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Megatron

Does the risk eventually catch up to everyone?

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The death rate for motorcyclists is about the same as for skydivers.

Neither activity is required, both are recreational although motorcycling perhaps has a practical purpose. But jumping has no purpose except thrill. We all know that. It's pure recreation, and in some little corner of our mind, we think it might be worth dying for.

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Does the risk eventually catch up to everyone?'
......................

Eventually the answer must be yes.
Somethings eventually gunna get ya.B|

If the risk is always present then it will always be there waiting for the slightest slip-up.

Last time I checked NO-ONE is perfect.

Skydiving is playing the risk-minimisation game perhaps moreso than risk-elimination.

Some pretty hefty, never before activated , combination-cluster-phucks are brewing away right now just waiting for the perfect environment to express their brutal lessons to the over confident and in-experienced .

Complacency ie self delusional over -confidence , has long been the foe of exremish sports like skydiving.

thinking that the risks you take will never get you is merely delusional thought.

If it can get you it will, often after luring you into a nice cosy sense of safety and self satisfaction.

Xtreme sports can be seen like a huge mouse trap with us as the mice.
The experienced survivors nibbling away at the bait VERY slowly while the newbies think they can eat it all at once.:|



I wish I could agree whole-heartedly, but I cannot.

Although cold, mathematical statistics are one aspect of the situation that governs the "reality" of risk, the individual has a large portion of the control within their grasp.

We each bring to the moment our expectations, our skill, and our ability to refocus our minds on what we want to have happen. My experience confirms my belief that we are in control over more than 50 percent of the equation.

Quantum physics agrees as well. You are experiencing what you have created in your visualizations and expectations, and how you handle the situations that challenge your abilities has far more to do with the outcome than simple statistics and probabilities.

This is the core of the adventurer's philosophy. We believe that we can control the outcome to an acceptable degree, so we feel comfortable with the "risk-to-benefit" ratio. To the person less capable of self-trust, math seems the only answer that has any meaning. To a skydiver, math is what the whuffos do when they watch us, almost hoping we will burn in so we can give them a bit of excitement in their dull lives made duller by the fear that has turned them into spectators, rather than participants.

So, you may find that your malfunction rate falls along predictable lines, but if you truly believe in yourself, you are far more likely to fix your malfunction. That's what pilots do. That is transcending math, and living on a higher causal plane of cause and effect by working on a quantum level.

We are, all of us, very impressive. We jump out of airplanes and live. We live because we manipulate the situation with our minds by believing and creating what we believe through thought and action. We are benders of probabilities, and manufactures of realities. We are pilots of what is, through conscious intent. We are doing what we were born to do, demonstrating that humans are more than meat puppets. We are creators of novel moments in time that bring about novel branches of possibilities that did not exist before our attention was drawn to them.

We are nothing short of visionaries.

Peace and Joy for the New Year to You All,
Brian
+
Instructional Videos:www.AdventureWisdom.com
Keynote Speaking:www.TranscendingFEAR.com
Canopies and Courses:www.BIGAIRSPORTZ.com

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Does the risk eventually catch up to everyone?'
......................

Eventually the answer must be yes.
Somethings eventually gunna get ya.B|

If the risk is always present then it will always be there waiting for the slightest slip-up.

Last time I checked NO-ONE is perfect.

Skydiving is playing the risk-minimisation game perhaps moreso than risk-elimination.

Some pretty hefty, never before activated , combination-cluster-phucks are brewing away right now just waiting for the perfect environment to express their brutal lessons to the over confident and in-experienced .

Complacency ie self delusional over -confidence , has long been the foe of exremish sports like skydiving.

thinking that the risks you take will never get you is merely delusional thought.

If it can get you it will, often after luring you into a nice cosy sense of safety and self satisfaction.

Xtreme sports can be seen like a huge mouse trap with us as the mice.
The experienced survivors nibbling away at the bait VERY slowly while the newbies think they can eat it all at once.:|



I wish I could agree whole-heartedly, but I cannot.

Although cold, mathematical statistics are one aspect of the situation that governs the "reality" of risk, the individual has a large portion of the control within their grasp.

We each bring to the moment our expectations, our skill, and our ability to refocus our minds on what we want to have happen. My experience confirms my belief that we are in control over more than 50 percent of the equation.

Quantum physics agrees as well. You are experiencing what you have created in your visualizations and expectations, and how you handle the situations that challenge your abilities has far more to do with the outcome than simple statistics and probabilities.

This is the core of the adventurer's philosophy. We believe that we can control the outcome to an acceptable degree, so we feel comfortable with the "risk-to-benefit" ratio. To the person less capable of self-trust, math seems the only answer that has any meaning. To a skydiver, math is what the whuffos do when they watch us, almost hoping we will burn in so we can give them a bit of excitement in their dull lives made duller by the fear that has turned them into spectators, rather than participants.

So, you may find that your malfunction rate falls along predictable lines, but if you truly believe in yourself, you are far more likely to fix your malfunction. That's what pilots do. That is transcending math, and living on a higher causal plane of cause and effect by working on a quantum level.

We are, all of us, very impressive. We jump out of airplanes and live. We live because we manipulate the situation with our minds by believing and creating what we believe through thought and action. We are benders of probabilities, and manufactures of realities. We are pilots of what is, through conscious intent. We are doing what we were born to do, demonstrating that humans are more than meat puppets. We are creators of novel moments in time that bring about novel branches of possibilities that did not exist before our attention was drawn to them.

We are nothing short of visionaries.

Peace and Joy for the New Year to You All,
Brian
+


very well spoken!

i guess i should go get your books :P
"I may be a dirty pirate hooker...but I'm not about to go stand on the corner." iluvtofly
DPH -7, TDS 578, Muff 5153, SCR 14890
I'm an asshole, and I approve this message

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You make it sound like "wuffos doing statistics" are the ones responsible for the actual results :p

We are the ones that pack our chutes, we jump out of planes, we throw 100-300 sq of cloth into the air at 200kmh and we deal with mals. It's also us that gets injured or die from time to time.
This is _our_ statistics. It us. Not wuffos image of us.

I do agree that self-trust goes a long long long way, but in some cases it just isn't enough or even backfires. Always stay on your toes for that mal which you'll talk about to your grandkids about. If you deal with it in the right way that is.

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Peace and Joy for the New Year to You All


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I understand the need for conformity. Without a concise set of rules to follow we would probably all have to resort to common sense. -David Thorne

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The death rate for motorcyclists is about the same as for skydivers.

Neither activity is required, both are recreational although motorcycling perhaps has a practical purpose. But jumping has no purpose except thrill. We all know that. It's pure recreation, and in some little corner of our mind, we think it might be worth dying for.





I gotta wonder if anyone really thinks anything (recreational) is worth dying for...I submit that we accept the risk of injury or death.

If you knew hands down that you would 'sleep with the fishes' as a result of skydiving, there wouldn't be much of a line a manifest.










~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

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We believe that we can control the outcome to an acceptable degree, so we feel comfortable with the "risk-to-benefit" ratio. To the person less capable of self-trust, math seems the only answer that has any meaning.



I am not really sure what most of your post means but this “self-trust” you speak of sounds like it is a close relative of “over confident” and his brother “arrogant.” Both will kill you if you give them just a little bit of a chance. To keep them at bay you must know your limitations. You experience limitations, your knowledge limitations. As airtwardo said, “The actual 'Holy Grail' is longevity, no recreational activity is worth dying for...”

I just posted this to another thread but it works here.
***“Patrick De Gayardon, Rob Harris, Tom Piras, Roger Nelson, etc……… They were Kings - World Champions - Icons.
They had talent, were hugely current, had incredible skills... And yet the ground offered them no concession for their level of skill or experience.”

Tonto – 2005


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but if you truly believe in yourself, you are far more likely to fix your malfunction



I have a strict rule against rigging in the air. ;)

Sparky
My idea of a fair fight is clubbing baby seals

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Hi Sparky,

I agree with your comments in principle, who wouldn't?

I would also add that I believe that balance that results in safety and longevity is between the two opposing forces of Perceived Ability and Perceived Risk.

In other words, when we are out of balance with these two main variables, we are into one of two performance-reducing realities:
Complacency or debilitating levels of Fear.

Both are dangerous, and result in different kinds of accidents. In the end, dead is dead, no matter how we get there.

The point I was making is that caution can lead us to be TOO Cautious in our approach at times, when fear gets too high, and that can result in a reality that is dangerous. We have all seen it happen, particularly in students, but also in ourselves in competition or high stakes skydives. We want to avoid screwing up, so we loose sight of the look and feeling of true success. We are focused on the negative, so we loose our way to the best case scenario.

This is the aspect of the quantum effects of fear to which I was referring. It is the consequences of attitude and expectation that result in the self-fulfilling prophesy of failure.

I am not saying that we should throw all fear away. I would not have lived this long if that was my only motto, neither would have any of the other readers. Our wisdom guides us to listen to what our fear is pointing out in terms of danger, and approach the solutions with positive emotion and constructive attitude.

Patrick and the other Great Ones may have become complacent due to repeated exposure to danger without negative consequence, but they survived many many dangerous situations prior to their final failure due to their positive attitude and fearless approach. We should not throw the baby out with the bathwater. You can climb a thousand mountains, and do they call you "Sparky-The-Mountain-Climber?"; probably not. But make love to one sheep...

The true wisdom is the middle way, between fearless denial and fearful contraction of possibilties.

BSG
Instructional Videos:www.AdventureWisdom.com
Keynote Speaking:www.TranscendingFEAR.com
Canopies and Courses:www.BIGAIRSPORTZ.com

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I think every jump is an isolated event governed by your mental state, your preparation, the state of your equipment, weather, those on the jump with you etc.. I think its like buying 100 lottery tickets. Just because you have 100 tix doesn't make your chances of winning are really any better - you just have 100 of the same 1 in however many odds of winning there are.

If you approach each and every jump with the proper preparation, mental readiness etc.. you should be able to zero out the accumulation of "the odds" against you.



"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."

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The death rate for motorcyclists is about the same as for skydivers.



So... I'm wondering, if you do both, is the risk additive or exponential??? EEK![:/] And, what happens if you also ski, rock climb, jump off cliffs, and are stupid to boot??? Man, am I in trouble...
Birdshit & Fools Productions

"Son, only two things fall from the sky."

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I think every jump is an isolated event governed by your mental state, your preparation, the state of your equipment, weather, those on the jump with you etc.. I think its like buying 100 lottery tickets. Just because you have 100 tix doesn't make your chances of winning are really any better - you just have 100 of the same 1 in however many odds of winning there are.



You are wrong. While each skydive is separate event (like a single lottery ticket), the statistics of many skydives is very solid piece of information. It can not in any way predict an outcome of a single event, but then again there is no other way to predict future.
Lets consider this example: We have a truckload of plutonium 239, which has a half life of 24100 years. Half life value is a statistical information. It means that after about 24100 years half of that plutonium will decompose into smaller atoms. That is what statistics does really well.

What everyone here is asking is "will I die on my next skydive?". If we translate this to plutonium this would be equal to having just one (1) atom of plutonium 239 and wandering when it will break down into smaller atoms. The answer to this question would be: "We don't know." Statistics only works on large amounts of events and fails miserably on single events (as does everything else).

While you could consider your skydives as isolated events, you are still very much a part of skydiving statistics whether you like it or not. Although this statistics can not determine the outcome of your next jump (or your next 1000 jumps for that matter), yours (and mine and everyone else') skydives are the very foundation of that 1 in 30.000 number.

Statistics was "invented" because people found out that in some cases it is impossible to consider every factor to determine an outcome of an event. Skydiving fits this description fairly well.
No one up to date was able to prove statistics wrong (statistical results can easily be misunderstood and politicians take good advantage of that fact), so until you (or anyone else) finds a better way to analyze this kind of data... we're stuck with 1/30.000
I understand the need for conformity. Without a concise set of rules to follow we would probably all have to resort to common sense. -David Thorne

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>I think every jump is an isolated event governed by your mental state, your
>preparation, the state of your equipment, weather, those on the jump with you etc.

I agree. However, one aspect of your preparation is your currency and experience - and those are NOT isolated events, since they rely on you making other jumps.

> I think its like buying 100 lottery tickets. Just because you have 100 tix
>doesn't make your chances of winning are really any better - you just have
>100 of the same 1 in however many odds of winning there are.

Actually, now you have 100 in however many odds of winning there are.

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I agree. However, one aspect of your preparation is your currency and experience - and those are NOT isolated events, since they rely on you making other jumps.



~just to add...don't forget about wear & tear on your gear, every jump is a lil' bit more dangerous than the last! :ph34r:;)











~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

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Every second of plutonium atoms' life is isolated event, just like our skydives are. You do get a feeling you can control the outcome by making sure you minimize chances of things going wrong, but I'm pretty sure that at the same time you realize that you have only minimized those chances, not eliminated them.
That is why you can't tell when that atom is going to decompose... no one can. The same goes for the next skydive.

And unfortunately it only takes one mistake/coincidence to die and no one said it has to be your fault. Drunk driver killing a pedestrian is a good example of that. Crossing on green light, looking left and right, making sure you cross the road alive...
You could have some one falling through your canopy and killing you, you could run into some weird winds before landing and land on a sharp, pointy object, or you could have the best skydive of your life. You just can't say what will happen; except that after 30.000 jumps or so there will probably be another dead skydiver.
I understand the need for conformity. Without a concise set of rules to follow we would probably all have to resort to common sense. -David Thorne

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We are not plutonium atoms.
People can be broken down into sub groups.
For example, certain age groups have more car accidents than others.
Certain styles of driving are safer than other styles.
We can modify our risk by our choices and our behavior.
Both for driving and skydiving, there is more to it than statistics.
We may not be able to change the overall number, but we can change the odds of being one of them.
But what do I know?

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I do understand how people like the idea of being able to defy statistics if they choose so... even I like it. But if that was the case we have a very easy solution to make skydiving (and driving) accident free activity. But somehow despite its simplicity this solution does not work and people are still getting injured.
One might ask himself why? We all read about accidents and try to find best way to solve them (others hear it from their buddys or coaches, but eventually everyone learns how to make skydiving safer). With this knowledge anyone with half of brain should figure out what the solution is. And yet many still fail at it.

This is why we are exactly like plutonium atoms (figuratively speaking of course). There is so many factors involved in an outcome of a skydive (or a skydivers career) that it is impossible to describe (or predict) these events using analytical methods (figuring out the factors influencing the outcome and calculate/estimate the result). This uncertainty is of course very different from that incorporated into nuclear decay of plutonium (quantum physics mumbo jumbo), but it affects the result in the same way.
Because of some weird, unexpected, unexplained factors the outcome is that from statistics.

But again: Taking statistical result and applying it to your next jump (or 100 jumps or whole career) is wrong. The actual results is best interpreted as "if indefinite number of skydives are made under current conditions, 1 in every 30.000 will end with fatal injury".
So you need lots of jumps (much more than 30.000, preferably indefinite amount but that's not going to happen in this universe).
On the other hand if you were to plan on sending all skydivers in US do 1000 jumps each.... you'd probably get the statistical result, even if every single one of them is coached prior each jump on how to make it down alive.
I understand the need for conformity. Without a concise set of rules to follow we would probably all have to resort to common sense. -David Thorne

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Thanks awagnon, sorry for being late but I didn't forget the problem. I have been quite busy recently, new contracts...
As I promised I gave the problem to professional statisticians and here is 2 solutions yielding to the same results.
Pchapman on this forum gave the right answer but he did it by first considering the chance of staying alive. I have been trying to solve the problem using the chance to be killed as the original problem was. I would rather be playing calculus!!!

Problem : If there is 1 jumper killed per 100 000 jumps then what is the probabilitye for an individual to get killed after making n jumps

SOLUTION 1) using 1 minus the probability to stay alive:
probability to get killed for n jump = 1 - (0,99999)EXP n (EXP means exponant) similar to Peter's solution

then for 1000 jumps the probability to get killed is 0.00995 or 0.995%
for 100 000 jumps the probability to get killed is 0.6321 or 63.21%

SOLUTION 2) since there is one chance to get killed then the random variable X represents the first "success" and is distributed according a geometrical law with p as the parameter. p being the probability to get killed for any typical jump. For this solution you need to use EXCEL or a program doing the SUM of p(k)

NOTE: SUM (sigma mathematical symbol)

a) probability to get killed at jump #k is : p(k) = P(X=k) = p times (1-p) exp (k-1)

b) Probability to get killed for a career of n jumps is : P(X < or = n) = SUM of p(k) (from k=1 to k=n) or to make it clear P(n) = p(1) + p(2) + p(3) +...+ p(n-1) + p(n)

That gives the following results for n = 1000 jumps: P(1000) = 0.00995 or 0.995%

But all of this makes me think about the safety. Make sure to attend to the SAFETY DAY at your DZ before the jumping season starts again.

I hope megatron will be happy with those results. But lets all make the statistics lie.
Learn from others mistakes, you will never live long enough to make them all.

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Thanks, Andre (Erdnarob), for the followup answer and to Megatron for asking the question. I doubt I will ever have enough jumps at my age (61) to worry about cummulative risk. Still, it's enlightening to know the answer and somewhat comforting to know the cummulative risk isn't as great as expected.
Alton

"Luck favors the prepared."

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Hi awagnon, it was a very interesting thread indeed and a legitimate question from Megatron.
Just FYI I was at DeLand with the SOS a month ago and at one time, the guy on my left on the same zipper (hooked to the base) was 78. Then your are far away from being done with skydiving. Stay in shape, mentally and physically and have a good skydiving season.
Learn from others mistakes, you will never live long enough to make them all.

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Stats are great for sports records only. If I lived my life according to stats, I would be living in a bubble. I do things according to my own decision, I know the risk, abide by the safety rules & do things by the book. If all goes bad and I die it's called "fate". People who don't go by the rules are a single digit in the stats. As you can see I did not mention skydiving

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