Does the media cause a sway in voting?

[simplyputsi 0]

I can't believe I'm posting in SC, but I want to know what people think.

Do you think that constantly reporting polls and who might be favored to win sways votes. Let me see if I can clarify, or make more sense.

You have polls coming out saying Obama is 10 points ahead, or that Obama is alrady project to have over 300 electoral votes. Do you believe tha a person that was going to vote for McCain would change their vote to Obama because they think now, given poll data, that he is a shoe in and they would rather vote for the winner than someone that might lose?

People do this all the time. You might like a sports team and want to route for them, but because someone somewhere says they are going to lose against some other team you decide to root for the other team. People like to vote, root, whatever, for the winning team.

There isn't anything that you can really do about it. The media is going to report, but it makes you wonder who is changing their mind just because.

Skymama's #2 stalker -

[nerdgirl 0]

Yes, polls and media watched can affect decisions and decisions to vote or not to vote.

Election day reporting on polling results from the East Coast has been shown to influence West Coast, Hawaii, and Alaska voting; as results are being posted/reported from the East Coast are announced, voters don’t go to vote or demonstrate a ‘band-wagon’ effect.

Pre-election day polls that are reported have also been shown to affect outcomes.

Altho' generally not a media-reported phenomena, order of names on a ballot can affect outcome.

The presence or absence of FOX cable news in media market can affect voting.

Most are small (<1-2%) but statistically significant. Whether that is significant in determining the outcomes of races varies by political race.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[billvon 2,396]

>do you believe tha a person that was going to vote for McCain would change their
>vote to Obama because they think now, given poll data, that he is a shoe in and
>they would rather vote for the winner than someone that might lose?

Yes, and the opposite happens as well. "Gee, I wasn't going to vote because it looked like McCain is a shoe-in. But now that he's behind, I gotta get out there and vote so that Obama guy doesn't win!"

[chaoskitty 0]

I think that until we do away with the electoral college and go with the popular vote, it doesn't really matter.
But of course, I'm going to vote. The polls on TV don't influence me, but I think the media coverage of the candidates does.

[kallend 1,623]

I just don't see the point in voting for someone because they're ahead in the polls. Is this some kind of ovine mentality?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[PeregrineFalcon 0]

I think what happens much more is that some people don't bother to vote. I can easily see Republicans in California or Democrats in Oklahoma not bothering to vote because they feel there's no point. I can't see a poll changing a person's mind in who they would vote for, but I can see someone looking at the polls and thinking that they won't bother to show up to vote at all.

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

Yes, polls and media watched can affect decisions and decisions to vote or not to vote.

Election day reporting on polling results from the East Coast has been shown to influence West Coast, Hawaii, and Alaska voting; as results are being posted/reported from the East Coast are announced, voters don’t go to vote or demonstrate a ‘band-wagon’ effect.

There are a lot of different ways the polling can affect the voting body, but when they're all combined, is it still statistically valid?

Some don't show because their candidate is behind. Some don't because their candidate is ahead.

---
what bothers me more about polling is how few people understand how to read the significance of the results. When the deviation is +- 4 pts (or even higher), a 3 point lead is meaningless. When one poll talks about likely voters versus registered voters, that can mean a vote, esp if the polling is done for a campaign.

[PLFXpert 0]

You have two questions and the latter is what has mostly been addressed.

To the former ("Does the media cause a sway in voting?"): YES!

To the latter ("Do you think that constantly reporting polls...?"): A bit, but not nearly as much as the former in general.

Paint me in a corner, but my color comes back.

[airdvr 197]

Does a fat dog waddle? Does a wooden horse have a hickory dick?

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[akarunway 1]

Quote

I can't believe I'm posting in SC, but I want to know what people think.

Do you think that constantly reporting polls and who might be favored to win sways votes. Let me see if I can clarify, or make more sense.

You have polls coming out saying Obama is 10 points ahead, or that Obama is alrady project to have over 300 electoral votes. Do you believe tha a person that was going to vote for McCain would change their vote to Obama because they think now, given poll data, that he is a shoe in and they would rather vote for the winner than someone that might lose?

People do this all the time. You might like a sports team and want to route for them, but because someone somewhere says they are going to lose against some other team you decide to root for the other team. People like to vote, root, whatever, for the winning team.

There isn't anything that you can really do about it. The media is going to report, but it makes you wonder who is changing their mind just because.

Donno. I usually root for Underdog. BUT. I'm not in this one

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.