0
beowulf

Gun Control Study

Recommended Posts

Quote

Quote

Quote

Quote

There isn't any way to know that answer.



Well, not if you're going to ignore the fact that we already have the answer.



You have shown that to be true. Survey's and polls are not reliable.



Yes, and I did so by highlighting the inaccuracies of your posts. Thank you for making it easy.



I meant that you had not shown that to be true.

Just trotting out surveys and polls doesn't prove anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Quote

I wouldn't consider a survey to be very accurate either.



Much like Romney's campaign staff? They sure showed Nate Silver!



No idea what you are talking about here. I don't like Mitt Romney and didn't vote for him. Didn't keep up with his campaign at all.



They didn't believe in the accuracy of the polls (which are essentially just short surveys). That's why Romney and many other Republicans were shocked when Obama won the electoral college fairly easily.
Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gun sales have been up and you seem to think that's all been repeat buyers and no new buyers. That is very unlikely to be true considering that people have noticed an increase in women buying guns which would directly mean more new gun owners. I think it's not reasonable to consider that the increase in gun sales would not mean an increase in the number of new gun owners.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Just trotting out surveys and polls doesn't prove anything.



But a Forbes article that doesn't even examine the right question is an authoritative source? :S


I didn't say it was authoritative. It does show a perception of an increase in women buying guns which would along with the increase in gun sales suggest that there is an increase in new gun owners.

It's better then a poll or survey.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm sure there are some new owners. Is it a significant increase, or is it an increase that could be considered to be the same, statistically, as the current number.

BTW, if a decrease can be deemed insignificant, so can an increase.

And I still think the internet & media are a bigger cause of the current gun & ammo shortage than Obama is -- it's the fear being spread that makes people buy more than they normally would have, and that's what leads to short-term shortages.

Wendy P.
There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Gun sales have been up and you seem to think that's all been repeat buyers and no new buyers. That is very unlikely to be true considering that people have noticed an increase in women buying guns which would directly mean more new gun owners. I think it's not reasonable to consider that the increase in gun sales would not mean an increase in the number of new gun owners.



What we know is that gun ownership is in a long term downward trend. If gun sales are increasing, then that means that people buying their first gun are outnumbered by gun owners either getting rid of their last gun or dying without leaving guns to non-owners.
Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

But the thing is the surge is gun sales didn’t begin in 2008. Over the last 10 years (from 2002 to 2011) there has been a 54.1 percent rise in the number of NICS checks and the increase hasn’t all taken place since 2008. In 2005 there were 8,952,945 NICS checks. In 2006 the number topped 10 million. In 2007 NICS checks pushed passed 11 million. In 2008 NICS checks passed 12 million, and then hit the 14 million mark in 2009. They increased slightly (4 percent) through 2011.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Gun sales have been up and you seem to think that's all been repeat buyers and no new buyers. That is very unlikely to be true considering that people have noticed an increase in women buying guns which would directly mean more new gun owners. I think it's not reasonable to consider that the increase in gun sales would not mean an increase in the number of new gun owners.



What we know is that gun ownership is in a long term downward trend. If gun sales are increasing, then that means that people buying their first gun are outnumbered by gun owners either getting rid of their last gun or dying without leaving guns to non-owners.



We don't know that gun ownership is decreasing. That is your unsubstantiated claim.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Quote

It's better then a poll or survey.



Actually, it isn't remotely as good, as sources go.



They quoted NICS numbers. Verify them if you think they are wrong.



It doesn't matter if the article is right or wrong. It doesn't address the right question to support your claim, even if it is right.
Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Quote

Quote

It's better then a poll or survey.



Actually, it isn't remotely as good, as sources go.



They quoted NICS numbers. Verify them if you think they are wrong.



It doesn't matter if the article is right or wrong. It doesn't address the right question to support your claim, even if it is right.



Sure it does. It gives us an idea of the number of gun sales. You are assuming they are all repeat buyers or that people are getting rid of their guns as new gun buyers are buying gun. An assumption.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

We don't know that gun ownership is decreasing. That is your unsubstantiated claim.



Unsubstantiated, except for the two sources I provided. :S


Your sources are not credible.

Polls and surveys can found to substantiate any claim you want. They are not credible sources of information. How many of those people lied? I think most gun owners would avoid answering a poll or survey asking about gun ownership.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

It doesn't matter if the article is right or wrong. It doesn't address the right question to support your claim, even if it is right.



Sure it does. It gives us an idea of the number of gun sales. You are assuming they are all repeat buyers or that people are getting rid of their guns as new gun buyers are buying gun. An assumption.



No, I'm not assuming anything. I'm simply going by what we know. Increased gun sales do not imply increased gun ownership. You are assuming, without supporting evidence, that they do.

Considering how many people I know who used to own a gun or two and now own small arsenals, I don't see any reason to disbelieve that gun ownership can decline while gun sales increase. While my own observations are not data, they also don't contradict data.
Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Your sources are not credible.

Polls and surveys can found to substantiate any claim you want. They are not credible sources of information. How many of those people lied? I think most gun owners would avoid answering a poll or survey asking about gun ownership.



Properly conducted polls and surveys are quite credible, actually. We already covered that, though.
Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

It doesn't matter if the article is right or wrong. It doesn't address the right question to support your claim, even if it is right.



Sure it does. It gives us an idea of the number of gun sales. You are assuming they are all repeat buyers or that people are getting rid of their guns as new gun buyers are buying gun. An assumption.



No, I'm not assuming anything. I'm simply going by what we know. Increased gun sales do not imply increased gun ownership. You are assuming, without supporting evidence, that they do.

Considering how many people I know who used to own a gun or two and now own small arsenals, I don't see any reason to disbelieve that gun ownership can decline while gun sales increase. While my own observations are not data, they also don't contradict data.



That is anecdotal evidence at best. It's not reasonable to think that the increased sales would not result in an increase in gun owners. Especially considering how big the increase has been in the NICS background checks.

Poll's and Surveys are not reliable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Your sources are not credible.

Polls and surveys can found to substantiate any claim you want. They are not credible sources of information. How many of those people lied? I think most gun owners would avoid answering a poll or survey asking about gun ownership.



Properly conducted polls and surveys are quite credible, actually. We already covered that, though.



Just because you say they are doesn't mean they are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Poll's and Surveys are not reliable

What makes them unreliable?

Wendy P.
There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

It doesn't matter if the article is right or wrong. It doesn't address the right question to support your claim, even if it is right.



Sure it does. It gives us an idea of the number of gun sales. You are assuming they are all repeat buyers or that people are getting rid of their guns as new gun buyers are buying gun. An assumption.



No, I'm not assuming anything. I'm simply going by what we know. Increased gun sales do not imply increased gun ownership. You are assuming, without supporting evidence, that they do.

Considering how many people I know who used to own a gun or two and now own small arsenals, I don't see any reason to disbelieve that gun ownership can decline while gun sales increase. While my own observations are not data, they also don't contradict data.



Your observation doesn't necessarily support your conclusions. There can be an increase in repeat buyers and new buyers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

That is anecdotal evidence at best.



That's what I said.

Quote

It's not reasonable to think that the increased sales would not result in an increase in gun owners.



It's not reasonable to assume they would without data, as you keep trying to do.

Quote

Poll's and Surveys are not reliable.



They are more reliable than you seem willing to admit.
Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They wouldn't be very anonymous if there were such a compulsion. And if they weren't anonymous, then they'd probably be even less honestly answered.

Regardless of what you feel about polls (assuming that your feelings are the same regardless of what the poll says), there are a ton of polls out there that have been conducted, and validated via later action.

Wendy P.
There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The only thing we really know for certain is that there has been a significant increase in NICS background checks, of which not all would result in a gun sale. Most would. So we can safely say that there has been a significant increase in gun sales. How many of them are repeat buyers or new gun buyers is not directly known. We do have anecdotal evidence of repeat gun buyers and an increase in women buying guns. I suspect that it' highly likely that there have been both repeat buyers and new buyers.

Polls and surveys only reflect those that were willing to answer them. Considering the distrust that people have in the government regarding gun ownership I think it's highly likely that many people would either not participate or answer truthfully.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

0