bring some reason into this discussion so others can see your lack of knowledge and experience on the topic. with every post you make my job easier.

i do not have to disprove your silly predictions or conspiracy theories. you are the one making claims. i am not obligated to disprove them anymore than i must disprove Santa Claus because you claim his existence.

funny thing is you came here to hype your long position in Bitcoins. i am quite certain you have actually eroded peoples confidence in them. you are not a good hype man.

"The point is, I'm weird, but I never felt weird."
John Frusciante

[base698 1]

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Credit card fraud could be solved in a lot of ways, starting with one time use numbers. Or the banks actually giving a shit about it...right now they're content to write off the fraud, or impose the true costs on the consumers.

It's also much easier to build a UI that only requires a payment button--no need for people to enter billing address or phone number to prove who they are. All you need is the wallet address, sending the bitcoins to that completes the order. Bitpay already works this way.

[cryptocoin 0]

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I've made no claims to my superior knowledge as you suggest.

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im one little trader at one little bank and transact billions in a day.