There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998

[ryoder 1,381]

18 minutes ago, murps2000 said:

https://www.outtherecolorado.com/news/analysis-reveals-all-20-of-colorados-20-largest-wildfires-have-happened-in-last-20-years/article_08a009c4-f1f1-11ea-a77e-2f7060b2f6a5.html

Dammit Colorado, get your forest management act together.

Hell, that article is out-of-date now. The Cameron Peak Fire is now the largest in state history. I took this photo a couple hours ago along 36 between Denver and Boulder, thinking it was the Cameron fire. Then I discovered today there is a whole new fire North of Boulder (near Jamestown) called the Calwood Fire. I identified a fire observation plane circling it on flightradar24.com.

Edited October 17, 2020 by ryoder

[murps2000 86]

You guys in Colorado should take some advice from people who live where it rains all year and manage your forests better.

[kallend 1,621]

Zeta is the 27th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, tying a record set in 2005 for named storms, according to the National Weather Service.  It is also the earliest 27th named storm, by a month.

[JoeWeber 2,294]

On 10/25/2020 at 7:57 PM, kallend said:

Zeta is the 27th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, tying a record set in 2005 for named storms, according to the National Weather Service.  It is also the earliest 27th named storm, by a month.

29 is now numbered. Unintended consequences.

[billvon 2,384]

8 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

29 is now numbered. Unintended consequences.

Next year there will "only" be 27 and some denier will post here that "there's only one problem with global warming - the number of storms is going DOWN!"

[kallend 1,621]

5 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

29 is now numbered. Unintended consequences.

Eta:
https://myfox8.com/weather-stories/tropical-storm-eta-forms-in-caribbean-ties-record-for-most-names-storms-in-single-season/

[Phil1111 908]

A super typhoon barreled into the southern part of the Philippines' main island of Luzon on Sunday, bringing "catastrophic" violent winds and intense rain with two landfalls so far, the country's weather bureau said.

Typhoon Goni is the strongest storm recorded anywhere in the world so far this year, and ahead of its landfall in the Philippines was gaining further strength with 225 kph (140 miles per hour) sustained winds and gusts of up to 310 kph (190 mph).

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Ya know, if they didn't use anemometers, the wind wouldn't blow so hard.

 

 

[kallend 1,621]

Eta is now a Cat 4:
 

 

 

[wmw999 2,116]

Don’t worry, it’s irrelevant. Won’t hit central Pennsylvania. 
Wendy P. 

[kallend 1,621]

Eta may hit Cat 5 before it makes landfall.

"Hurricane season" still has 27 days to go.  I wonder if we'll get to Iota.

[billvon 2,384]

So now we've got Iota.  Is Kappa next?

[kallend 1,621]

Brenthutch seems to have gone very quiet.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-11-16-hurricane-iota-forecast-landfall-central-america

Hurricane Iota Strengthens Into First Category 5 of 2020 Hurricane Season

 

14 days to go.

Edited November 16, 2020 by kallend

[Phil1111 908]

4 hours ago, kallend said:

Brenthutch seems to have gone very quiet.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-11-16-hurricane-iota-forecast-landfall-central-america

Hurricane Iota Strengthens Into First Category 5 of 2020 Hurricane Season

 

14 days to go.

Two hurricanes in three weeks in the same area, one a cat 5. No power, washed out roads and covid.

[brenthutch 383]

5 hours ago, kallend said:

Brenthutch seems to have gone very quiet.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-11-16-hurricane-iota-forecast-landfall-central-america

Hurricane Iota Strengthens Into First Category 5 of 2020 Hurricane Season

 

14 days to go.

I’ve already issued a mia culpa, for this years hurricane season, two months ago.  If it is global warming and not a result of this year’s La Niña, we should expect next year to be even worse.  If it is, I will have been wrong, if it isn’t I will have been vindicated.  It sure doesn’t look like a trend.

 

Edited November 16, 2020 by brenthutch

[billvon 2,384]

25 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I’ve already issued a mia culpa, for this years hurricane season, two months ago.  If it is global warming and not a result of this year’s La Niña, we should expect next year to be even worse.

That doesn't follow at all.  Not every year is warmer than the year preceding it.  That is just true ON AVERAGE.

[brenthutch 383]

17 minutes ago, billvon said:

That doesn't follow at all.  Not every year is warmer than the year preceding it.  That is just true ON AVERAGE.

So if warming = more and stronger tropical storms, we should see an increase ON AVERAGE.

Given the increase in tropical cyclones was a regional phenomenon and not global one I’m going to have to chalk this season up to “weather” and not “climate”.

Edited November 16, 2020 by brenthutch

[kallend 1,621]

29 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

So if warming = more and stronger tropical storms, we should see an increase ON AVERAGE.

Given the increase in tropical cyclones was a regional phenomenon and not global one I’m going to have to chalk this season up to “weather” and not “climate”.

The weasel is strong with this one.

[Phil1111 908]

12 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

So if warming = more and stronger tropical storms, we should see an increase ON AVERAGE.

Sept 2020, NOOA, GFDL

"There is increasing evidence from modeling studies at GFDL/NOAA and the UK Met Office/Hadley Centre (UKMO) that the increase in tropical storm frequency in the Atlantic basin since the 1970s has been at least partly driven by decreases in aerosols from human activity and volcanic forcing.  Natural variability may also have contributed to recent changes.  The recent GFDL and UKMO studies do not imply that the increase in Atlantic tropical storm frequency since the 1970s will continue into the future:   these same models project future decreases in Atlantic tropical storm frequency in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations."

Observed records of Atlantic hurricane activity show some correlation, on multi-year time-scales, between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) — see for example Fig. 3 on this EPA Climate Indicators site. PDI is an aggregate measure of Atlantic hurricane activity, combining frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes in a single index. Both Atlantic SSTs and PDI have risen sharply since the 1970s, and there is some evidence that PDI levels in recent years are higher than in the previous active Atlantic hurricane era in the 1950s and 60s."

 

[brenthutch 383]

4 hours ago, kallend said:

The weasel is strong with this one.

Question for the moderators

Would it be acceptable for me to respond with something like “the douchebagery is strong with this one” or do PAs only go in one direction?  The posters response adds nothing to the conversation, it is not funny, it is not even slightly clever.  I would call his retort sophomoric, but that would be an insult to sophomores.  Please advise.

[JoeWeber 2,294]

5 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I’ve already issued a mia culpa, for this years hurricane season, two months ago.  If it is global warming and not a result of this year’s La Niña, we should expect next year to be even worse.  If it is, I will have been wrong, if it isn’t I will have been vindicated.  It sure doesn’t look like a trend.

 

I don't believe that for one iota.

[Phil1111 908]

Storm Guide 2020: Insurance rates are on the rise

"The average homeowners’ premium in the U.S. is $1,211, insure.com reports that the average Florida premium is $3,575."

If Florida can afford trump, they can afford hurricanes and home insurance.

[billvon 2,384]

6 hours ago, brenthutch said:

So if warming = more and stronger tropical storms, we should see an increase ON AVERAGE.

Correct.  And we have indeed seen tropical storms become stronger.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/climate/climate-changes-hurricane-intensity.html

[brenthutch 383]

6 hours ago, billvon said:

Correct.  And we have indeed seen tropical storms become stronger.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/climate/climate-changes-hurricane-intensity.html

I don’t subscribe to crap like the NYT.  Cut and paste if you want me respond.

BTW still waiting for your response regarding forum rules.

[kallend 1,621]

7 hours ago, billvon said:

Correct.  And we have indeed seen tropical storms become stronger.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/climate/climate-changes-hurricane-intensity.html

Iota is the strongest Atlantic storm on record for mid November.

And the season still isn't over.