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Deisel

Setting landing direction (was: Perris double fatality)

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You really should learn how to be a skydiver before you advise us on how to do this thing.



I am not the one complaining about downwinders. I can do them without injury. You're the one who seems to need the practice. :S

I am not advising any more than anyone else who chips into the conversation with a point or comment. Hence my use of phrases such as "IMO..." (In My Opinion) and "It seems to me that...."

Are you such a skygod that you want a jump number limit on even discussing this issue?
"The ground does not care who you are. It will always be tougher than the human behind the controls."

~ CanuckInUSA

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Tell that to the tandem student I have to land down wind in 10 to 15 because the winds shifted and you couldn't figure out how to read and adapt to a landing pattern from 1000 feet above it.



Reading a pattern from 1000 feet above is not terribly difficult.

... but what if you are not 1000 feet above it?

What if you are the lowest canopy, you're about to start or have already started your pattern, and a faster canopy passes you and lands in the opposite direction than the one you are setting up for?

Depending on where you are in your pattern, you may be still be able to follow the FMD, but your flight path probably isn't going to look anything like a standard landing pattern. Not terribly safe with other traffic around, especially if that other traffic are also suddenly flying creative patterns in order to follow the FMD.

If you're further along in your pattern, you may have no good options at all. Depending on the size and layout of the DZ, you may be faced with the choice of landing opposite the FMD, or going for the parked aircraft/hangars/trees/powerlines/runway with plane taking off/gravel pit/busy highway/etc.
"It's amazing what you can learn while you're not talking." - Skydivesg

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So the argument dismissing the 83% of fatalities last year is that (to take it to its logical conclusion) ~83% of skydives made were by D license holders?

Personally I'd be happy to avoid any DZ that has an FMD rule, not because I'm concerned about landing in any wind direction but because it presents a danger to me and others around me. I've never jumped at Perris so I don't know the unusual weather patterns there. To me, if you're getting winds switching that quickly from load to load, at a wind speed that would be dangerous to land down wind in, I'd say don't jump. What do I know though.

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All this talk about ego and arrogance and here we go...

Oh the irony of it all.
[/B|]


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+1

B|



*whoosh*


Sorry POPS, that "whoosh" is for YOU... guess it didn't occur to you that I appreciate a well-delivered riposte even if I'm its well-deserved target.

And now, as long as I'm here again, I'm really wondering what's with your hostility toward the "FMD camp." FMD is one of several workable solutions to traffic issues and, so far, has proven to be the best solution at Perris due to its wind conditions and wide-open alternative landing areas for people who choose not to follow FMD.

At Perris, it's really REALLY simple: If you want to land on the grass, follow FMD. If you don't like FMD's choice, land the way you want at one of the alternate landing sites a couple of hundred yards away or more -- and wait for the DZ taxi service to come get you.

The only caveat: Have enough common sense to understand that landing "just east of the grass" or anywhere else inside the grass traffic pattern envelope is a lawyerly technical distinction, not an operational boundary.

B|
SCR-6933 / SCS-3463 / D-5533 / BASE 44 / CCS-37 / 82d Airborne (Ret.)

"The beginning of wisdom is to first call things by their right names."

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I've never jumped at Perris so I don't know the unusual weather patterns there. To me, if you're getting winds switching that quickly from load to load, at a wind speed that would be dangerous to land down wind in, I'd say don't jump. What do I know though.



+1.

That is in fact what a lot of jumpers do at Perris, especially during the really gnarly months when it's hot, thermally, dust-devilly, and ridiculously changeable al at the same time.

Contrary to one poster on this thread who says he doesn't jump at Perris but claims to know everything about the landing conditions there, the winds often change continuously throughout the day, not only from load to load, but from the time you open to the time you land -- and sometimes blow different directions at opposite ends of the the grass landing area.

For that reason, a LOT of Perris jumpers will park it at various times during a "jumpable" day to avoid that very dilemma.

B|
SCR-6933 / SCS-3463 / D-5533 / BASE 44 / CCS-37 / 82d Airborne (Ret.)

"The beginning of wisdom is to first call things by their right names."

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Sorry POPS, that "whoosh" is for YOU... guess it didn't occur to you that I appreciate a well-delivered riposte even if I'm its well-deserved target.


It's rare that anyone would do that and I totally missed the intent.

My apologies, please.
I was off-base and got picked off.
[:/]


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And now, as long as I'm here again, I'm really wondering what's with your hostility toward the "FMD camp."


That's been spelled out several times over several threads by several people.....even young jumpers see and understand it
.

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At Perris, it's really REALLY simple: If you want to land on the grass, follow FMD. If you don't like FMD's choice, land the way you want at one of the alternate landing sites


....and that's one of the points spelled out over and over again.


I just see numbers piling up at Perris and can't help but wonder, "why is it business as usual there?"

I don't agree with Bill's excuse of volume and probabilities....and still, "business as usual".
My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

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I just see numbers piling up at Perris and can't help but wonder, "why is it business as usual there?"

I don't like FMD either, but I don't really see the traffic-related numbers piling up at Perris more than any other really busy DZ.

The fatality last year was during a camp, and (if I remember rightly) the issue was one of someone entering a well-established pattern from the wrong side, rather than not being sure which way to go.

Again, I hate FMD, but it doesn't seem to be contributing to fatalities at Perris.

Wendy P.
There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

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FMD is a bad idea at any DZ.

It creates sitting in brakes by half of the load, fixated on who is going to set the pattern. The pattern then gets set by a swooper that doesn't do a visible downind, base, final. Half of the load sets up one way and then the landing direction suddenly gets changed. Now there are low turns and cross traffic trying to get in the pattern. I saw this result in a badly injured jumper last summer, following the FMD. The default landing direction for light and variable is to the North at Perris. Most of the time FMD forgets that.
And now add in the North landing area. If the first group gets out south of the DZ, but jumpers want to go to the North, they cross traffic with the later groups going to the main LZ on the grass.
Another thing about FMD. We load the plane according to exit order for freefall collision avoidance. So let's say there is a 10 way of RW jumpers and then three small 3 way freefly groups. Usually the freeflyers are on smaller canopies, thus they have to navigate traffic to land. Is it time we load the plane according to wingloading factors and give more time between groups? Do we load the plane according to the spot for what group wants to land in which area? We have to let the naturual speed of the canopies sort themselves out so faster parachutes aren't overtaking slower ones in the lz.
Are really busy three plane days an appropriate time for less experienced jumpers to be in? Most of us have been at a busy DZ where there is one load after another being dropped. I have had a second load of jumpers beat me to the ground, and I'm on a Katana 120. So which FMD do they follow? My plane's FMD or theirs?
This is more than a training issue. We have to take a serious look at how we run the entire operation to mitigate the hazards and make things as safe as possible.

Rich Grimm
(LONG time Perris jumper)

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Sorry POPS, that "whoosh" is for YOU... guess it didn't occur to you that I appreciate a well-delivered riposte even if I'm its well-deserved target.


It's rare that anyone would do that and I totally missed the intent.

My apologies, please.
I was off-base and got picked off.
[:/]


+1

;)

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And now, as long as I'm here again, I'm really wondering what's with your hostility toward the "FMD camp."


That's been spelled out several times over several threads by several people.....even young jumpers see and understand it
.

true, but you're the only one who seems really hostile toward the people who support it, even in part.


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At Perris, it's really REALLY simple: If you want to land on the grass, follow FMD. If you don't like FMD's choice, land the way you want at one of the alternate landing sites


....and that's one of the points spelled out over and over again.


I just see numbers piling up at Perris and can't help but wonder, "why is it business as usual there?"

What you think you see doesn't mean that's the way it is and, when you get right down to it, the hysteria over Perris Valley's FMD reminds me a lot of the hysteria that surrounded Perris Valley's missing Russian. There were all these wild assertions that the entire system needed to be thrown out in order to avoid that one-in-10-million chance that someone might get hurt and end up being overlooked at the end of the jump day. Then with the Russian, as now after Pat and Chris, there is casual and/or even formal revisitation of the best practices that can minimize the chances of either event happening again, but it's systemically psychotic to demand system overhauls every time there's a statistically insignificant hiccup in the system.

Which, to be clear, is not saying that any individual death is insignificant. In the case which sparked this thread, Patrick was a friend of almost 20 years and his loss leaves a big hole for me personally. But at times like this, it's vital to put aside personal feelings that cloud better judgment when it comes to radically changing systems based on anecdotal, perceived or flat-out incorrect data.

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I don't agree with Bill's excuse of volume and probabilities....and still, "business as usual".



Bill's assertions are not excuses; they are FACTS: There are almost no DZs in the world that do more jumps per year than Perris, and I don't think there are any DZs anywhere in the world that do as many big-way events per year attended by hundreds of people from all over the world.

Despite this and its often-gnarly wind and density altitude challenges, Perris definitely has a good and arguably has a stellar safety record.

And please don't forget another fact: Sometimes at Perris during the last two decades, there have been 2- and 3-year gaps between fatalities of any kind, and even longer gaps between "traffic-related" fatalities, yet the "off-year" kudos are inversely proportional to the "on-year" brickbats.

So maybe instead of hyperventilating hyperbole, it might serve everyone better to just kinda cool it and remember that we're doing something very dangerous that we do by choice not necessity and if you don't like the complex air traffic environment at large DZs, then quit jumping or find a place that flies one Cessna and you won't have to worry about it.

B|
SCR-6933 / SCS-3463 / D-5533 / BASE 44 / CCS-37 / 82d Airborne (Ret.)

"The beginning of wisdom is to first call things by their right names."

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Robin,

Times like this are difficult for everyone to understand and even more difficult for those not at the drop zone in question on a regular basis.

While there may be a number of those individuals giving you heat for your explanations of the operations at Perris, I find them to be highly accurate and well written. It's not your fault if people don't understand what they have no personal frame of reference to though. The lack of a shared frame of reference is frequently the barrier to communication throughout the world.

While some people may have dismissed you in the past for your sometimes volatile postings and strong opinions about certain aspects of the sport, I wish they'd take a step back from their own egos and appreciate your breath and depth of experience that few, not just on this web site, but in the entire sport of skydiving, have to offer.


To everyone else,

Yeah, Robin can be difficult sometimes. Just freekin' man up and put your egos on the back burner and listen a bit. He was skydiving while most of you were shitting in your diapers. He should probably be dead at least a half dozen times, but he's survived and has some wisdom about how things work you guys probably haven't considered.

This also goes for some folks griping about a first man down philosophy versus whatever the heck you might be used to at your particular drop zone.

EVERY drop zone is a unique situation. Every damn one of them. This is why there really can't be any universal solution that fits all of them. Until you realize that, you'll be looking for one that simply doesn't exist.

I have more dead friends than I've ever wanted to have. A LOT of them. Some of them were my team mates, brothers and sisters at Perris and some were based at other drop zones. That said, Robin, Bill, Dan BC, Melanie and most of the staff at Perris have even more.

NONE of those individuals wants to put ANY of their friends at risk by using an SOP for landing patterns that places them at a greater than what is normally considered to be the risk of being at any drop zone. NONE. To suggest otherwise is simply ridiculous. They're all doing their best.

As I've said before, there is something in the overall system of skydiving operations across the country that isn't quite right when it comes to worshiping our heros and allowing them exceptions. Unfortunately, this is anthropologically hard wired into our DNA. We have to consciously fight that and allow for no exceptions in that regard.

However, fighting the standard operating procedures established over decades and sadly written in blood at a particular DZ is not your answer.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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...true, but you're the only one who seems really hostile toward the people who support it, even in part.


OK.
In truth it's the FMD rule that galls, not the people.

It's the logic behind the FMD support that is, well... illogical.

Given the reasons and justifications presented so far, FMD creates more problems than it solves.

And on top of that, the reasons and justifications seem to change over time so it's hard to be really clear on what you guys really believe.

It's not really the people. I can't say it's YOU, or Bill, because I don't know you, or Bill. I only go by what is written....what else IS there?

You guys typically post good stuff. FMD isn't one of them. It's more than opinion.

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At Perris, it's really REALLY simple: If you want to land on the grass, follow FMD. If you don't like FMD's choice, land the way you want at one of the alternate landing sites


And now there's another thread started about how that creates problems in the alternate areas.

And there's more...multiple loads in the air...Which FMD do you follow if they come from different loads and in opposite directions?

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I just see numbers piling up at Perris and can't help but wonder, "why is it business as usual there?"


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What you think you see doesn't mean that's the way it is


I'll concede that I was a little too strong there.


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and, when you get right down to it, the hysteria over Perris Valley's FMD


Please...it's not Perris' FMD. It's any locations FMD rule.


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but it's systemically psychotic to demand system overhauls every time there's a statistically insignificant hiccup in the system.


Well, to be fair, we haven't seen anyone demanding system overhauls as yet. The discussion has been simply about the pros/cons of FMD.

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But at times like this, it's vital to put aside personal feelings that cloud better judgment when it comes to radically changing systems based on anecdotal, perceived or flat-out incorrect data.


Totally agreed. It's also important to set those feelings aside and be able to consider alternatives that have potential for improvement.

And THAT'S where the frustration and the perceived hostility comes in....when people refuse to work towards improvement and blindly cling to what has gone before.


Now, I fully realize that nothing I say will have any impact on Perris' SOPs. And so be it. I have stated my opinion of the FMD rule and provided reasons for that stance. I have presented my arguments (way too many times) and I have tried to understand the logic of FMD. I have put forth my counter-arguments and have been clear on them. That's all I can do and I have accomplished that goal.

Now it's food for thought. I hope FMD DZs will consider the arguments with logical, open minds and go from there.
My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

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As I've said before, there is something in the overall system of skydiving operations across the country that isn't quite right when it comes to worshiping our heros and allowing them exceptions.


It's ironic that you said this given the previous paragraphs in your post.


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However, fighting the standard operating procedures established over decades and sadly written in blood at a particular DZ is not your answer.



True enough to a degree. If one were 'fighting against' a particular DZ you may have had a point. At what point in time or how much blood should be spilled before one finally says, "Wait a minute. Could things be better and if so, how?"

Times, attitudes and technology change. Sometimes 'old school' just doesn't work as well as it did in the past. Even old dogs can learn new tricks, eh?
My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

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As I've said before, there is something in the overall system of skydiving operations across the country that isn't quite right when it comes to worshiping our heros and allowing them exceptions.


It's ironic that you said this given the previous paragraphs in your post.


Well, I'm glad you read the post. You may not have understood all of what I was trying to say, but at least you seem to have read it. If you find my above statement in some way ironic, I can only assume that means you believe I'm giving somebody some sort of "pass." Nothing could be further from the truth.


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However, fighting the standard operating procedures established over decades and sadly written in blood at a particular DZ is not your answer.


True enough to a degree. If one were 'fighting against' a particular DZ you may have had a point. At what point in time or how much blood should be spilled before one finally says, "Wait a minute. Could things be better and if so, how?"



I think if you look at any system created by anyone, you can probably find some way to improve it and especially if
your improvements are blue sky and completely theoretical in nature without any regard for the actual operating parameters involved.

To wit: I could easily fix the economy of the US if somebody just gave me a check for 10 trillion dollars.

In a similar vain, I read suggestions some people have made about "improving" some drop zones and wonder what the hell are they smoking.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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I think if you look at any system created by anyone, you can probably find some way to improve it and especially if your improvements are blue sky and completely theoretical in nature without any regard for the actual operating parameters involved.



Why sure! You got a theory? Investigate it and see what you come up with...that's the sane way of doing things. Your investigation would, of course, include the evaluation of the operating parameters involved.

The only caveat is that you have investigate on the current terms that apply and be able and willing to approach the problem from more than just one viewpoint.

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In a similar vain, I read suggestions some people have made about "improving" some drop zones and wonder what the hell are they smoking.



No doubt and haven't we all.
OTOH, in a similar vein, sometimes I read suggestions some people have made and wonder why not look into it....even if I don't see the relevance of it right off the bat.
My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

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I can only assume that means you believe I'm giving somebody some sort of "pass." Nothing could be further from the truth.



And, in my book, you've pretty much nailed the solution to many, many problems in the skydiving world.

Giving the "pass".
I may be wrong but I don't think so right now. I can't help but to imagine how much better things would be in many areas if nobody got the "pass". Letting your buddy or the skygod or the popular guy get away with stupid crap only encourages him AND OTHERS to do more of it.
My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

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I can only assume that means you believe I'm giving somebody some sort of "pass." Nothing could be further from the truth.



And, in my book, you've pretty much nailed the solution to many, many problems in the skydiving world.

Giving the "pass".
I may be wrong but I don't think so right now. I can't help but to imagine how much better things would be in many areas if nobody got the "pass". Letting your buddy or the skygod or the popular guy get away with stupid crap only encourages him AND OTHERS to do more of it.



On this we agree completely.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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Dan was in the landing area Saturday talking to everyone who didn't fly a standard pattern.



Give it a rest about the recent changes to DZ management practices. Dan should have been out there a long time ago.

How long do you expect him to continue?

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As a new jumper I had never heard of the first man sets the pattern idea, so it really confused me when all of a sudden people were landing in the opposite direction as planned, as part of the confusion and distraction i misjudged my landing distance requirement and ended up fracturing my ankle,

dropzones need to "plan better" and not assume that everyone knows everything, canopy and landing trainning probably needs improvement and stronger uspa trainning requirments

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I'm new to the sport .... in my home DZ ground controll set the pattern before bording the plane.



So, if you happen to visit a DZ that has the FMD rule, please be aware:

-Landing direction could change at the last possible minute.
-It could change even after that last possible minute.
-Be prepared to dodge those last-minute waggers who drive all over the sky chasing the guy that they think is the FMD.
-Keep your head on a swivel and be prepared to dodge the people who are focused on the FMD instead of the airspace around them even if tthey are not wagging.
-Be prepared to do downwinders regardless of windspeed.
-Be prepared to share that way-out-there landing space with the 22 others who don't want to land near that FMD guy either.
-Have 9-1-1 on speed dial.

Good luck.



It seems that at the very least Perris should be doing a thorough review of their procedures. I don't buy into the argument in the latest incident that it is simply perris "time in the bucket".

I don't have the knowledge or experience to agree or disagree with their current approach but that doesn't mean that people with the appropriate knowledge and familiarity with large dz's can't review and make recommendations in the interests of ensuring that safety is as good as it can be.
Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

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Anyone care to comment on the statistic that 83% of skydivers who died last year were D license holder?



The statistic, by itself, is near meaningless.
D License holders are generally the ones making more jumps.

Take a deck of cards. Shuffle it. Pick a card at random.

Every single time you pick a card, you have a 1 in 52 chance of picking the Ace of Spades. Every single time.

However, while it's possible that you could go hundreds of rounds and never pick the Ace of Spades, it's far more likely that eventually you will, regardless of what you may have been taught about "Gambler's Paradox." The ratio stays approximately the same averaged out over every round. Eventually you will almost certainly pick the Ace of Spades.

People with A licenses generally don't stay that way for very long. People with D license tend to stay that way for a very long time and accumulate far more jumps than they did as A licensed skydivers.



I think you made a leap of inference there and slightly missed the fine point of probability statistics. The deck of cards does not know how many times you have pulled a card. Neither does the Ace of spades. Every time you pull a card out of a fresh deck, your odds are 1:52. Every time.

In relation to your comment, an equal number of A, B, C and D licensed jumpers should die every year (given an equal number exists within each category). If there are more A licenses than others, there should be a greater number of dead A license holders at the end of each year.

For your argument to hold, the most prolific license in the sport should be a D license by the measure that 83% of jumpers hold a D license. I have done no research, but highly doubt that is the case. Even then, we are talking about pure probability without any consideration of skill, experience or maturity in the sport. If you factor those in, theoretically, D license holders would be the least likely to die per capita. The wind, ground, rig, etc. have no idea if it is your first jump or 10,000th. They don't care.
I know it just wouldnt be right to kill all the stupid people that we meet..

But do you think it would be appropriate to just remove all of the warning labels and let nature take its course.

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So the argument dismissing the 83% of fatalities last year is that (to take it to its logical conclusion) ~83% of skydives made were by D license holders?

Personally I'd be happy to avoid any DZ that has an FMD rule, not because I'm concerned about landing in any wind direction but because it presents a danger to me and others around me. I've never jumped at Perris so I don't know the unusual weather patterns there. To me, if you're getting winds switching that quickly from load to load, at a wind speed that would be dangerous to land down wind in, I'd say don't jump. What do I know though.



A resounding NO! In order for that logic to work, it must be mandatory that someone die every X number of jumps, regardless of skill, equipment maintenance, weather, decision making, etc. A penny flipped fifty times in a row that comes up heads every time is still 50% likely to come up heads (or tails) the next time because those are the only options and they are equally viable. The penny has no idea how many times it has been flipped.

There is no mandatory death in skydiving. None of the factors that go into a successful dive and landing have a mandatory fail...ever. Therefore, it is not logically supported to say that making more jumps increases your risk of failure.

I know people like to think this way. It seems intuitive. It is also wrong.

If this logic worked, there would be no need for accident investigations. The cause would always be law of probability. To look at fatalities this way assumes that all jumps, jumpers, equipment and conditions are equal on every jump.
I know it just wouldnt be right to kill all the stupid people that we meet..

But do you think it would be appropriate to just remove all of the warning labels and let nature take its course.

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Anyone care to comment on the statistic that 83% of skydivers who died last year were D license holder?



The statistic, by itself, is near meaningless.
D License holders are generally the ones making more jumps.

Take a deck of cards. Shuffle it. Pick a card at random.

Every single time you pick a card, you have a 1 in 52 chance of picking the Ace of Spades. Every single time.

However, while it's possible that you could go hundreds of rounds and never pick the Ace of Spades, it's far more likely that eventually you will, regardless of what you may have been taught about "Gambler's Paradox." The ratio stays approximately the same averaged out over every round. Eventually you will almost certainly pick the Ace of Spades.

People with A licenses generally don't stay that way for very long. People with D license tend to stay that way for a very long time and accumulate far more jumps than they did as A licensed skydivers.



I think you made a leap of inference there and slightly missed the fine point of probability statistics. The deck of cards does not know how many times you have pulled a card. Neither does the Ace of spades. Every time you pull a card out of a fresh deck, your odds are 1:52. Every time.

In relation to your comment, an equal number of A, B, C and D licensed jumpers should die every year (given an equal number exists within each category). If there are more A licenses than others, there should be a greater number of dead A license holders at the end of each year.

For your argument to hold, the most prolific license in the sport should be a D license by the measure that 83% of jumpers hold a D license. I have done no research, but highly doubt that is the case. Even then, we are talking about pure probability without any consideration of skill, experience or maturity in the sport. If you factor those in, theoretically, D license holders would be the least likely to die per capita. The wind, ground, rig, etc. have no idea if it is your first jump or 10,000th. They don't care.



But what is the probability that you will NOT have pulled an ace of spades at least once after 1,000 attempts? (answer, 3.7 x 10^-9). Meaning that after 1000 picks you have 99.9999996% likelihood of having pulled at least one ace of spades.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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