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beowulf

an Arab view

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Many Arabs still dislike the US and are against the war in Iraq. Mostly just because they dislike certain US foreign policys. But, here is an interesting view from one Arab. Maybe progress will be made in Arab US relations. This was taken from Arabnews.com

Exclusive: ‘Saddam Did Not Fall Alone’
Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid, Editor in Chief, Asharq Al-Awsat



LONDON, 10 April 2003 — Saddam Hussein didn’t fall alone yesterday. Along with him, more important things fell. The big lies that accompanied him and glorified him and cheered him fell. The minds that refused to refer to today’s truths and yesterday’s history and spoke for the Iraqi people falsely fell as well. In front of the whole world, the Iraqis clinched the truth themselves in their own capital Baghdad — about which it was said that if Basra was a passing city that cheered for the American and British soldiers, the capital would be the stronghold of the invincible regime.

That is exactly why yesterday’s news shocked the Arabs more than the rest of the world. It shocked the Arabs from the utmost east in Kuwait to the utmost west in Morocco, and in all the cities in between.

This is where the people had not been sleeping because of the demonstrations that were taking place continuously, led by people thinking that they were defending the Iraqi people whereas in fact they were defending Saddam himself.

The news shocked the people of Cairo, where the fundamentalists, nationalists, leftists and the deceived headed numerous campaigns to declare their preparedness to defend Saddam’s Iraq.

But by yesterday morning, the TV stations — including that advocated the campaign to defend Saddam and his regime — didn’t succeed in hiding the images of the happy people celebrating in the capital.

That’s why yesterdays’ images, in which the people of Baghdad tore down their dictator’s pictures and pissed on them, overthrew the biggest lie in the contemporary history of the Arabic world.

And I say with confidence that the collapse of Saddam and his regime was not an important event itself, because it was bound to fall sooner or later, caused either by the Americans and British missiles or by the Iraqis’ swords; but the real event was challenging Arab political and cultural certainties. This was one of the rare times that they were examined and then disappeared into thin air. The same media succeeded in ignoring what had happened in Basra and had described the rejoicing there as a matter of depredation.

However, the picture was much bigger in the capital and it was not possible to conceal the truth, which was apparent to the whole world.

The populist rejoicing in the capital over Saddam’s overthrow ridiculed the Arab regimes, which have been lying in the name of the people for 50 or more years.

Until the last minute last night, the Arabic media kept whipping up stories about invading forces going after the Iraqis, the Arabs and even Arabic journalists. One of the correspondents there shouted saying that the American Army was targeting the Arab journalists to silence them after the killing of one of the TV journalists in Palestine Hotel. Apart from the fact that it was a sad story, its cause was incomplete for the Arab viewers. They were not told that only one Arabic journalist was killed but that 10 other Western journalists were also killed, some of them belonging to the countries of the coalition forces.

This war divided the Arabs into two categories.

The first pretended that the war was a battle of sovereignty, dignity and conspiracy. The other remained silent, especially the Iraqis themselves.

They are exiled or oppressed within the country. The latter knew that it was a war of liberation, or at least a war to dispose of a corrupt regime the same way it came to power — by force.

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HARJU'S ANALYSIS

Good points, but there are those in the Arab world who believe the whole statue-toppling scene was staged in Hollywood. >:(

I also saw from several sources that an al-Jazeera crew fled to Kuwait, with a mob of pissed-off Iraqis hot on their heels. Warms the heart, it really does.

The trouble is --

IT'S NOT ANYWHERE NEAR OVER.

And I still think that the Iraqis are going to fall prey to religious leaders who promise them paradise, and will install yet another Islamic state. Iran (also Shia) will be all too happy to help them.

However, if this is what the people want, it's what they will have.

Saddam kept the lid on the Shias with brutal control - that control is now gone. That it was an external force rather than a popular uprising that led to this, as with Iran, is irrelevant. The fact is that Saddam still has influence, but he's no longer in control, any more than the Shah's troops were. The Savaak were hanged in Tehran, but there were (and still are) those loyal to the Pahlavis.

There are some noises about re-establishing the Hashemite throne to Baghdad, and there are a couple of candidates for the job, but I believe an Islamic revolution will eclipse any efforts to establish a British-style parliamentary kingdom, or any other kind of government, if we allow a total vacuum to overtake the country. Unfortunately, we can't be everywhere, and Western-style democracy is an alien concept in this part of the world, and will hardly be embraced, given the cynicism on the part of certain countries (read France, Germany et al).

I predict that the Islamic Republic of Iraq will be firmly established in less than three years (Remember, you read it here first). Here's why:

Already, there are thousands of radical Islamic fundamentalist whackos streaming into the country. They aren't just there to die for Allah fighting the infidels. They're also there because they smell a ripe opportunity to establish yet another brutal Sharia state, and they're right. It won't be long before the people of Iraq will miss the security that came along with the brutality, and will long for the days when "the trains ran on time". Enter RIFWs (Radical Islamic Fundamentalist Whackos), promising the rudderless masses law, order, and - how many virgins was it?

Isn't it ironic that the area which is thought of as the birthplace of civilization is home to such backwardness and brutality?

edit for spelling and grammar.

"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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Yeah, this was what I was afraid of. I was pretty confident that we'd win the actual war, but it was what comes afterwards that worries me.

The only thing is: Iraq has been a fairly secular and diverse country for a long time, so just maybe, the public will not support government by RIFWs. (hey, markhaju just coined an acronym) But fundamentalist or not, the danger is that we'll just get another asshole in place of the one we just overthrew.
Speed Racer
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It's a safe bet, especially since such populations have a habit of putting up with the harshest of repression if it's based on Sharia. That it will be little different from Saddam's iron fist will not matter as much, because "It's Allah's law, not Saddam's, so that makes it okay." >:(

I wish the Iraqi expats could be sufficient in number to have more influence than the mullahs, but that's unlikely in my book (I'm such a cynic, but I'm usually right).

I only hope that when it's all over, they remember us as the ones who helped make it happen.

"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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>IT'S NOT ANYWHERE NEAR OVER.

I agree; we will see a lot of trouble with the Shi'a. I am also worried about what will happen with the Kurds. The Turks moved troops into N Iraq a while back, and they essentially disappeared (at least from news coverage.) Even if they have now exited Iraq, the US is now allowing Turkish military 'observers' into Northern Iraq cities. The Turks, of course, are very much afraid of a Kurdistan, one that will unite the Kurds of Turkey and Iraq. If one such state formed in Iraq it would be difficult to keep the Turkish Kurds from clamoring for _their_ independence.

I think we're going to see trouble before that all shakes out, and it will be tough to decide who to side with. If we side with Turkey (which we have an obligation to do through NATO) we might see ourselves fighting the Kurds to keep them under Iraqi rule - which would be pretty ironic.

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well, I don't know. Maybe you're right, but I'm not as sure about it as you are. I just think if any arab country could adopt a relatively-secular government, it would be Iraq. They would need a government that accomodates both Shiite and Sunnis (fewer Sunni, but they are richer & have more power & are more urban). This would imply a govt that's not quite so hardline, since fundamentalists of one sect do not tolerate the other sect. Fundamentalist Sunnis even go so far as to say Shiites are not actually Muslims. (kinda like the old days here when fundamentalist Protestants would say Catholics are not Christians)


Also, in spite of Saddam's repressive regime, Iraqis are not all that backward. This isn't Afghanistan we're dealing with.

Maybe you're still right, but I'm not so sure.
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I was going to discuss the Kurdish situation in my post, but deliberately left it out because I thought I was getting too long-winded.

I think the Kurds will be unstoppable, but if I were them, I'd take half a loaf now (Northern Iraq) as a semi-autonomous Kurdish state, and wait for an opportunity later to secede the rest from Turkey.

The Turks fear this, which is why they're trying hard to keep it from occuring.

Don't forget that the Turkomen and the Kurds claim the same territory and city as their capital.

I smell a civil war brewing. :( Throw in the fact that there's something really worth fighting for besides goats and desert (read - oil), and now you've got another Somalia on your hands.

My hope is that a Swiss-style decentralized canton system will be established, where each independent state is part of the greater whole, and no real centralized government exists.

I really think it's the only answer to the tribal conflicts. It is, after all, the solution that the Germans and the Swiss both came up with.

Another possible saving grace will be the oil. The West has been content to let the Third World duke it out over worthless places that nobody really wanted anyway, but this time, there's a prize to be had, and a bonanza for any country or company who can jump on board. This is what France, Germany and Russia are all keen on.

Therefore, look for the different factions to be backed by different outside powers. Not clairvoyance - just history.

mh

"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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Before the war all the negative people in the world were saying how big of a tragedy this would be. How hundreds of thousands Iraqis would be killed. How the American casulty rate would be high and how the Iraqi people would fight us to the very end because they did not want to be liberated. Then the war started and it was a bad battle plan, not enough troops we would be stopped in Baghdad. Now that everything has been proven wrong people have the nerve to say it was staged in Hollywood, My God people what will it take. Now your predicting that Iraqis aren't capable of living free. Who made you people Iraqis experts & How do you know this? Sometimes it just makes me sick to my stomach to listen to this BS after all we have done to help make our own country safer (remember the terrorist camps we destroyed, but that was probably staged in Hollywood as well) and free an Intelligent people from a ruthless dictator. My opinion is give it a rest pull together and bring our soldiers home as soon as we can!!!!!

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I predicted that "if" Saddam's forces fought smart, and got us into the cities, our losses could easily run into the thousands. I'm quite glad to have been proven wrong. B|

However, as I mentioned in my post, I'm a cynic.

History teaches that people aren't free just because a foreign power twangs the Magic Twanger.

They're not incapable of ruling themselves, but as a passionate, emotional poeple, in my opinion they lack the self-discipline that it takes to self-govern. Without a history of parliamentary democracy, and ruled by conflicting tribal and religious loyalties, anarchy is only a step away.

The strongest influence in the life of the average Iraqi (after Saddam, of course, whom they have been conditioned to think of as a god), is tribe and religious order. As one external influence diminshes, the others will rise up to take their place.

"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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>Now your predicting that Iraqis aren't capable of living free.

It would be foolish to assume that it will all be sweetness and light from here on in. I think it would be a mistake to just pull out now and let the Iraqis fight it out. Don't forget, that country's been living under an iron fist for decades. The marsh arabs have been decimated, the kurds repressed, the shi'a intimidated. Now they are all free. It's a big change for them to adapt to. I hope they can all live free - but we shouldn't bank on the hope that they will.

>How do you know this?

History. Does that mean it will absolutely repeat? No. Is it likely? I think it is.

>Sometimes it just makes me sick to my stomach to listen to this BS . .

Then read the boobie threads; you won't get sick to your stomach.

>My opinion is give it a rest pull together and bring our soldiers home
>as soon as we can!!!!!

Sorry, I don't think that will happen. We still have a lot of troops in Afghanistan; it's been over a year fpr that war. Heck, we're still bombing there. And more may be sent over soon - the Taliban have shown signs of regrouping.

Iraq is a larger (in terms of population) than Afghanistan, and there are more challenges. The mix of different Arab sects and Kurds is one big one. We'll be there for a while. Even our administration is saying this. Americans and Iraqis will continue to die, though hopefully in ever-smaller numbers. We're in this for the long haul, now - it's a little late to be hoping we can avoid US deaths by getting troops out of there.

As I recall, you were one of the ones clamoring for war. We're in that war now, and will be in it for quite some time.

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I think I miscommunicated my last statement. I 100% think we have to finish the job. We must set up an IIA, and ensure the stability of Iraq until they can hold their own elections & set up their own democracy. I'm also glad that that we didn't listen to the people who only predicted gloom & doom for 13 colonies 225+ years ago. I think we have done a pretty good job. Or we couldn't have this debate.

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Before the war all the negative people in the world were saying how big of a tragedy this would be. How hundreds of thousands Iraqis would be killed. How the American casulty rate would be high and how the Iraqi people would fight us to the very end because they did not want to be liberated. Then the war started and it was a bad battle plan, not enough troops we would be stopped in Baghdad.



I heard each of those points on the news a lot as being attributed to people against the war. But from actually talking to people I found that the majority were against it for two basic reasons. 1) People would die and killing is bad, 2) It won't do much good in the long run.

I personally still stand by both of those points while at the same time being glad that none of the scenarios that you highlighted came to pass.

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>I 100% think we have to finish the job. We must set up an IIA, and
>ensure the stability of Iraq until they can hold their own elections &
> set up their own democracy.

Yep, I agree there - although I think we also have to accept it if they choose a form of government other than democracy.

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I only hope that when it's all over, they remember us as the ones who helped make it happen.



I think that depends a LOT on the West's role in helping Iraq rebuild itself and it's government. Hopefully we (the US) won't just say, "okay, we liberated you, now you be a democracy," and leave town.

It seems to me we now have an opportunity to improve US relations with Islamic nations. Hopefully our leaders won't waste that chance.

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Yep, I agree there - although I think we also have to accept it if they choose a form of government other than democracy.



I agree wholeheartedly, Bill. It is, after all, what we are supposed to be fighting for.
"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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It seems to me we now have an opportunity to improve US relations with Islamic nations. Hopefully our leaders won't waste that chance.



Unfortunately, we have a very poor track record of maintaining our attention span when the big show is over. As Bill pointed out, the Taliban are regrouping in Afghanistan while our attention is diverted.

Call me clueless, but even governments often cannot walk and chew gum at the same time.
"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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Quote: I heard each of those points on the news a lot as being attributed to people against the war. But from actually talking to people I found that the majority were against it for two basic reasons. 1) People would die and killing is bad, 2) It won't do much good in the long run.
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Point # 1 I agree killing is very bad! Saddam has been killing his own people for 32 years. It is also bad to imprison children for not being in the Military. It is also bad to commit genicide by gassing thousands of kurdish civilianns with WMD's that he dosen't have. It is also bad to hang your citizens or cut their tounges out for disagreeing. But your right killing is bad so should we shut our eyes and pretend it's not happening or hope it goes away on it's own or is killing only bad when it happens to us, OH wait it did on 9/11/2001 or did we forget. Did Iraq have anything to do with that My opinion is yes but not backed by facts. Do I think he would do it to the USA Yes I do. So do we turn our backs on killing or do we stop it. Point 2: I feel the majority of intelligent people KNOW it will do good. and has already done so in the fact that all though the war is far from over the regime of an evil dictaor is over and the world is already a much safer place for every one.

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You are rehashing arguments about why we invaded in the first place. My point is that most of us who were opposed to military action didn't say that it wouldn't be successful. What we said was that we probably could have been successful using other means that didn't involve people being killed as a direct result of our actions.

Did the military succeed in toppling Saddam. Sure looks that way. Could it have been done with zero...that zero, not minimal, not minor, not unavoidable, but ZERO casualties from bombs dropped by us, I think so. You can argue that until you are blue in the face but you can't prove otherwise.

And your response to point 2 assumes that the majority of intelligent people reside solely in the US. Because the majority of the rest of the world doesn't have that belief. US population = 290 million....world population = 6.3 billion. I "feel" you may be wrong.

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(aka Hollyweird)

"Saddam Gooooood. War Baaaaad."

's Monster>

B|
"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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I keep hearing that there were other ways but noone seems to know what those other ways were. Perhaps more time for inspections or diplomacy or to get more resolutions. Well using more time is just fine for us in our cozy little worlds, but ask the women of Iraq who are being raped, watching their children starve or their husbands/sons be tortured to just wait.

Chris



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Chris






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US population = 290 million....world population = 6.3 billion. I "feel" you may be wrong.



On a serious note: One could say that our mere 4% of the world population has contributed far more to the world than its proportions might be expected to.

On a humorous note: There are 6.01 billion other people? :P
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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............ the Taliban are regrouping in Afghanistan while our attention is diverted.

Call me clueless, but even governments often cannot walk and chew gum at the same time.



poor uninformed person.. guess you dont have the morning update brief....
Leroy


..I knew I was an unwanted baby when I saw my bath toys were a toaster and a radio...

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> but noone seems to know what those other ways were.

You've asked that in the past, and I've listed a few other ways. I know you disagree with them, but that's because you disagree with them - it's not because they don't exist.

>Well using more time is just fine for us in our cozy little worlds, but
>ask the women of Iraq who are being raped, watching their children
> starve or their husbands/sons be tortured to just wait.

Just as you could ask the 15 year old boy missing his arms (and his family) due to an american bomb if he thanks god that the bomb fell on his house.

Waiting forever, or for a very long time for 'endless resolutions' would result in more Iraqis killed by Saddam. The way we did it resulted in some people being killed - around 6800 at last count. And that's not too bad; it could have been a lot worse. Still, some of us believe that there were other options between those two extremes.

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The way we did it resulted in some people being killed - around 6800 at last count. And that's not too bad; it could have been a lot worse. Still, some of us believe that there were other options between those two extremes.



Don't forget that "body counts" are ALWAYS exaggerated. Remember the World Trade Center - initial claims were up to 6,000. that was revised downward quite a bit as were Iraqi deaths in PGW1. They make for sensationalism and statistics, which is why they get hyped up so much.

I'm not forgetting, however, that there has been a lot of death. I just hope it'll be over soon.
"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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Did the military succeed in toppling Saddam. Sure looks that way. Could it have been done with zero...that zero, not minimal, not minor, not unavoidable, but ZERO casualties from bombs dropped by us, I think so. You can argue that until you are blue in the face but you can't prove otherwise.




Not likely. And wait as they train more people are trained to blow up and Hijack jets. To build up more of a inventory of WMD from France, Russia, China ect. As they murder and rape more Iraqis. We waited a long time for SH to come around. His people as a whole hated him. We were greeted as liberators. Is that hard for some of you to accept?

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