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lawrocket

Cargo Cults

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Many of you are aware of the “Cargo Cult.” For those that aren’t, in the 1970’s a physicist named Richard Feyman delivered a commencement speech at Caltech. In it he spoke about Pacific islanders who did quite well during WWII as their islands were logistical centers that brought a lot of steel and economic good times. When the war ended, so did the good times. The island leaders then came up with the idea: planes and landing strips brought steel. If we build landing strips and planes then more steel will come. So they build stuff that looked like landing strips. And they built nice looking replicas of plane out of balsa and bamboo, expecting the steel to come.

Isn’t this what we see in policy a lot? Here in Fresno, it’s a many years long battle they are having to try to “revitalize downtown.” SO before I even lived here, they put in a nice new baseball stadium. The logic being that successful downtown areas have nice sports stadiums/arenas. Therefore, put in a nice stadium and the area will be successful. The thing actually is pretty nice. And sits mostly unused and always unfilled. I’ve been there twice – no times in the last eight years.

We see it in education policy. The most successful societies have been the most educated. The cargo cult mentality says, “educate highly and success will follow. Therefore, an educated society will be successful.” Um – NO. Take a look at student debt crisis. Educated people, eh? Without opportunities to apply their educations. It just may be that education is actually the RESULT of prosperity – as prosperity increases, the demand for educated workforce increases and education fills in that gap. (The US Department of Education has only been a Cabinet-level department since 1979.)

How about political economy? Right now there’s a lot of focus on the “middle class.” How many speeches and soundbites have we heard about “growing from the middle out.” Fundamentally, there are advocates on both sides saying that they need to increase the size and prosperity of the middle class. Prosperous times had a large middle class. Therefore, if we create a larger landing strip middle class then prosperity will follow.

How about looking at how the middle class got created to begin with? It resulted from prosperity. The nation did set itself to build a strong middle class. Instead it set out to build a country and a strong middle class resulted. The middle class came out of that system.

The ideas that one sees in science can be applied elsewhere. The Cargo Cult is one that I’ve been thinking about and I’m seeing it. Cause v. effect. It’s why quantitative easing still hasn’t had the effect we are looking for. “Prosperous times had a high stock market. If we raise the stock market then prosperous times will result.” The DOW is 500 points below of its record high in October, 2007. Some say, “Not enough QE! Needed to do way more!” I think the argument itself is similar to, “need to build more runways!”

I’m finding myself chuckling. Yes, I am a hardcore skeptic. I am looking at so many of these policy pronouncements as “effect -> cause.” Hey, the Cargo Cults did have some popular support. They sure as hell made sense at the time.


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We see it in education policy. The most successful societies have been the most educated. The cargo cult mentality says, “educate highly and success will follow. Therefore, an educated society will be successful.” Um – NO. Take a look at student debt crisis. Educated people, eh? Without opportunities to apply their educations. It just may be that education is actually the RESULT of prosperity – as prosperity increases, the demand for educated workforce increases and education fills in that gap. (The US Department of Education has only been a Cabinet-level department since 1979.)

.



Unfortunately there is a very long time lag between starting education and the production of an educated workforce. Which is why some kind of predictive mechanism is required.

Rather like the fancy thermostats that turn on the furnace BEFORE the pipes freeze.
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>Isn’t this what we see in policy a lot?

Well, the difference there is that development in downtown centers often works. It worked in San Diego for example. It would be a better analogy if sometimes those fake runways and airplanes sometimes did bring the commerce back.

Now, whether that is a good use of money is a different question. Sometimes it isn't.

> The cargo cult mentality says, “educate highly and success will follow. Therefore,
>an educated society will be successful.”

I agree that's not quite right. It would be more accurate to say "an uneducated populace cannot be successful, so education is one of the requirements for success." It is, of course, far from the only one.

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I get that there is a lag time. I actually pointed out the problem of lag: education without opportunity. Lag is a double-edged sword. There is education provided for industries that do not have good present prospects. There are other industries that will fall by the wayside. Take a look at architectural draftmen.

The lag time is dependent on the market. Who can accurately predict the educational needs in five years? Back when I got started as a lawyer everybody was looking at mergers and acquisitions and IPO work. It went from a scarcity of those attorneys to a glut of them within months. Do we turn out more M&A lawyers because that’s what we had when the economy was humming? Do we turn out more of them because we’ll want them in the future? Or do we find out what types are needed at any particular time and then fill the void?

It requires prediction and directing of resources. Often it is to accomplish a policy goal. And often it fails because they put out people who are educated, but often without a business that makes use of that education.


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Well, the difference there is that development in downtown centers often works.



Indeed. Why does it sometimes work and sometimes not work? I can say that here, there are several factors that seem to be overriding:
(1) redevelopment focuses on getting revenue for the city. This means charging for parking, frequent ticketing, police stopping people, checkpoints, etc. People won’t go there if it’s nothing but hassle.
(2) Other closer choices. There’s plenty of stuff to do five miles up the freeway. Parking’s free, and it’s where more people (and more affluent people) live.
(3) Revitalizing and outdoor mall. People don’t want to go there in the summer or winter, anyway.
(4) Focus on revenues for the city means that businesses who want to move in are paying additional fees, etc.

And they think that putting in some anchor business would be good. Problem is no anchor business wants to be there when they can be five miles north. They are actually discussing putting in an outdoor ice skating rink to attract patrons. In Fresno. Well, outdoor skating rinks are in other places and they do well. Actually, these outdoor skating rinks are in places that are already doing well. When there are enough people to support a skating rink, then go for it.

Again, it’s not that other places haven’t been revitalized. San Diego did it. Long Beach did it admirably. The place was a shithole but when the Olympics came to LA, Shoreline Village was developed and every time I go back I think, wow! This place is still growing.


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>(1) redevelopment focuses on getting revenue for the city.
>(2) Other closer choices. There’s plenty of stuff to do five miles up the freeway.
>(3) Revitalizing and outdoor mall.
>(4) Focus on revenues for the city . . ..

In my experience, the biggest issue is generally (5) - the new development is just not that compelling and does not result in a significant increase in tourism/business/hotel reservations etc.

>Again, it’s not that other places haven’t been revitalized.

Right, and the trick is knowing where it will work and where it won't (if your goal is more commerce that is.)

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>Isn’t this what we see in policy a lot?

Well, the difference there is that development in downtown centers often works. It worked in San Diego for example. It would be a better analogy if sometimes those fake runways and airplanes sometimes did bring the commerce back.



Did San Diego bring the commerce back, or just redistribute it towards downtown? It already had the Padres and Chargers and Jack Murphy Stadium. It also has continued development on the edges, so the population base continues to build.

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I think the weakness of your analogy is that "cargo cults" were founded on a complete misunderstanding of cause and effect, to the point where supernatural powers were ascribed to things such as airplanes and radios. I will grant you that our understanding of/ability to make predictions in economics often seems no better than guessing at demons and faeries. The problem with your analogy is that you seem to include every possible investment where something is expended now in anticipation of future results as "cargo cultism". The business owner who invests in an advertizing campaign is doing so in the expectation that it will bring more customers in the door. Is that "cargo cultism?" The individual who invests their own time, energy, money, etc in obtaining an education does so in anticipation of a future payoff (career that potentially pays better and/or is more interesting). No one has any guarantee that they will get such a job, but it's pretty much assured that you won't get the job if you haven't spent the time to get the training. I suspect you wouldn't say that person was a practicing "cargo cultist" because they were getting an education (~building a runway) in hope of landing a good job (~getting airplanes to land).

Does it somehow become cargo cultism if the investment is done by a community as opposed to individuals? Is it your argument that communities should never invest in resources that could reasonably (but not with any iron-clad guarantee) be expected to attract desirable development/industries? The city/county where I live has long tried to attract biotech industries to the area. We were shortlisted by some such companies, but eventually were passed over; in a few cases the companies chose to locate in the research triangle area of North Carolina. Indications were given that the lack of a sufficient pool of trained workers was a major factor in the decisions of some companies to go elsewhere. As a result, the state and local governments came up with the money to offer a biotechnology program at the local community college. Such programs require a considerable up front investment in state of the art equipment and in highly qualified instructors. Subsequently, one major manufacturer of veterinary drugs decided to stay here and expand their facilities, when they had previously announced an intention to move to another state, and a number of biotech start-ups (birthed from research at the local University) have decided to develop production facilities locally instead of moving elsewhere as they grow. So, was the investment in education opportunities for the local population an example of "cargo cultism", or was it a community investment in a trained work force that is needed to attract investment in the area?

Don
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Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)

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Mixing up cause vs effect is pretty much the job of well meaning politicians and pretty much why our economy and our social culture is complete trash now.

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Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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>Did San Diego bring the commerce back, or just redistribute it towards downtown?

I imagine there are places that are dying but the new "hot spots" seem to be growing faster overall. The downtown near the stadium is one area; the area it was built in was pretty blighted. North Park is growing like crazy and the 30th st/El Cajon ave area is seeing a renaissance on restaurants/bars. There's a lot going on by the waterfront and even Chula Vista is seeing gentrification. And of course North County is growing almost everywhere.

However, note that the only two big city projects that might have led to this were the cruise ship terminal and the stadium. Plenty of areas have seen growth without such expensive "public" works.

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Maybe not the best analogy. You kind of have it reversed.

Cargo Cults go back to the late 1800s. The Jon Frum cult, probably the most interesting, started in the 1930s.

One might even say that the Cargo movement was spectacularly successful, as the huge influx of 'cargo' brought by the US military during WW2 vindicated the beliefs of the adherents.

Let's built some model aircraft, runways and warehouses. What's to lose?

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Mixing up cause vs effect is... pretty much why our social culture is complete trash now.



You mean it wasn't Elvis and The Rolling Stones?


Clearly Elvis and The Rolling Stones were the result and not the cause of a depraved society.



but wearing pants too low is a clear sign of the apocalypse - and dumbassedness

that includes cargo pants

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I think the weakness of your analogy is that "cargo cults" were founded on a complete misunderstanding of cause and effect, to the point where supernatural powers were ascribed to things such as airplanes and radios.



I think it more simple: people want x. They see that when there is x there is y. So they try to create y hoping x will result. It’s not a contrapositive.

The analogy is not perfect. Admittedly.

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The problem with your analogy is that you seem to include every possible investment where something is expended now in anticipation of future results as "cargo cultism".



I can see the concern. But there are some pretty simple ideas that can be seen. Like putting an arts center in a seedy neighborhood because nice areas have art centers.

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The business owner who invests in an advertizing campaign is doing so in the expectation that it will bring more customers in the door.



Yes. That’s not cargo cultism. Cargo cultism is opening a business without marketing because you think people will need it.

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The individual who invests their own time, energy, money, etc in obtaining an education does so in anticipation of a future payoff (career that potentially pays better and/or is more interesting).



Again, that’s working on a cause to achieve an effect. Cargo cult would be “smarter people tend to earn more. Thus, if people had more money they’d be smarter. Thus, give money to the poor.”

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I suspect you wouldn't say that person was a practicing "cargo cultist" because they were getting an education (~building a runway) in hope of landing a good job (~getting airplanes to land).



Nope. I wouldn’t. Investment is different from a cargo cult. Investments are risks. A cargo cult is one that thinks the effect can be a cause.

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Does it somehow become cargo cultism if the investment is done by a community as opposed to individuals?



No. The issues are the same but are greatly amplified. And there is far less to stop a person from a risky investment if it is not that person’s own money he/she is using.

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Is it your argument that communities should never invest in resources that could reasonably (but not with any iron-clad guarantee) be expected to attract desirable development/industries?



No. Not at all. Such things as building infrastructure is a good thing. Building and maintaining roads and highways is a good thing to attract commerce. It’s the difference between building roads in the hope of vehicles and building vehicles in the hope of roads.

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As a result, the state and local governments came up with the money to offer a biotechnology program at the local community college.



That’s a natural logic flow. “As a result.”

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So, was the investment in education opportunities for the local population an example of "cargo cultism", or was it a community investment in a trained work force that is needed to attract investment in the area?



It was good sense. There was a known demand and supply was given to meet it. There was still risk, but the risk was more calculated.

I do appreciate your cogent points and response.


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>Yes. That’s not cargo cultism. Cargo cultism is opening a business without
>marketing because you think people will need it.

Well, cargo cultism would be making a cardboard mockup of a business hoping that money would magically come your way. Opening a business without market research or a solid business plan is more the American way.

>Such things as building infrastructure is a good thing. Building and maintaining
> roads and highways is a good thing to attract commerce.

Agreed. But that's also "building something because you think people will need it." When we first started building roads people didn't need them much; most commerce moved by train and boat. But we guessed that in the future more people would move by road and we were right.

> It’s the difference between building roads in the hope of vehicles and building
>vehicles in the hope of roads.

Both, of course, have to happen. The nascent auto industry was dependent on the small number of roads that cities and states had built (and later that the federal government built.)

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I'm sick of you guys pointing out exceptions and different perspectives to my ideas. Poking holes in them with reasonable differing perspectives.



Isn't that what SC is for?? ;)

It's just not normal for the opposing views to be reasonable and rational. :)

And I've personally seen what you are talking about. Mid-eighties, downtown Appleton Wi was in serious decline. The economy was down, and retail was fleeing. The big new mall built on the edge of town, technically in the neighboring town that the mayor really hated, was "stealing our downtown."

So if everyone wants to go to a "mall". they decided to build one in the middle of downtown. You know, "If we build it they will come... back."

Yep, it worked great. They kind of ignored that the new mall had free parking, lots of stores, was fully indoors and was easy to get to from the highway.

So they closed off a major street going through downtown, built this medium sized mall (nowhere near as big as the new one) and watched it...

Stay half empty. The two major department stores closed. One after less than a year, the other after a few more years. Both of those were converted into office space and a children's museum. The office space was the only thing that kept the two restaraunts in the food court alive (there was space for a dozen or more). There were a few stores that stayed, but they were downtown fixtures that got a rent subsidy because their original stores were torn down to build the mall. Nobody who actually had to operate under real business conditions made it. Nobody.

It was a joke. That cost the taxpayers a lot of money.
"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

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Lawrocket, you are 100% right!
We quickly confuse causation from correlation!
Especially in the complex world of macro economics.
Life through good thoughts, good words, and good deeds is necessary to ensure happiness and to keep chaos at bay.

The only thing that falls from the sky is birdshit and fools!

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I do appreciate your cogent points and response.



I think it's pertinent that you had to take that entire post and respond point by point to differentiate cause vs effect vs real investment on each of his examples and why they don't address your original point. And that just CALLING the boondoggles an "investment" doesn't make it so.


When the whole point of the thread is the inability of some to be able to EXACTLY THAT.

It pretty much proves your original assertion in a blatant way.


Did you know? Winning NFL teams have new stadiums.

And according to the wizard of Oz - the only difference between smart and dumb people is certificates - give the scarecrow a diploma he doesn't earn and suddenly he's smart (suddenly, he pretends to talk smart anyway with a lousy grasp of trigonometry)

this whole thread pretty much defines well meaning but poorly thought out social and economic agendas we are flooded with (NOT a party specific comment by any means)




{{the mayor of St Paul wants to build a street trolley line - you can look up the reasoning, but it's applicable to the thread}}

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Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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I'm sick of you guys pointing out exceptions and different perspectives to my ideas. Poking holes in them with reasonable differing perspectives.



really? i thought most was contrived and full of strawman points and non-sequitors that don't even attempt to acknowledge your point

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Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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I'm sick of you guys pointing out exceptions and different perspectives to my ideas. Poking holes in them with reasonable differing perspectives.



really? i thought most was contrived and full of strawman points and non-sequitors that don't even attempt to acknowledge your point



Billvon pointed out - and I acknowledge - that sometimes it actually works. And Don's points are, in many ways, valid. Don's points also linked up with kallend's point about educational lag. In the end I didn't see Don's circumstances as being indicative but I can understand nuances of the arguments.


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True - that's a great response, but I think the postings here specifically are by smart people (IMHO: BV, Don and Kallend are very smart) that actually get the point, but purposely were obtuse about it to just discuss the tangentials.


this wasn't our normal group of angry and dense posters that we expect honest misreads from - these are smarter posters. But the one post (I forget who) essentially reads "You're wrong - here's why my misread of your concept applies to my position"


Did you know that healthy societies have people with longer life spans? Perhaps keeping critical patients on life support will reduce heart disease.

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Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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>Opening a business without market research or a solid business plan is more the American way.




those wacky stupid Americans

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Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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