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NickDG

Number 100 . . .

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I wanted to mention that as BASE#'s grow expodentially, so will experiences, and hopefully knowledge. Hopefully the expodential growth of knowledge and experience will slow the rate of expodential grown in the list.
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Amen Bro. Regular jumping also shows this trend. Let's hope it carries over.
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I'm back in the USA!!

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When I start in 1999, the fatality number was around 40, after 7 years, 60 more.
What s goin on??
My friend says : "Flying is not about good pilots, is about OLD pilots.."
Something is wrong outthere.
BASE jumping needs to be about beauty and flying again.
Lets put the % down!!!
Nico

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When I start in 1999, the fatality number was around 40, after 7 years, 60 more.
What s goin on??
Lets put the % down!!!



If you look at my and Chris' graphs, you'll see that the fatality rate is not changing that much. It's just the number of jumpers is growing exponentially (actually, superexponentially).

It took 18 years for the first 50 deaths, just 7 for the next 50, and will take just 5-7 years for the next 100... etc.

So the answer to your question, "what's going on??" is, "Nothing. Math 101."

Yuri
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Time and action brings experience. More jumpers means that there are more jumps beig made and more experiences occuring.

Instead of having 5 people attempting to create everything, you have 500 people creating. Hence, it takes less time for the experience to develop or if the same time is expended by each person, the collective experience pool is built at a much faster rate.

So, you are correct.

Another poster made the comparision with skydiving. BASE is a bit different in that the structure is much more fluid and the ability to control who learns what and who does what is a lot more difficult.

What do I mean? If we learn something new in skydiving, we can institute it via regulation and enforcement by qualified people. i.e. instructors can force people to follow rules set by parachuting organisations. There will always be holes in the system but 99% of people are covered.

BASE is a different beast. In theory, anyone can do almost anything they want, almost anywhere they want. So instead of forcing people to "be safe", the participants have to choose to "be safe". The sport also attracts a higher percentage of "free spirited anarchists" who increase the likelihood that incidents will happen.

So, it is true to say that the increasing numbers will increase the skill base and advance the sport. But it will also continue to attract a percentage that will not follow or heed the learnings. The other factor is that many members of todays time deficient society will not absorb all the learnings.
Stay Safe - Have Fun - Good Luck

The above could be crap, thought provoking, useful, or . . But not personal. You decide.

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" So, it is true to say that the increasing numbers will increase the skill base and advance the sport."
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NO. I do not agree. BASE survival skills and BASE equipment is at It's Peak.
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"The other factor is that many members of today's time deficient society will not absorb all the learning's."
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YES

Diluting BASE with fast growth along with higher population of jumpers will only water-down. More BASE jumpers from more new-found FJC's and Wanabe BASE instructors. More mass of instruction that is Not emphasizing the basic core of what is most important in survival for new jumpers who want or think they need to BASE jump.
More BASE instruction from an expanding BASE population. It's NEVER been so easy to become a BASE jumper. It's getting easier because there are few that will say NO to teach. If someone does say NO. There is another in a line that will say YES.
The basics of survival. The basics of Canopy skills. The basic weeding-out and judgment calls to be made for those that should not BASE or just hold off and wait. Is Diluted for mass quantity. The mandatory basics of Surviving BASE are gone. Never in BASE history have so many jumpers NEVER Seen, Packed or Jumped a 7-Cell Canopy. Never have so many known so Little of Basic Container and Canopy Rigging until they Wanted BASE. BASE Canopy accuracy and the Assessment of Object and Assessment of your primary and secondary landing area choices are nowhere to be found.
So I agree totally. with your statement. ..."many members of today's time deficient society will not absorb all the learning's."
.

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NO. I do not agree. BASE survival skills and BASE equipment is at It's Peak.



That's because you're a crusty old timer. ;)

With the ever increasing numbers, a reducing percentage but growing absolute amount will actually contribute to the sport in positive ways.

i.e. 10 years ago there was 500 jumpers of which 100 contributed to the technical advancement of the sport. Now there is 5000 jumpers and 200 people contributing to the sport. in 10 years it will be 20000 jumpers with 500 people contributing to the sport. Your assertion is that the gene pool is diluting. On average, this may be a correct assumption. But the total number of people contributing to the sport is increasing.
Stay Safe - Have Fun - Good Luck

The above could be crap, thought provoking, useful, or . . But not personal. You decide.

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this statement:
" With the ever increasing numbers, a reducing percentage but growing absolute amount will actually contribute to the sport in positive ways."
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" contribute to the sport in positive ways "
How ? & What ?
I feel that the advancement of BASE survival skills and BASE equipment is at It's Peak. There will be very little that will and that can be done to either from this point in time . Canopy advancement and BASE equipment will not change except for very small enhancements i.e. Venting, Trim or Cut for Canopy & small enhancements in equipment like WS & Tracking-Suits Or Container Systems i.e. Big-Grabs, Vented PC's or Container Systems designed for specific BASE purposes. Also of course there will always be the occasional gifted BASE jumper/athlete that makes the maximum most efficient use of what is taught of BASE survival techniques.
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I feel that the words, "contribute to " will Not be a huge breakthrough or Advancement but "contribute to " Will and Must Be what is handed-down hand and mouth from BASE jumper to the ones wanting BASE.
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" ...i.e. 10 years ago there was 500 jumpers of which 100 contributed to the technical advancement of the sport. Now there is 5000 jumpers and 200 people contributing to the sport. in 10 years it will be 20000 jumpers with 500 people contributing to the sport. Your assertion is that the gene pool is diluting. On average, this may be a correct assumption. But the total number of people contributing to the sport is increasing. "
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This statement sounds good in theory but the "Natural Order of " applies also to BASE. "Dilution of the Species". species being BASE jumpers. Truly the word Dilution speaks for it self. Dilution is Weakening, Thinning, Watering Down, Darwinizing. That is " The Natural Order" and not of Things-to-Come but what is happening right at this moment.

The only way to Contribute to the Advancement of BASE and the only way to survive is to play a self-preserving role in what is handed down and taught as core belief of what is "BASE survival skills "
.
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