dreamdancer 0 #1 December 28, 2011 getting closer... QuoteWar with Iran would mean the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, where the Iranian Navy began ten days of war games to practice doing just that on December 24th. At least 30% of all seaborne oil shipments pass through this chokepoint. Oil prices have been rising on the strength of the maneuvers alone: an actual blockade would double the price of oil overnight. Now that America's withdrawal from Iraq has been formalized, and Osama bin Laden, Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and Zine el Abidine Ben Ali have all been vanquished, after a year of unbelievable changes throughout the Middle East, my prediction is that Iran is about to regain center stage in the region. As a result of the US withdrawal, Iraq could be prone to more violence, and the Iranian leadership must certainly have taken note that none of the toppled leaders, including Sadam Hussein, possessed formal nuclear capabilities. The first act is already being played out in Syria, the only Arab state to align itself with Iran, and in the streets of Bahrain, its neighbor under Saudi control. The Saudis and the Israelis are mulling diplomatic as well as military options to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability in a revolutionary neighborhood. http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/12/27-7stay away from moving propellers - they bite blue skies from thai sky adventures good solid response-provoking keyboarding Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
matthewcline 0 #2 December 28, 2011 You almost sound giddy over it. MattAn Instructors first concern is student safety. So, start being safe, first!!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #3 December 28, 2011 perhaps to make up for sadness that Burma is righting itself. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dreamdancer 0 #4 December 28, 2011 forewarned is forearmed...stay away from moving propellers - they bite blue skies from thai sky adventures good solid response-provoking keyboarding Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kennedy 0 #5 December 29, 2011 Quoteforewarned is forearmed... ...and your forecasting is full of shit. Iran wouldn't dare blockade the strait. They would not have the support of OPEC and the US and other consumer nations would annihilate their navy in hours. It would be just another hiccup in the oil markets. And sort of actual war would be far less clean and clear.witty subliminal message Guard your honor, let your reputation fall where it will, and outlast the bastards. 1* Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrewwhyte 1 #6 December 29, 2011 Anyone know how deep the straight is? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mnealtx 0 #7 December 29, 2011 QuoteAnyone know how deep the straight is? The Persian Gulf runs 50-90m depth. Not finding much on specific depths for the Strait.Mike I love you, Shannon and Jim. POPS 9708 , SCR 14706 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrewwhyte 1 #8 December 29, 2011 So no chance of physically making it unnavigable a la Suez crisis. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mnealtx 0 #9 December 29, 2011 QuoteSo no chance of physically making it unnavigable a la Suez crisis. It would be difficult but not completely impossible to physically block the straight; some mines and a couple of Silkworm batteries at the 50km choke point and you've got a pretty effective blockade. With the largest supertankers having drafts of 20m or more, it wouldn't take too many being sunk to put a serious crimp in the amount of traffic that could pass.Mike I love you, Shannon and Jim. POPS 9708 , SCR 14706 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
airdvr 197 #10 December 29, 2011 Quotegetting closer... QuoteWar with Iran would mean the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, where the Iranian Navy began ten days of war games to practice doing just that on December 24th. At least 30% of all seaborne oil shipments pass through this chokepoint. Oil prices have been rising on the strength of the maneuvers alone: an actual blockade would double the price of oil overnight. Now that America's withdrawal from Iraq has been formalized, and Osama bin Laden, Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and Zine el Abidine Ben Ali have all been vanquished, after a year of unbelievable changes throughout the Middle East, my prediction is that Iran is about to regain center stage in the region. As a result of the US withdrawal, Iraq could be prone to more violence, and the Iranian leadership must certainly have taken note that none of the toppled leaders, including Sadam Hussein, possessed formal nuclear capabilities. The first act is already being played out in Syria, the only Arab state to align itself with Iran, and in the streets of Bahrain, its neighbor under Saudi control. The Saudis and the Israelis are mulling diplomatic as well as military options to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability in a revolutionary neighborhood. http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/12/27-7 So what about any of this would be accidental?Please don't dent the planet. Destinations by Roxanne Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nanook 1 #11 December 29, 2011 QuoteAnyone know how deep the straight is? Definitely the shallowest part of the Gulf. Easy to use mooring mines (has been done)._____________________________ "The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you can never know if they are genuine" - Abraham Lincoln Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest #12 December 29, 2011 I love this quote: "Loudmouthed saber-rattling is an age old custom in Southwest Asia. Even when their enemies hand them their asses on a plate, they still claim victory." mh ."The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dreamdancer 0 #13 December 29, 2011 they sound pretty confident... QuoteAdmiral Habibollah Sayari, commander of the Iranian navy, said that closing the Strait, and effectively strangling the global oil supply, would "be easier than drinking a glass of water". His comments came as the Iranian fleet continued a 10-day naval drill in international waters near the Strait involving ships, helicopters, submarines and hovercraft. The show of strength is designed to demonstrate how quickly Iran could close the 34-mile wide channel, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and through which 15 million barrels of oil, around a third of all supplies shipped by water, pass every day. In recent years, Iranian sailors have taken to driving their speedboats provocatively close to the ships of the American Fifth Fleet, which is based in Manama, only around 100 miles from Iran's coast line. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8981394/US-Navy-will-not-tolerate-Iran-closing-Strait-of-Hormuz.htmlstay away from moving propellers - they bite blue skies from thai sky adventures good solid response-provoking keyboarding Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sfzombie 3 #14 December 29, 2011 there is actually a billboard i've seen for about 3 years now that has a picture of iran's leader(forgot the name) and said "they make a killing a day" or something like that and asking what we were going to do about it. sounds like a call to action to me and makes me violently ill every time i drive by it. if a leader of a sovereign nation wants to lead his country, it's none of our business what he does and we certainly can't go around deposing leaders just because we don't agree with their style of leadership, period.http://kitswv.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gravitymaster 0 #15 December 29, 2011 Quotethey sound pretty confident... Saddam Hussein sounded pretty confident when he was sabre-rattling, too. Right up until the bombs started falling and the missles started hitting. Then he was found months later hiding in a hole in the ground. Hopefully, the leadership in Iran aren't dumb enough to fuck with the U.S. Navy. That would be a very, very bad mistake. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andy9o8 0 #16 December 29, 2011 QuoteQuotethey sound pretty confident... Saddam Hussein sounded pretty confident when he was sabre-rattling, too. Right up until the bombs started falling and the missles started hitting. Then he was found months later hiding in a hole in the ground. Hopefully, the leadership in Iran aren't dumb enough to fuck with the U.S. Navy. That would be a very, very bad mistake. Agreed, on all points. And yet, oil prices have just jumped as a result of this silly shit. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/markets/oil-hovers-below-100-after-report-shows-us-crude-supply-surge-suggesting-weaker-demand/2011/12/29/gIQAYxKkNP_story.html Who's the big loser in all this? Here's a hint: it's not the Iranians, it's not the oil companies, it's not the US military, and it's not US military contractors. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Skyrad 0 #17 December 29, 2011 Disagree. 1) Neither the UK or the USA can afford a war. 2) To be blunt the British forces simply aren't up to the job at the moment, they're over stretched and under resourced. (Currently the USMC has more planes, ships and fighting ability than the entire British armed forces). 3) There is no political policy in place to go to war with Iran despite mutual enmity between the nations government. 4) Why would the USA want to go to war with the British again after having to bale us out in both Iraq and Afghanistan? 5) As Kennedy rightly points out OPEC et al would not sit on the sidelines. 6) Its not the Iranian way of going about things, they prefer to use proxies. 7) Attacking Iran would unleash a terrorist campaign against the west which would be unprecedented in both scale and execution, and one which would be hard to fight. 8) In short its simply not worth the gains, would be to expensive and very unpopular. There is no support for such a war and no money to pay for it. 9) What would be the strategic goals of such a war? 10) Even if the USA did declare such a war it is unlikely that the UK would play much of a role. Our SF are still among the best in the world but the 'green' army needs a total overhaul.When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy. Lucius Annaeus Seneca Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kennedy 0 #18 December 29, 2011 Quotethey sound pretty confident... It's called sabre rattling. look it up. Analysis: Saber-rattling in Strait of Hormuz U.S.: Iran 'saber-rattling' over strait The best they could do is temporarily disrupt oil passage. It would hike the price of oil short term and piss off the world. It would also likely be "suicidal for the current regime."witty subliminal message Guard your honor, let your reputation fall where it will, and outlast the bastards. 1* Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
regulator 0 #19 December 29, 2011 Anyone have any ideas about the new successor to Kim Jong Un taking over the reins in North Korea? Do any of you think he could pose a threat as well? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shah269 0 #20 December 29, 2011 As much as i want to see all the camel fucking mullas hung and Iminneedofajacket shot.... We can't afford it! Man we be freaking broke! Life through good thoughts, good words, and good deeds is necessary to ensure happiness and to keep chaos at bay. The only thing that falls from the sky is birdshit and fools! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Skyrad 0 #21 December 29, 2011 and in massive debt.When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy. Lucius Annaeus Seneca Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BoogeyMan 0 #22 December 29, 2011 Quote As much as i want to see all the camel fucking mullas hung and Iminneedofajacket shot.... We can't afford it! Man we be freaking broke! Sure the US can afford it. BHO has just proposed raising the debt limit another $1.2 Trillion. The battle-field is already set. Look at a map. US in Iraq. US in Afghanistan. US fleet in the Gulf. Remember the last time the Iranians mined the straits? It was the excuse Reagan was itching for. This has been coming for awhile. No big news flash here. The recent explosions in Iran are too precise to be simple accidents. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BIGUN 1,051 #23 December 29, 2011 Quote Quote they sound pretty confident... It's called sabre rattling. look it up. Analysis: Saber-rattling in Strait of Hormuz U.S.: Iran 'saber-rattling' over strait The best they could do is temporarily disrupt oil passage. It would hike the price of oil short term and piss off the world. It would also likely be "suicidal for the current regime." Fucking skydivers... you got your "Sabres" mixed up... one is a parachute and a street name in Muskogee, Oklahoma and the other is a Saber. Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
normiss 622 #24 December 29, 2011 Might be somewhat ironic to use the Ayatollah class destroyers against the Iranians....put the Dead Admirals to work.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dreamdancer 0 #25 December 29, 2011 Quote Quote As much as i want to see all the camel fucking mullas hung and Iminneedofajacket shot.... We can't afford it! Man we be freaking broke! Sure the US can afford it. BHO has just proposed raising the debt limit another $1.2 Trillion. The battle-field is already set. Look at a map. US in Iraq. US in Afghanistan. US fleet in the Gulf. Remember the last time the Iranians mined the straits? It was the excuse Reagan was itching for. This has been coming for awhile. No big news flash here. The recent explosions in Iran are too precise to be simple accidents. i don't know whether china will lend the us enough for another war when that war will also cut off china's own oil supply...stay away from moving propellers - they bite blue skies from thai sky adventures good solid response-provoking keyboarding Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
