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SpeedRacer

A question for the pro-Iraq-war people.

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The same way we got out of Japan.

Wait, we're still there.

We'll be there until their economy and government is on its feet. That'll take a good while, but I feel like it won't be as bad as its been as time goes on. I only hope I'm not proven wrong.[:/]
--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

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>Of course there's a plan.

And it's a secret. It will, no doubt, work as well as our last secret plan to get out of a war.

One of the advantages of a secret, unannounced plan is that you can change it until you announce it. Hence "the war to rid Hussein of WMD's" can become "the war to bring peace to Iraq", which then becomes "the war to stop terrorism" which then becomes "the war to suck all terrorism into Iraq." Perhaps within a year it will become "the war to stop the Iraqi civil war" which may become "the war to eradicate the evil Shi'a terrorists" (or Sunni, take your pick.) For this to work, though, we have to stop declaring victory so often; people become confused when "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" is followed by ever-larger battles.

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How the f*&k do we get out??

What is our exit strategy? How do you visualize the conclusion of this Iraq mess?



I'm not a pro war person but since everyone else is just chucking & jiving (even those that are young enough to enlist:o)

Our exit stratergy is is on schedual as planed.:o:)B|

The coalition met the timetable for turning over control of the country toa interim Iragi gov't.

The next benchmark will be the election on Jan 30 2005 for the Iraqi's to elect their own leaders.

After that when the coalition determines the elected Iraqi Gov't is in control and should be able to protect themselves the coalition will leave.

You know kind of like VN & Korea

Mission accomplished!!!! WAG prior to mid term elections.:|

41

R.I.P.

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The problem is our presence there is the motivation for the insurgency itself. So we can put more troops in to try to fight the insurgency, but when will we pull troops out? If we start pulling them out, we won't have enough troops to fight the insurgents.
But if we leave them there indefinitely, they'll continue to provide the reason for the insurgency.
Speed Racer
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More than likely in a manner similar to Germany and Japan in WWII or South Korea. We're still in all three places.

It's going to be at least a decade, I believe.
[:/]
Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

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The problem is our presence there is the motivation for the insurgency itself.



I think you need to go catch up on your history. This isn't the US's first rodeo that has progressed this way.

Its been this way quite a few times and overall the US has done a good job of doing this well (in wars we actually won that is).
--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

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I disagree with your hypothesis as to the primary motivation of the insurgency. I believe their primary motivation is fear of democracy taking hold. The Baathists know damned well that they won't get back into power and their still pissed off about it. That, in conjunction with the anti-American garbage broadcast on Al-Manar and radical clerics preaching their mantras of hate, are the primary things motivating the insurgents to take up arms.
:)Good topic. What is our extrication plan? how should it proceed? We're going to be arguing/chatting about that for the next several years.
:)
Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

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>I believe their primary motivation is fear of democracy taking hold.

I think this avenue of thinking - "the terrorists hate freedom!" - is dangerously naive, because it:

1. identifies the insurgency as a terror group that is against everything we stand for (and everything we think Iraqis should stand for)

2. marginalizes a group that we should be taking more seriously.

It may well be that the insurgency IS a potential part of that mythical government that can unify Iraq without a despot like Saddam Hussein at the helm. As with anything else, I think the insurgents are not homogenous; they are composed of lunatics, terrorists bent on killing US soldiers, political types who want power, and people who see themselves as patriots defending their country from a foreign power who is killing and torturing Iraqis. Now, the latter group is surely not seeing the whole picture, but they are seeing what happens in their neighborhoods - and all too often that means seeing Iraqis arrested for no reason, beaten up, and killed (by accident, but try telling him that.) From their own personal experiences, their clerics are right and CNN is wrong - and CNN is run by the US.

The problem we may run into is that the longer we stay there, the larger that fourth group (the patriots) will grow. We keep giving them more ammunition (both literally and figuratively) and we still don't have any sort of plan for dealing with them - other than killing them, which hasn't been very successful yet. Yet they are the people we can least afford to kill with impunity, because they are also the people who care enough about their country that they want to see it free. It is also the group that will, if given enough time, turn the world against us. It's one thing to topple Saddam Hussein, another thing to wage endless war against people defending their country.

I fear we may be on a track of trying to create a puppet government of primarily sheep who are all acceptably docile to be included in elections. How will we ever leave if that happens? A government pre-selected to not put up a fight will not last long in the Middle East - and indeed that fourth group will see to it that any American government _does_ topple.

But the opposite tack is also not that attractive. Trying to decipher insurgent's motives is impossible from our current position; we are the enemy. We could pull out and hope the fourth group wins out over the other three. That seems to have a low likelihood of success. We could extend an olive branch to them, but they'd be as likely to take it as we'd be likely to take a peace offering from Al Qaeda - the hatred runs too deeply now.

I think one thing that's clear is that the longer we wait the worse it will get. We may get to the point of having to accept ever-increasing US troop casualties and an endless decades-long occupation vs. a pullout, and neither one is attractive - but both options get worse the longer we wait.

>That, in conjunction with the anti-American garbage broadcast on
> Al-Manar and radical clerics preaching their mantras of hate, are
>the primary things motivating the insurgents to take up arms.

I think it's entirely possible that many Iraqis see us in a negative light even without any cleric (or any CNN reporter) telling them we are bad. Most americans would consider invaders who killed their neighbors as the bad guys; I don't think Iraqis are so different from us.

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speedy..how could you be so stupid and naive.. when the oils gone we'll leave.



Sorry but I don't think we're in Iraq because of Oil.
IMO it has more to do with with approx 50 years of our one sided foreign policy in the middle east.

Now we're dealing with 2-3 generation's of hate.

I'm guessing after the election, and the iraqi's take full contol there will be a civil war and Iraq will end up with three seperate parts, based on religious, ethnic groups.

41

R.I.P.

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The insurgency is a terror group, though probably a non-homogenous one as you've described. Considering them terrorists marginalizes them not at all.

Your point is interesting but ignores one thing: free elections are coming. The patriots of whom you speak will participate in these elections. I can't really fathom such a group being a large portion of the insurgents, but if you think they are so be it. I think the democratic process will prove an impediment to their recruiting efforts. Hard to say 'we've been taken over and have no control of our own land' when the public has just elected a government of their own.

We shall see.
:)
Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

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The exit strategy is for the Embassy guards to cut down a couple of trees from the compound to allow a Jolly Green Giant to land. Hue's take off personnel from the roof while soldiers burn documents and hundreds of thousands of dollars in barrels.

The local army has collapsed without US support and the roads are strewn with boots and uniforms as troops desert.

Enemy vehicles are in the outskirts of the city and insurgents are already in the centre.

At the gates of the embassy hundreds of locals who worked with the US during their time in the country clamber and shout to have the US will make good on its promises to them; desperately trying to escape the reprisals to come.

A loan reporter is hauled over the gates – the last American left in country.

In the Gulf, sailors push helicopters from the top of overloaded carriers so that the last sorties have space to land.

Damnit... now wait... am I describing the right war here?

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Of course there's a plan. The US doesn't commit troops without an exit strategy. Just because they haven't came out and said verbatim what it is doesn't mean there isn't one.



blind faith?!?

i'm sure there is _a_ plan. however, note that we're dealing with politicians here. if they had any plans with any semblance of future success, you would no doubt heard it by now.


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