JoeyRamone 0 #1 June 24, 2005 Not good news... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050624/hl_nm/health_flu_dc_2 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Half a million Americans could die and more than 2 million could end up in the hospital with serious complications if an even moderately severe strain of a pandemic flu hits, a report predicted on Friday. But the United States only has 965,256 staffed hospital beds, said the report from the Trust for America's Health. The non-profit group's state-by-state analysis adds to a growing clamor of voices contending that the United States is not prepared for a large outbreak of disease, whether natural or brought on by war or terrorism. "This is not a drill. This is not a planning exercise. This is for real," said the Trust's executive director, Shelley Hearne, in a statement. In an average year, influenza kills an estimated 36,000 Americans and puts 200,000 into the hospital. A more serious strain strikes every few years and a so-called pandemic strain emerges once every 27 years, on average. The more virulent strains sweep around the world within months. Pandemics hit in 1918 -- killing up to 40 million people globally -- 1957 and 1968. Health experts all say the world is overdue for another and fear the avian flu in Asia may be it. The World Health Organization says an H5N1 avian flu pandemic could kill up to 7.4 million people globally, because people lack immunity to it. Avian flu has not yet acquired the ability to pass easily from person to person, but would spread rapidly if it does, experts say. PANDEMIC RISKS But even another strain of flu could wreak havoc if it has pandemic characteristics, according to the report. "The U.S. has not adequately planned for the disruption a flu pandemic could cause to the economy, daily life, food and supply distributions, or homeland security," the Trust's report reads. "The U.S. lags in pandemic preparations compared to Great Britain and Canada based on an examination of leadership, vaccine development, vaccine and antiviral planning, health care system surge capacity planning, coordination between public and private sectors, and emergency communications planning." Health officials are aware of the warnings and say they are developing a plan. The heads of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health and Health and Human Services Department are regularly called to hearings before Congress on the issue. The Trust said more could be done to prepare now, including setting up plans to track an outbreak, stockpile antiviral drugs and other medical supplies and set up communications. The study found that the United States has stockpiled 2.3 million courses of the best anti-influenza drug, oseltamivir, marketed by Gilead Sciences and Roche under the brand name Tamiflu. It has placed orders for 3 million more courses of the drug, which does not cure influenza but can prevent infection if taken early enough and can reduce its severity. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lawrocket 3 #2 June 24, 2005 It seems to me that most of these deaths would be from the elderly and the young, as well as those with immune system dysfunction. There would be a lot of sick days, but I cannot see it being too awful bad to the economy of homeland security. It seems like the flu has greater effects in the rest of the world. Places where sanitation and health care not well developed would tend to do the worst. The 1968 flu killed about a million worldwide. What do I think would be a pretty good way to start planning for this? I think a good step would be to implement some legislative protections against lawsuits for companies that make vaccines. WHen you're in a pandemic, and you start immunizing loads of people, there will be more adverse reactions. As it is, drug companies don't want that risk. I wouldn't, either. My wife is hotter than your wife. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricTheRed 0 #3 June 24, 2005 Actually, while that's true for established strains, there is little way to tell about newly emergent strains. WHEN there is a pandemic, it will affect nearly everyone as there will be little immunity to the disease. There will likely be many more deaths than this predicts as once the hospitals fill up with the worst cases, many more will receive almost no care. This is the one thing that actually scares me more than our politicians. and I don't really scare that easily. i have found thishttp://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html to be a pretty good site. It tends to be a bit alarmist, but the links and info are generally acccurate.illegible usually Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lawrocket 3 #4 June 24, 2005 The original article poste lists a death rate of a little over 1/500 for the US, and about 1/150 requiring hospitalization. Of course, we don't have that many hospital beds, but if the pandemic runs over the course of a few months it should be manageable in the US. The rest of the world is what concerns me. If you remember a couple of years ago, a heat wave killed an estimated 10,000 in France alone. Recall that much of the blame was pinned on France's health care system and government, when vacations were taken by such a larger percentage of the populace in August, including government ministers and physicians. Will French doctors come off of vacations if this occurs during their vacaton times? Will France allow a greater than 35 hour work week? There are plenty of policy decisions to be made aside from the purely health science standpoint. My wife is hotter than your wife. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricTheRed 0 #5 June 24, 2005 It also make the assumption that all the existing beds are available for flu cases, so while the epidemic is ongoing try to not break a leg/have a heart attack/need dialysis. Once the Dr's get sick and require care - the whole system just might fail. It's actually pretty easy to imagine us stacking bodies in cargo containers, just like they had to do in France. We might dodge this, with luck. Hell, we might even get REALLY lucky and have it hit China hard first and kill off about 25% of their labor pool and reset the economic development clock back by 30 years or so. Pretty tragic way to get lucky though.illegible usually Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SpeedRacer 1 #6 June 24, 2005 QuoteHell, we might even get REALLY lucky and have it hit China hard first and kill off about 25% of their labor pool and reset the economic development clock back by 30 years or so. Pretty tragic way to get lucky though. ...i must have missed the part about how or why this would be lucky for us??? just because the Chinese would be getting the flu doesn't mean that we'd have a less chance of getting it. quite the reverse actually. Speed Racer -------------------------------------------------- Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wmw999 2,116 #7 June 24, 2005 Success that you get because of someone else's misfortune isn't as sweet as the success you earn by simply being better. Wendy W.There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricTheRed 0 #8 June 24, 2005 It was really meant as sarcasm, sorry it didn't come through that way. Overall, as has been pointed out, the US would likely fare better due to: Population density Available medical resources Education of the general population Sanitation practices currently in place We will still be hit, and hit very hard when a pandemic occurs, it's just likely that proportionately fewer Amercans will die. Due in large part to our existing infrastructure and privately held wealth, the US would also be better able to recover. Global estimates of death range from 100 Million to 1-2 billion, depending on who's doing the counting. http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/2004/12/trying-to-count-future-flu-deaths.html That's a lot of people. When that many people die, entire societies are very prone to collapse.illegible usually Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jakee 1,254 #9 June 24, 2005 QuoteHell, we might even get REALLY lucky and have it hit China hard first and kill off about 25% of their labor pool and reset the economic development clock back by 30 years or so. Pretty tragic way to get lucky though. It almost certainly will come from China, thats where the current strain of bird flu is making the jump to humans at the moment, its only a matter of time before a strain becomes able to transmit from bird to person, then from person to person. Then a LOT of people will be seriously fucked. What is extremely worrying is the way the Chinese officials are working very hard to cover up all human infections and disguise the scale of the coming crisis. If it involved bio weapons the UN could demand entry, this is a far more immediate threat on a huge scale and the WHO can't do a damn thing.Do you want to have an ideagasm? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nathaniel 0 #10 June 25, 2005 Quote It seems to me that most of these deaths would be from the elderly and the young, as well as those with immune system dysfunction. There would be a lot of sick days, but I cannot see it being too awful bad to the economy of homeland security. Sick days could be an enormous drain on the economy. I read a recent article that drew a startlingly obvious conclusion: the main reason that the vast majority of people all work M-F 9-5, and take the weekends off, is that there are huge network effects between workers. The loss caused by one employee's absence is magnified by diminished efficiency among his/her colleagues. Healthy workers might still take days off to care for their elders and their young. Not to mention increased expenditures on healthcare & healthcare products, psychological effects like depression, anxiety, &c. Even the not-so-bad pandemic scenarios are pretty ugly, imo.My advice is to do what your parents did; get a job, sir. The bums will always lose. Do you hear me, Lebowski? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricTheRed 0 #11 August 2, 2005 I thought this thread was due for a bump http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-08-02-voa32.cfm Hopefully, China isn't lying to the WHO again. http://www.the-scientist.com/news/20050802/01 Hard to know since they have closed all research facilities affiliated with 'outsiders' and started to jail journalists that try to report on the disease.illegible usually Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
newsstand 0 #12 October 5, 2005 Time to bump again. http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-10-04-bush-avianflu_x.htm What the hell is he thinking? What does the WHO say? http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20051004&articleId=1040 "DEATH RATE ESTIMATES Meanwhile, the World Health Organization on Friday sought to "revise alarming predictions" that an influenza pandemic could result in as many as 150 million deaths worldwide, a statistic cited by David Nabarro, the recently named United Nations coordinator for avian and human influenza. WHO influenza spokesperson Dick Thompson did not call the 150 million statistic incorrect but said that an estimate of 7.4 million deaths is more realistic. "We're not going to know how lethal the next pandemic is going to be until the pandemic begins," he said, adding, "You could pick almost any number." WHO said the most likely scenario is a death toll of two million to 7.4 million people (Ross, AP/Las Vegas Sun, 9/30)." "Truth is tough. It will not break, like a bubble, at a touch; nay, you may kick it about all day like a football, and it will be round and full at evening." -- Oliver Wendell Holmes Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricTheRed 0 #13 October 5, 2005 Using current estimates of 22% infected, and 50% fatality rate, there would be expected to be 35,681,948 deaths in the US from the flu alone. That does not take into account the potential for added deaths from lack of access to medical care (overloaded hospitals) and social violence. If it hits, we'd better call out the National Guard. not for quarantine but for preserving public order. What happened in NO could happen in nearly any major US city if all the police are gone tending to other duties. "Bring out your dead...Bring out your dead..."illegible usually Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StreetScooby 5 #14 October 5, 2005 This from today's NYTimes: Deadly 1918 Epidemic Linked to Bird Flu, Scientists Say http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/health/05cnd-flu.html?hp&ex=1128571200&en=054b7bbcd1082219&ei=5094&partner=homepage They've managed to replicate the virus from tissue samples preserved by the army, and a mass grave from a village in Alaska. The virus infected tissue deep in the lungs that aren't usually prone to infection. Also, it targeted healthy young people more so than old.We are all engines of karma Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chuteless 1 #15 October 5, 2005 CNN said last night it could kill a million....I guess CNN must have since found a vacine. They should get one for smallpox....it will be here about 2009 to 2012.....in big numbers Bill Cole Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lindsey 0 #16 October 5, 2005 For y'all who are intrigued by infectious disease, you should read "The Coming Plague" by Laurie Garrett. Just thought I'd share.... linz-- A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StreetScooby 5 #17 October 5, 2005 Quote For y'all... Where are you from? The correct spelling is ya'll. FYI BTW - just read book reviews on Amazon.com. They're all 5 stars for "The Coming Plague". Thanks for the suggestion!We are all engines of karma Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lindsey 0 #18 October 5, 2005 QuoteQuote For y'all... Where are you from? The correct spelling is ya'll. FYI Grammar lesson...It's y'all....variant of or contraction of you all. Replace the "ou" in you with an apostrophe, and you have y'all. Even in Arkansas we know this... Y'all get on with your day now....nothing to see here...lol. Peace~ linz-- A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 2,380 #19 October 5, 2005 >Grammar lesson...It's y'all.... He was talking about "ya'll" which is the contraction for "yam pill" which is a common southeastern-upper-fringe-antimennonite saying that means "something that makes you fart." Just because y'all use one contraction doesn't mean some people don't like to eat ya'll! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StreetScooby 5 #20 October 5, 2005 Quote Grammar lesson... In Arkansas? It sounds like you haven't fully embraced your culture yet. After years of very expensive and very intensive therapy I managed to fully embrace my culture. Have too much money in it now to go back We are all engines of karma Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StreetScooby 5 #21 October 5, 2005 Quote ...people don't like to eat ya'll! Actually, my forefathers were into pigs feet We are all engines of karma Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lindsey 0 #22 October 5, 2005 QuoteQuote Grammar lesson... In Arkansas? It sounds like you haven't fully embraced your culture yet. After years of very expensive and very intensive therapy I managed to fully embrace my culture. Have too much money in it now to go back There is still an education system in place here.... And for those of us who choose to take full advantage of it, it's not as shabby as some might lead you to believe. I have only embraced some elements of my culture...lol. I like my teeth. linz-- A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lindsey 0 #23 October 5, 2005 Quote>Grammar lesson...It's y'all.... He was talking about "ya'll" which is the contraction for "yam pill" which is a common southeastern-upper-fringe-antimennonite saying that means "something that makes you fart." Just because y'all use one contraction doesn't mean some people don't like to eat ya'll! BWAHAHAHA!!! Thanks Is ya'll good????-- A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
newsstand 0 #24 October 5, 2005 QuoteUsing current estimates of 22% infected, and 50% fatality rate, there would be expected to be 35,681,948 deaths in the US from the flu alone. That does not take into account the potential for added deaths from lack of access to medical care (overloaded hospitals) and social violence. Well apparently WHO disagrees with you. I do not mean to downplay the potential seriousness of this but it is currently in "what if" category. Remember SARS was going to be a pandemic too. QuoteIf it hits, we'd better call out the National Guard. not for quarantine but for preserving public order. What happened in NO could happen in nearly any major US city if all the police are gone tending to other duties. Apparently "...what happend in NO..." didn't. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4292114.stm "Truth is tough. It will not break, like a bubble, at a touch; nay, you may kick it about all day like a football, and it will be round and full at evening." -- Oliver Wendell Holmes Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #25 October 5, 2005 QuoteThey should get one for smallpox....it will be here about 2009 to 2012.....in big numbers Bill Cole Are you now hedging on your certain prediction that Bush will be the last President? He leaves office in January of 2009. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
