Isaac

[lawrocket 3]

The US hasn't experienced a hurricane making landfall since Ike in 2008. (To those of you who say, "Irene," I followed those wind readings real time and I never saw winds that met the definition of "hurricane." Show me data on Irene in the US that meets "hurricane" definition and I'll retract).

We haven't had a major hurricane since Wilma in 2005. (Recall 2004 and 2005 we had ten hurricanes - seven "major" - make landfall in the US).

Since at least the Civil War we have not gone this long. Will Isaac finally put an end to the streak? Will Isaac be a hurricane that hits Tampa during the RNC? And - who will be the first pundit to gleefully brag about a hurricane hitting global warming deniers in a four year convention whilst ignoring the human cost?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[normiss 619]

I didn't realize it's been that long since a good freezer cleaning.
Time to buy beer and charcoal!

HURRICANE PARTYYYYYYY!!!

[Bertt 0]

Well, I don't know the pundit's name, but one of the talking heads on MSNBC (or maybe it was CNN) actually pointed out that some Republicans have blamed weather phenomena on God's wrath and this might just be his answer.
Gotta love those hard-hitting, investigative journalists.

You don't have to outrun the bear.

[lawrocket 3]

I'm wondering whether this will be termed the "RNC Effect" as the equal and opposite to the "Gore Effect."

The predictability of media and political punditry.

And Mark - Clovis, NM is so jacked up that hurricanes won't go there.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Andy9o8 0]

This should be a poll, with boobies.

[oldwomanc6 38]

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And Mark - Clovis, NM is so jacked up that hurricanes won't go there.

That's true! When I said it blows, it wasn't hurricanes I was talking about.

lisa
WSCR 594
FB 1023
CBDB 9

[normiss 619]

Cruel.
Just plain mean.

[BIGUN 1,042]

While Irene was technically a Hurricane (Cat 1) as it skimmed the outer coast of North Carolina, it technically never made landfall. I was in Virginia Beach on contract for the storm. For now, the current path is a news event... From my experience, the real determination of path won't be realized until it crosses the keys and gets into the Gulf's warmer waters.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[winsor 185]

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While Irene was technically a Hurricane (Cat 1) as it skimmed the outer coast of North Carolina, it technically never made landfall. I was in Virginia Beach on contract for the storm. For now, the current path is a news event... From my experience, the real determination of path won't be realized until it crosses the keys and gets into the Gulf's warmer waters.

Roger that.

I was helping my father move to Stuart, FL when some kind of storm was making a fuss around Puerto Rico. I sagely explained that the storm would continue Westbound until it hit the Gulf Stream, at which point it would veer to the right. "Boy, are those people in the Outer Banks going to get it!"

Fast forward a few days and my father had been packed off to Atlanta, and I got to see stars in the wee hours as the eye of Frances was dead overhead.

Then you had the storm that was in the Gulf, which everyone knew was going to dissipate as it went Eastward across Florida.

Of course, Wilma did - but she reintensified when the eye stalled on the Atlantic Coast. My in-laws were in for quite a ride as their condo rocked enough to slosh onto the floor the water they stored in the bathtub.

Needless to say, when anyone asks what a hurricane is going to do my response is "gee, I don't know."

Mother Nature is a bitch.


BSBD,

Winsor

[lawrocket 3]

And the winner is - JOE ROMM!!!

[Url]http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/22/729301/gop-climate-deniers-hold-convention-in-tampa-but-mayor-warns-hes-prepared-to-call-it-off-if-hurricane-isaac-hits/?mobile=wp[/url]

I knew what you were gonna do before you did, Joe...

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[funjumper101 15]

I am hoping that Isaac goes past the Keys into the gulf, then hooks around and does a direct hit on the Tampa area the day the the rescumlican convention is scheduled to start.

That would be an excellent message from God that he is not happy with the scumbags that have taken over a once respectable political party.

GO ISAAC!!!!

[SpeedRacer 1]

Not gonna happen. Everyone knows that hurricanes are caused by gay pride parades.

Speed Racer
--------------------------------------------------

[lawrocket 3]

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I am hoping that Isaac goes past the Keys into the gulf, then hooks around and does a direct hit on the Tampa area the day the the rescumlican convention is scheduled to start.

That would be an excellent message from God that he is not happy with the scumbags that have taken over a once respectable political party.

GO ISAAC!!!!

Seems to me the GOP convention would be safe and comfortable. It'd be all the protesters outside catching hell. Occupy Tampa, etc. Come to think of it, the poor and homeless would be the ones to face the consequences.

So when the GOP folks are all safe and sound and the rioters outside are impaled with blowing fence posts, would that be read as a message from God?

Seriously - do you work at misanthropy or does it come out naturally?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[tkhayes 123]

http://mediamatters.org/research/2005/09/13/religious-conservatives-claim-katrina-was-gods/133804

So if Katrina is God's punishment, then Isaac coming in on the RNC is.....?

[Andy9o8 0]

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http://mediamatters.org/research/2005/09/13/religious-conservatives-claim-katrina-was-gods/133804

So if Katrina is God's punishment, then Isaac coming in on the RNC is.....?

Irrelevant. God only punishes fags. It's right there in the Bible.

[Meso 38]

Irene was borderline Category 1 at landfall, I remember being up all night tracking it through landfall (and the days prior). I recall some very marginal cat 1 winds around the OBX, but nothing that could secure it as a hurricane landfall.

I've been tracking Isaac now for a while too, a week or two prior to it's original wave exit off Africa, the GFS model was showing it being a quick developer and then heading out to sea. But it's development was surprised by the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) which is an area of dry air that hinders development (as all dry air does for tropical storms).

Once it reached the Caribbean it was supposed to strengthen and early NHC forecasts called for intensity that was near the SHIPS model (which is an aggressive intensity guidance model). But dry air and moderate NE shear ended up sending Isaac's convection to the SW, and to develop a well stacked inner core that is needed for strengthening you need the lows to be stacked above each other, this happens when you have a constant CDO (convection building strong over the LLC (low level center)).

It has been struggling with stacking issues non stop actually, there was an ULL (upper level low) to the NW of it which was enhancing outflow, which gave it a great satellite appearance, but the core has always remained troubled, with convective bursts occurring around the large LLC, and essentially instead of building a single circulation stacked onto the LLC the MLC (mid level circulation) of which there were a few, were existing around the LLC instead of on top of it's center.

Over the past 8 hours, it looks as though things may have improved a bit, with the latest recon flight showing that the LLC and MLC may finally be stacking and that the multiple vorticies may have now died down and be consolidating.

Big news though is that last night the first G-IV flight went in, and the G-IV recon flight collects data for the model initialization, so the models should now be more accurate. And it's looking like Alabama to the east side of the FL panhandle is the most likely place for the main landfall as the current models stand.

Though recon is currently in the storm now and the talking point between us weather nerds is that the NHC position was at 16.9N at the 2am, while recon found the center at around 15N - which could mean a huge change in track. The models will likely be run from the new initialization point in the 06z model runs. Center relocation is caused by convection a lot of the time, with convection that is strong tending to pull the circulation towards it.

Though there are still so many questions, such as - is this now the primary circulation - have the other vorts disappeared, is the core becoming stacked.

There are still a lot of variables, it could make landfall in Cuba and have it's circulation destroyed, it could make it over fine. It could be stacking and start to strengthen rapidly, it could just slowly gain another 5mph every 12 hours. It could trend more west or it could trend east, depending on center relocations.

It's why obsessive tracking is so fun

[lawrocket 3]

Show me where I've ever approved of such statenebts? Come to think of it, I recall the Book of Job speaking about attribution of God's reasons.

But hey - we've had one person openly ask for a hurricane to come through. Who'd have thunk that anyone on the left would view Pat Robertson and the like to be such role models. I don't want to wish desth and destruction on people because of religious viewpoint. It's so very, um, religious.

Pass the Tylenol.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 1,618]

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http://mediamatters.org/research/2005/09/13/religious-conservatives-claim-katrina-was-gods/133804

So if Katrina is God's punishment, then Isaac coming in on the RNC is.....?

Irrelevant. God only punishes fags. It's right there in the Bible.

No - God also punishes people who wear cotton-poly blends.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[pirana 0]

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http://mediamatters.org/research/2005/09/13/religious-conservatives-claim-katrina-was-gods/133804

So if Katrina is God's punishment, then Isaac coming in on the RNC is.....?

. . . a message from God. What else? Everything that has ever happened is a message from God. The message is "Please pick up a gallon of milk on the way home." At least that is the message I keep getting from my God.

" . . . the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging them and kicking them into obedience." -- Aldous Huxley

[Andy9o8 0]

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Quote

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http://mediamatters.org/research/2005/09/13/religious-conservatives-claim-katrina-was-gods/133804

So if Katrina is God's punishment, then Isaac coming in on the RNC is.....?

Irrelevant. God only punishes fags. It's right there in the Bible.

No - God also punishes people who wear cotton-poly blends.

See? There really some useful wisdom in the Bible.

[muff528 3]

Quote

Quote

Quote

Quote

http://mediamatters.org/research/2005/09/13/religious-conservatives-claim-katrina-was-gods/133804

So if Katrina is God's punishment, then Isaac coming in on the RNC is.....?

Irrelevant. God only punishes fags. It's right there in the Bible.

No - God also punishes people who wear cotton-poly blends.

See? There really some useful wisdom in the Bible.

I can see where there may be some confusion here. I think the word for "fag" and the word for "he who wears cotton/polyester blends" are the same in the ancient Akkadian language. A simple translation mix-up. I believe the same word was even used for "freestyle skydiver".

[billvon 2,379]

>Seems to me the GOP convention would be safe and comfortable. It'd be all the
>protesters outside catching hell.

True. And think of all the photo ops! Yellow-slickered reporters yelling into soggy microphones as protesters go tumbling by like so many damp, angry tumbleweeds.

On the minus side it will become harder for the GOP to blame Obama for the hurricane.

[normiss 619]

I thought Bush was responsible for hurricanes.

[billvon 2,379]

>I thought Bush was responsible for hurricanes.

That's so 2007.

[normiss 619]