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mirage62

Gas below $1.99 is NO GOOD

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I'm not kidding, the prices need to stay high so that we will keep working on ways to get us off oil. Since the prices went up all sorts of good things are being talked about and the car makers are starting on some interesting idea's. If the prices fall I'm afraid we will go right back to our old ways. I know, I know...we'll run out of gas soon and then......

Did anyone read the comment by (I believe) the CEO of GM? "China will be the first hydrogen market"

Bill Vonn should use his power to keep gas prices higher!!!
Kevin Keenan is my hero, a double FUP, he does so much with so little

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If the prices are high due to supply and demand, then good. If the prices are low due to supply and demand, also good.

The desire to artificially play the market to force some specific outcome is a bit arrogant.

I know, I know ..... all the chicken littles are so much smarter than everyone else and deserve to be preachy and arrogant.

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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I for one want them as low as they can get. Why, I'm cheap! ;) Gas prices have little if any effect on USA's attraction for SUVs.

I do have one question ... why? If the AK trans pipeline is down - war in the middle east - why aren't prices soaring. Before if anyone in the ME farted, gas prices went up. Why not now?

I have my ideas but I'd like to hear others input (sorry if I'm hijacking this thread) Yay, cheap gas!

steveOrino

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> If the prices are high due to supply and demand, then good.
>If the prices are low due to supply and demand, also good.

Supply WILL drop off and prices WILL rise in the long term; there's no way around that. If that happens slowly = good. (New technologies, adaptation, market forces creating new solutions.) If that happens rapidly = bad. (Market crashes, destruction of economies, no money to pursue new technologies.)

>The desire to artificially play the market to force some specific outcome
>is a bit arrogant.

We do it all the time. We outlaw monopolies, require companies to not abuse employees, have food health standards etc even when these result in 'artificially' higher prices. A truly free market would be completely dysfunctional; some regulation is needed to keep competitive forces viable.

>all the chicken littles are so much smarter than everyone else and
>deserve to be preachy and arrogant.

That's a pretty high horse you got for yourself! What's the view like way up there?

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Gas didn't drop 90 cents last fall. I find this very interesting especially in light of the break down of the AK pipeline.

I suspect Big Oil knows this is an election year and a bunch of democrats winning republican seats in congress in a few weeks would not do them any good. Therefore, they are reducing the price to put a favorable spin on the economy in hopes to keep republican seats and majority

I say this as a Republican (actually, I'm more a libertarian than anything, but I don't vote on those who can't get elected.:S)

steveOrino

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My family parked their SUV with the gas prices at $3 and was driving a Camery instead because they couldn't justify a $75 fill up, now with Gas back near $2 the SUV is back out on the roads driving around town. Gas prices do affect consumer demand for SUV's, SUV sales were near their lowest ever this summer. A used SUV is hardly able to be sold even in great shape due to its gas usage.
Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

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My family parked their SUV with the gas prices at $3 and was driving a Camery instead because they couldn't justify a $75 fill up, now with Gas back near $2 the SUV is back out on the roads driving around town. Gas prices do affect consumer demand for SUV's, SUV sales were near their lowest ever this summer. A used SUV is hardly able to be sold even in great shape due to its gas usage.


__________________________________


Just for contrast...
Here in West Texas (the oil patch) The local Cadillac dealer, cannot keep-up with the demand for Escalades. The local Hummer dealer is selling-out and so-on, with other 'gas guzzling' SUV's. Locally, gas prices for un-leaded regular is about 10 - 15 cents above natl. average. The search for more oil, has greatly increased in this part of the country. There's jobs galore in the oil-field, mostly rig hands. In the late 70's - early 80's, we had a 'boom' where the shallow wells were drilled. Now, the oil companies are going back in and drilling deep wells, Also, while prices of gasoline were soaring to $2.99 a gallon, the SUV's never slowed-down. Noone parked them and there was also an increase in the sales of 'big' pick-up trucks, mostly diesel. The 'guage' of prosperity here is, higher prices for a barrel of crude... the economy is up. I've heard some folks say, they would like to see the price of gas 'stay' above $3.00 per gallon... that means, folks are working in this part of the country.


Chuck

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My family parked their SUV with the gas prices at $3 and was driving a Camery instead because they couldn't justify a $75 fill up, now with Gas back near $2 the SUV is back out on the roads driving around town. Gas prices do affect consumer demand for SUV's, SUV sales were near their lowest ever this summer. A used SUV is hardly able to be sold even in great shape due to its gas usage.



I guess I meant gas prices never stopped me from buying or driving SUVs. ;)

steveOrino

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I have my ideas but I'd like to hear others input (sorry if I'm hijacking this thread) Yay, cheap gas!



It couldn't be.... ELECTION TIME.... now could it:P



/incredulous sarcasm/ NO NO NO... Couldn't be! Piffle! /sarcasm/ :D

I miss Lee.
And JP.
And Chris. And...

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If the prices are high due to supply and demand, then good. If the prices are low due to supply and demand, also good.

The desire to artificially play the market to force some specific outcome is a bit arrogant.

I know, I know ..... all the chicken littles are so much smarter than everyone else and deserve to be preachy and arrogant.



History shows the chicken littles to be right.

Look at every natural resource that gets extinguished - fisheries in particular. The price of swordfish is based on the cost of catch, not the value of the resource. So now we have very little swordfish left - the life cycle of a big fish is too slow. Not as slow as oil formation, but slow nonetheless.

Put it this way - can you name any resource where market pricing lead us to an equilibrium? There may be a handful, ones where the cycle for reproduction is an annual. But by and large, we get too good at extraction and we outpace the supply handily.

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This guys seems to know>
Analyst predicts plunge in gas prices
By Kevin G. Hall

McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil could mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to lows not seen since the late 1990s — perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon.

"All the hurricane flags are flying" in oil markets, said Philip Verleger, a noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years ago in warning that oil prices would soar. Now, he says, they appear to be poised for a dramatic plunge.

Crude-oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent, from their July 14 peak of $78.40. After falling seven straight days, they rose slightly Wednesday in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, to $63.97, partly in reaction to a government report showing fuel inventories a bit lower than expected. But the overall price drop is expected to continue, and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead.

Here's why:

For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because the world's oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand, particularly from China and India. Spare oil-production capacity grew so tight that market players feared that any disruption to oil production could create shortages.

Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon that might spread to oil-producing neighbors, and the prospect that hurricanes might topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up the future price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery, and companies that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of total trading. Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and they're seeking profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in recent years, according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in the future bid up the price of oil.

That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as cushions against supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now inventories of oil are approaching 1990 levels.

But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil prices are ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing. The hurricane season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. peak summer driving season is over, so gasoline demand is falling.

With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began sliding. With oil inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are expected to cut production. As refiners cut production, oil companies increasingly risk getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already anecdotal evidence of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil.




All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on oil.

"If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm winter like we had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of oil," said Gary Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an energy hedge fund. "I think there is still a lot of risk in the market."

As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59, according to the AAA motor club. In the Seattle area, prices per gallon have fallen to $2.856 currently from $3.071 a month ago, a decline of 7 percent, according to AAA.

Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will get worse and run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts, Verleger said, it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a barrel, at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as $1.15 per gallon.

Other experts won't guess at a floor price, but they agree that a race to the bottom could break out.

"The market may test levels here that are too low to be sustained," said Clay Seigle, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consultancy in Boston.

On Monday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC hinted that if prices fall precipitously, OPEC members would cut production to lift them. But that would take time.

"That takes six to nine months. If we don't have a really cold winter here [creating a demand for oil], prices will fall. Literally, you don't know where the floor is," Verleger said. "In a market like this, if things start falling ... prices could take you back to the 1999 levels. It has nothing to do with production."
I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

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I for one want them as low as they can get. Why, I'm cheap! ;) Gas prices have little if any effect on USA's attraction for SUVs.

I do have one question ... why? If the AK trans pipeline is down - war in the middle east - why aren't prices soaring. Before if anyone in the ME farted, gas prices went up. Why not now?

I have my ideas but I'd like to hear others input (sorry if I'm hijacking this thread) Yay, cheap gas!



The high gas prices didn't weaken the SUV market significantly.

Prices are down right now because most of the refineries are in a surplus supply mode (supply is strong in other words).
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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Gas didn't drop 90 cents last fall. I find this very interesting especially in light of the break down of the AK pipeline.

I suspect Big Oil knows this is an election year and a bunch of democrats winning republican seats in congress in a few weeks would not do them any good. Therefore, they are reducing the price to put a favorable spin on the economy in hopes to keep republican seats and majority

I say this as a Republican (actually, I'm more a libertarian than anything, but I don't vote on those who can't get elected.:S)



Ding!Ding!Ding!!!! We have a winner folks:P

I have been thinking the same thing for a while now as well. Also BIG OIL may see this as the time to try and weed out some of the compition from alternative fuels which are just now starting to make real strides in the marketplace. Remember there are only a very few oil companies that controle the market.

While I would like $1.25 gas again it isn't practical and I really don't think it would be in anybodies best interest.

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Gas didn't drop 90 cents last fall. I find this very interesting especially in light of the break down of the AK pipeline.

I suspect Big Oil knows this is an election year and a bunch of democrats winning republican seats in congress in a few weeks would not do them any good. Therefore, they are reducing the price to put a favorable spin on the economy in hopes to keep republican seats and majority

I say this as a Republican (actually, I'm more a libertarian than anything, but I don't vote on those who can't get elected.:S)



Ding!Ding!Ding!!!! We have a winner folks:P

I have been thinking the same thing for a while now as well. Also BIG OIL may see this as the time to try and weed out some of the compition from alternative fuels which are just now starting to make real strides in the marketplace. Remember there are only a very few oil companies that controle the market.

While I would like $1.25 gas again it isn't practical and I really don't think it would be in anybodies best interest.



Why do people choose to believe conspiracies, when market fundamentals are much more compelling?

Crude prices are currently $60/barrel, down from the July high of $78.50. With the oil companies currently holding/processing product bought at significantly higher prices, they are taking a major hit from these falling prices. Most energy industry analysts are telling the same story. They're much more interested in correctly forecasting future prices than who controls Congress.

Do people think all the rival oil companies are colluding, to alter the outcome of the Fall election? At what cost?

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around $2.08/gallon is common here in Central Ohio. B|

Some news sources are now running stories about how low gas prices will increase inflation! They just have to find some way to portray it as bad news for Bush, whether prices go up or down.
People are sick and tired of being told that ordinary and decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am

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Why do people choose to believe conspiracies, when market fundamentals are much more compelling?



for one thing, it's more entertaining and people get to freak out

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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Why do people choose to believe conspiracies, when market fundamentals are much more compelling?
...
Do people think all the rival oil companies are colluding, to alter the outcome of the Fall election? At what cost?



There aren't very many oil companies left, so it has become all too plausible that they could collude. The incentive is very clear as well. There is a significant element in Congress to remove billions of dollars in free money, or to tax billions of dollars in the name of windfall profits. I never saw gas prices drop as quickly as they did when Congress had those discussions. Typically prices spike immedately on a bad event, then slowly trickle back.

A Democratic Congress is certainly a big threat to them. Merely a Democratic House, which is more likely than the Senate, probably isn't that great a risk.

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There aren't very many oil companies left, so it has become all too plausible that they could collude. The incentive is very clear as well. There is a significant element in Congress to remove billions of dollars in free money, or to tax billions of dollars in the name of windfall profits. I never saw gas prices drop as quickly as they did when Congress had those discussions. Typically prices spike immedately on a bad event, then slowly trickle back.


In the last two months crude prices have dropped almost 25 percent, which means oil company sales have dropped by the same amount, which means they are taking a big hit. Are Exxon, Shell et al really gonna tank the market and slash their earnings for a mid-term election?

When Congress began those (idiotic) talks about "windfall profits" taxes, the national average price for gasoline was $2.27/gal. - about 80 cents off the Katrina highs, and the decline was pretty fast. Prices dropped another 15 cents before heading back up.

What you said (above) is compelling... even if it's contrary to what actually occurred. ;)

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I use the same amount of gas per week no matter what the price, so keep it low. Now if I got a raise every time they raise gas prices, I wouldn't give a shit. But since that doesn't happen, I'm tired of taking it in the ass to line some fucking oil execs pockets.


I may be getting old but I got to see all the cool bands.

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Has anyone in the US actually considered cars that get more than single figure mpgs?

My car does a healthy 50 to the gallon and sub 10 to 60. Yet I drove a car in Vegas last year that got 5.7mpg and drove like a milk float....


------
Two of the three voices in my head agree with you. It might actually be unanimous but voice three only speaks Welsh.

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I drove a car in Vegas last year that got 5.7mpg and drove like a milk float....



What kind of car was that?

And no :S not a SINGLE "anyone in the US" has considered cars that get more than 9 mpg? :S

my car get 75 hectare-seconds to the decalitre - and that's how I like it

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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