I forget; who was saying the 4th Q 2009 GDP wouldn't be 4.8%?

[Lucky... 0]

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

Well you're right, it's 5.7%! Of course that's still an estimate, but even if it falls to 4.8, 4.0, that's great news, right? Oh wait, you guys want Obama and the US to fail; my bad .

[rushmc 18]

Quote

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

Well you're right, it's 5.7%! Of course that's still an estimate, but even if it falls to 4.8, 4.0, that's great news, right? Oh wait, you guys want Obama and the US to fail; my bad .

Wait for the second or third "revision" and then get back to us

dont change the fact that 09 had the biggest loss in the since 42 or 3

Your a hoot

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

Quote

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

Well you're right, it's 5.7%! Of course that's still an estimate, but even if it falls to 4.8, 4.0, that's great news, right? Oh wait, you guys want Obama and the US to fail; my bad .

Wait for the second or third "revision" and then get back to us

dont change the fact that 09 had the biggest loss in the since 42 or 3

Your a hoot

Biggest loss in the what? As usual, your dribble makes no sense.

As for 2nd or 3rd revision, as I said, so what if it's 4.8, 4.0, or???, it's awesome for people who want the US to win, AKA: not you. Also, what if it's not adusted at all? What if it is adjusted higher? 5.7 is phenominal even if it is adjusted 20% lower. I'm sorry that Obama and the US is not failing.

[Belgian_Draft 0]

It's not.

HAMMER:
Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays is used as a
kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts adjacent the
object we are trying to hit.

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

It's not.

It's not what?

[chuckakers 370]

Quote

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

Well you're right, it's 5.7%! Of course that's still an estimate, but even if it falls to 4.8, 4.0, that's great news, right? Oh wait, you guys want Obama and the US to fail; my bad .

Guess you haven't heard the term "double dip recession". Have you not noticed that every positive economic report comes with a caveat about poor underlying data? This crap economy isn't close to over, and we have this anti-American leftist president (lower-cae "p" intentional) to thank for it.

Home sales hit a 17 year low in December. Unemployment is about to top the 11% mark and is well past 20% if you include the unemployed that are no longer on unemployment benefits and have literally given up looking for a job. Commercial REIT's are about to tank, and by the way, your numbers are actually crap once you adjust for inventory rebuilding levels.

Did I mention Ford turned a $2+ billion profit for 2009? Yes, Ford. The only one of Detroit's big 3 that DIDN"T take stimulus money.

Obama. Taking America from the frying pan to the fire, one guilty white man at a time.

Chuck Akers
D-10855
Houston, TX

[Belgian_Draft 0]

The 4th Q GDP isn't 4.8%. Or even 5.7%.

HAMMER:
Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays is used as a
kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts adjacent the
object we are trying to hit.

[Gawain 0]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703389004575032893301414842.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

It looks like there's some movement, but the concerns that remain are if the momentum can be maintained since the consumer spending slowed from 3Q09.

How the business inventories shore up will be up to watch as well.

On the construction front, Performance Bonding may begin to freeze up a little as companies try to get thin margin work off their books too.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[hwt 0]

Before you toot your horn too much , read this

Hatzius says much of the slow economic growth we've started seeing in recent months is due to temporary factors. The first is the effect of the inventory cycle as companies restart production lines following months of stock liquidation. The second is the fiscal stimulus, which he estimates is contributing the majority of the perceived growth. Taken together, these factors represent around a 4 percent boost that will most likely diminish or disappear by the second half of 2010 in the face of continued high unemployment, budget-conscious consumers, and overcapacity in the manufacturing sector and housing market.
Hatzius is this year's recipient of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy. The award, which is sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business, recognizes the economist who has compiled the most consistently accurate economic predictions over the preceding four-year period among those who contribute to the national Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Sluggish Growth for 2010 is expected...Blue Skies!

[rushmc 18]

Sluggish Growth for 2010 is expected...Blue Skies!

And then the prediction is it will get MUCH worse in 2011. This is very dependent however on whether congress decides to increase or decrease punishment on large and small business AND whether the current level of fed spending is maintained or increased

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 18]

Quote

Quote

Quote

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

Well you're right, it's 5.7%! Of course that's still an estimate, but even if it falls to 4.8, 4.0, that's great news, right? Oh wait, you guys want Obama and the US to fail; my bad .

Wait for the second or third "revision" and then get back to us

dont change the fact that 09 had the biggest loss in the since 42 or 3

Your a hoot

Biggest loss in the what? As usual, your dribble makes no sense.

As for 2nd or 3rd revision, as I said, so what if it's 4.8, 4.0, or???, it's awesome for people who want the US to win, AKA: not you. Also, what if it's not adusted at all? What if it is adjusted higher? 5.7 is phenominal even if it is adjusted 20% lower. I'm sorry that Obama and the US is not failing.

you just love being manipulated by the President don't you

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[airdvr 197]

I'm really hoping this is a recovery but I fear it's just the government pumping money into the economy. Unemployment is key. That's where the real recovery is. GDP doesn't put food on people's tables.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[rushmc 18]

Link found on one of your maybe favorite site? The Dem underground?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/shiller-on-depression-scares.html

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[Belgian_Draft 0]

Do you still think the 4th Q 2009 GDP was 5.7% (or somewhere in the vicinity)?

HAMMER:
Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays is used as a
kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts adjacent the
object we are trying to hit.

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

Guess you haven't heard the term "double dip recession". Have you not noticed that every positive economic report comes with a caveat about poor underlying data?

Sure, the data is shaky at best, but looking at what it could be based upon previous horrible economic times, I'm happy with some early + news. With the poor underlying data is news about the 700k/month jobs that were being lost, now cut to a small fraction of that. 2 of the 3 main indicators are awesome, the last, unemp is starting to shade our way.

Quote

This crap economy isn't close to over, and we have this anti-American leftist president (lower-cae "p" intentional) to thank for it.

- I'm optimistic, Obama is optimistoc; you're pesimistic hoping for failure and Obama is supposedly anti-American?

- This crap economy is far ahead of schedule and you know it.

- How is Obama to blame for it? Unemp was 8% as he inherited it and in freefall, the GDP was 4 of the last 5 Q's negative, the 1st Q of 09 hugely negative, and teh market was in freefall. That is probably one of the dumbest assertions I've read here.

Quote

Home sales hit a 17 year low in December.

And they weren't in freefall - all-time low - as Obama inherited the whitehouse?

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/26/real_estate/new_home_sales/index.htm?postversion=2009022611

Census Bureau says sales of newly built homes fell 10% in January to the lowest level since reporting began in 1963.

You should check your facts and start making some sense.

Quote

Unemployment is about to top the 11% mark ...

More nonsense from the purveyor of misinformation: http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?series_id=LNS14000000

Quote

... and is well past 20% if you include the unemployed that are no longer on unemployment benefits and have literally given up looking for a job.

Riiiiight. It's around 17%, has been for quite a while. http://www.cnbc.com/id/34040009 And when the unemployment rate is 7%, the real unemp rate is 12-13%. The 10% BLS to 17% real number is proportional to other eras of whatever the unemp rate is. Just as when you bit Hoover ran it to 25%, the real numbers were likely 40-50%. So again, the BLS unemp rate is 10.0%; I'm sorry for you it's not higher so you could further blame Obama for the mess he inherited.

Quote

Commercial REIT's are about to tank, and by the way, your numbers are actually crap once you adjust for inventory rebuilding levels.

They're not my numbers, they're the BLS' numbers; perhaps you've heard of them. Furthermore, even if the 4th Q numbers are adjusted, 3 great Q's since Obama's entry = his policies rock, yours suck.

Quote

Did I mention Ford turned a $2+ billion profit for 2009? Yes, Ford. The only one of Detroit's big 3 that DIDN"T take stimulus money.

Your point? Not taking stimulus money means you'll do better? Perhaps they were in a better position as the Great Repiblican Recession started.

Quote

Obama. Taking America from the frying pan to the fire, one guilty white man at a time.

I knew you couldn't leave w/o a racist remark. BTW, were well into the fire as Obama took office, in case you have a hard time extrapolating data, the numbers look great. Sorry guys like you who want America to fail are now depressed and having to fabricate data; I use BLS, BEA, gov data; stay away from the Cato Institute, Heritage Foundation and other Nazi sources - it rots ur brain.

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

The 4th Q GDP isn't 4.8%. Or even 5.7%.

Love your reluctance to state what it will be or perhaps make a wager to stay away from here if you're wrong. Mike refused to also - good for him, bad for us, he was wrong and didn't bet (that's the bad for us part).

BTW, sorry America isn't in ruins to prove you right, I actually want America to win unlike you.

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703389004575032893301414842.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

It looks like there's some movement, but the concerns that remain are if the momentum can be maintained since the consumer spending slowed from 3Q09.

How the business inventories shore up will be up to watch as well.

On the construction front, Performance Bonding may begin to freeze up a little as companies try to get thin margin work off their books too.

Did consumer spending slow?

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in six years in the last three months of 2009, expanding at a 5.7% yearly rate over the previous quarter, as businesses drew less from their stockrooms and stepped up purchases of equipment and software. Exports surged and consumers spent more.

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

Hatzius says...................Sluggish Growth for 2010 is expected

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Hatzius

Jan Hatzius (born 1968) is a German economist. He currently is Goldman Sachs′ chief US economist and is responsible for setting the firm's US economic and interest rate outlook. Notable for his bearish forecasts, he was listed atop of 52 Wall Street economists in The Wall Street Journal′s economic-forecast rankings


So what you're saying is Hatzius is being Hatzius; means nothing as a predictor.

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

Sluggish Growth for 2010 is expected...Blue Skies!

And then the prediction is it will get MUCH worse in 2011. This is very dependent however on whether congress decides to increase or decrease punishment on large and small business AND whether the current level of fed spending is maintained or increased

You guys have been wrong all year, esp Stanley with his market predictions, now that the GDP is smoking hot and unemp stabilized, you guys are focusing in 2011. Great for laughs. I guess if your current predictions or past predictions of today tank, you have to make new predictions for future years.

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

Quote

Quote

Quote

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

Well you're right, it's 5.7%! Of course that's still an estimate, but even if it falls to 4.8, 4.0, that's great news, right? Oh wait, you guys want Obama and the US to fail; my bad .

Wait for the second or third "revision" and then get back to us

dont change the fact that 09 had the biggest loss in the since 42 or 3

Your a hoot

Biggest loss in the what? As usual, your dribble makes no sense.

As for 2nd or 3rd revision, as I said, so what if it's 4.8, 4.0, or???, it's awesome for people who want the US to win, AKA: not you. Also, what if it's not adusted at all? What if it is adjusted higher? 5.7 is phenominal even if it is adjusted 20% lower. I'm sorry that Obama and the US is not failing.

you just love being manipulated by the President don't you

I'm reading data, not Obama, so once again your posts are unintelligible.

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

I'm really hoping this is a recovery but I fear it's just the government pumping money into the economy. Unemployment is key. That's where the real recovery is. GDP doesn't put food on people's tables.

Yep, agree. Nice to see the one Republican who doesn't want America to tank to then celebrate being right in some, "ends justify the means" rant.

Une,p is key, but it is also always the lagger, so this is typical. GDP needs to flip before the unemp rate does, that's the downfall of a capitalist nation; need to restore the millionaires before we restore the poor and MC.

The stimulis is largely what we're seeing in this real and great data, does anyone suggest we not stimulate teh economy and wait 10 years for it to pick up 10% a year?

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

Link found on one of your maybe favorite site? The Dem underground?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/shiller-on-depression-scares.html

Do you have a point to make, or more plagiarization?

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

Do you still think the 4th Q 2009 GDP was 5.7% (or somewhere in the vicinity)?

As I tried to bet Mike (Mneal), it will be within 20% of 4.8% either way. I still feel that way.

[Gawain 0]

Quote

Quote

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703389004575032893301414842.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

It looks like there's some movement, but the concerns that remain are if the momentum can be maintained since the consumer spending slowed from 3Q09.

How the business inventories shore up will be up to watch as well.

On the construction front, Performance Bonding may begin to freeze up a little as companies try to get thin margin work off their books too.

Did consumer spending slow?

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in six years in the last three months of 2009, expanding at a 5.7% yearly rate over the previous quarter, as businesses drew less from their stockrooms and stepped up purchases of equipment and software. Exports surged and consumers spent more.

It slowed a bit from 3Q to 4Q:

Quote

After inventories, an increase in consumer spending was the largest contributor to GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending grew at a 2% annual rate, the Commerce Department said. That was down from the third-quarter, when spending grew at a 2.8% rate, boosted by auto sales related to the government's cash-for-clunkers program. Sales of goods besides autos grew at a faster clip than in the third quarter.

So, as I said, the key will be to see if the momentum can be maintained, and if there can be continued growth in durable goods orders.

Consumer spending continued to grow, but it did slow in it's growth. Non-residential construction was down, as was home construction. Exports are up. Business investment seems to be up as well. So let's keep the momentum going.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Belgian_Draft 0]

Quote

Quote

Do you still think the 4th Q 2009 GDP was 5.7% (or somewhere in the vicinity)?

As I tried to bet Mike (Mneal), it will be within 20% of 4.8% either way. I still feel that way.

You are so far off the mark you don't even know why your wrong. 4.8% isn't within 1000% either way. No shit.

HAMMER:
Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays is used as a
kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts adjacent the
object we are trying to hit.