beowulf 1 #76 January 28, 2013 I don't like polls or surveys regardless of what they are used for. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #77 January 28, 2013 QuoteSo we can safely say that there has been a significant increase in gun sales. Combine that with the long term decline of gun ownership, and the most plausible explanation is that repeat buyers make up the bulk of the purchases.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #78 January 28, 2013 QuoteI don't like polls or surveys regardless of what they are used for. That doesn't mean that they aren't a valid method for obtaining an accurate estimation of the population being examined.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #79 January 28, 2013 QuoteQuoteSo we can safely say that there has been a significant increase in gun sales. Combine that with the long term decline of gun ownership, and the most plausible explanation is that repeat buyers make up the bulk of the purchases. We don't know that there has been a decrease in gun owners. You just have a poll and survey that suggest that. You are assuming they are accurate. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #80 January 28, 2013 QuoteWe don't know that there has been a decrease in gun owners. Yes, we do. Just because you don't like surveys does not invalidate them.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #81 January 28, 2013 QuoteQuoteWe don't know that there has been a decrease in gun owners. Yes, we do. Just because you don't like surveys does not invalidate them. There is no way to verify the Gallup poll or GSS survey regarding this, so we can just agree to disagree. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #82 January 28, 2013 QuoteQuoteBut the thing is the surge is gun sales didn’t begin in 2008. Over the last 10 years (from 2002 to 2011) there has been a 54.1 percent rise in the number of NICS checks and the increase hasn’t all taken place since 2008. In 2005 there were 8,952,945 NICS checks. In 2006 the number topped 10 million. In 2007 NICS checks pushed passed 11 million. In 2008 NICS checks passed 12 million, and then hit the 14 million mark in 2009. They increased slightly (4 percent) through 2011. Did you notice that the Forbes article fails to provide the number of first time background checks? Did you notice that the Forbes author likens using the NICS data to an exit poll? Did you notice that the Forbes article only refers back as far as 1998, while we're discussing a longer term trend?Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #83 January 28, 2013 I didn't specify any time period. I don't think NICS specifies whether or not they are first time background checks and I didn't claim they did. I also said that the number of NICS background checks doesn't directly translate to gun purchases because not all result in a gun purchase, but most do. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #84 January 28, 2013 QuoteI don't think NICS specifies whether or not they are first time background checks and I didn't claim they did. Pity, since only first time NICS checks would be relevant to our discussion. We aren't interested in repeat buyers. If we can't separate the two groups via NICS checks, then those checks aren't a good metric for measuring gun ownership.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #85 January 28, 2013 Right, there isn't any hard data regarding new gun ownership. This is what NICS provide. From this there is no way to determine how many new gun owners or repeat buyers or even the total gun purchases. It could give a rough estimate of gun purchases. http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20130102_1998_2012_state_monthly_totals.pdf Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andy9o8 0 #86 January 28, 2013 QuoteThey wouldn't be very anonymous if there were such a compulsion. And if they weren't anonymous, then they'd probably be even less honestly answered. Regardless of what you feel about polls (assuming that your feelings are the same regardless of what the poll says), there are a ton of polls out there that have been conducted, and validated via later action. Wendy P. Quite true. Look, for example, at how the deft use of polls enhanced the reliability of John Rich's threads. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #87 January 28, 2013 QuoteThis is what NICS provide. From this there is no way to determine how many new gun owners or repeat buyers or even the total gun purchases. It could give a rough estimate of gun purchases. Agreed. Gun purchases, however, are not a good metric for measuring the rate of gun ownership. It is entirely possible and plausible that the former can increase while the latter decreases. Both Gallup polling and the General Social Survey suggest ownership is declining in the long term.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #88 January 28, 2013 We will just have to agree to disagree on this. I don't think that is enough to make a conclusion. I think it's much more likely that gun ownership is increasing. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wolfriverjoe 1,340 #89 January 28, 2013 QuoteWe will just have to agree to disagree on this. I don't think that is enough to make a conclusion. I think it's much more likely that gun ownership is increasing. It sure seems that way. I don't have any serious studies or proof, but I do know that there are a lot more members at the shooting range I am a part of. Some of that is due to the overall decline in shooting ranges, but I know a lot of the new members are new gun owners. They say "This is the first gun I've owned, can you help me with it.""There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy "~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #90 January 28, 2013 QuoteWe will just have to agree to disagree on this. I don't think that is enough to make a conclusion. I think it's much more likely that gun ownership is increasing. The maximum likelihood principle tells us it is more likely that ownership rate is decreasing while sales are increasing.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #91 January 28, 2013 Also consider that a significant number of guns are sold via private sales, of which there is no way to track. And there are the guns that are handed down from generation to generation. The numbers regarding gun ownership are very difficult to pin down. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #92 January 28, 2013 QuoteQuoteWe will just have to agree to disagree on this. I don't think that is enough to make a conclusion. I think it's much more likely that gun ownership is increasing. The maximum likelihood principle tells us it is more likely that ownership rate is decreasing while sales are increasing. Again that is your opinion and mine differs. I won't repeat myself again. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #93 January 28, 2013 QuoteAlso consider that a significant number of guns are sold via private sales, of which there is no way to track. And there are the guns that are handed down from generation to generation. The numbers regarding gun ownership are very difficult to pin down. I've already considered such things. Add the fact that gun registration is not universally required, and we quickly find that surveys are likely to be the best source of information regarding ownership rates.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #94 January 28, 2013 QuoteQuoteThe maximum likelihood principle tells us it is more likely that ownership rate is decreasing while sales are increasing. Again that is your opinion and mine differs. I won't repeat myself again. That was not an opinion; that was mathematics.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #95 January 28, 2013 QuoteQuoteQuoteThe maximum likelihood principle tells us it is more likely that ownership rate is decreasing while sales are increasing. Again that is your opinion and mine differs. I won't repeat myself again. That was not an opinion; that was mathematics. No, it's your opinion that surveys and polls are enough to draw conclusions from. I disagree. It's not a mathematical certainty. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #96 January 28, 2013 Quote Quote Quote Quote The maximum likelihood principle tells us it is more likely that ownership rate is decreasing while sales are increasing. Again that is your opinion and mine differs. I won't repeat myself again. That was not an opinion; that was mathematics. No, it's your opinion that surveys and polls are enough to draw conclusions from. I disagree. It's not a mathematical certainty. You should probably read up on the maximum likelihood principle before making such foolish statements. Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #97 January 28, 2013 The polls and surveys regarding gun ownership could be entirely wrong. It just depends on who responds and how truthful they are. I think many gun owners would not respond and that would skew the numbers. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #98 January 28, 2013 QuoteThe polls and surveys regarding gun ownership could be entirely wrong. It just depends on who responds and how truthful they are. True, they could be. It is FAR more likely, however, that they're pretty accurate, especially since there has been no data presented that contradicts them.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 #99 January 28, 2013 There is no data that supports them. They are inconclusive. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #100 January 28, 2013 QuoteThere is no data that supports them. Survey results describe the data collected for the survey. If there is no data, then there is no survey. Or, equivalently, if there is a survey, there is data.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
