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Number 100 . . .

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Yuri, I'm impressed by the amount of free time you have! Thanks for the math.
____________________________________
I'm back in the USA!!

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Man are you bored! Go pack or something.

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Not everyone on "the list" has a BASE number, so your data is kinda screwy.

You need to take only those with BASE numbers on the list and compare them to the current BASE number.
Get in - Get off - Get away....repeat as neccessary

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Not everyone on "the list" has a BASE number, so your data is kinda screwy.

You need to take only those with BASE numbers on the list and compare them to the current BASE number.

The percentage of BASE# holders to total# of BASErs worldwide is getting lower nowadays for a number of reasons including:

* More jumpers completeing FJC's than applying for BASE#'s and this figure rising yearly

* Given it's mainly English-speaking jumpers bothering with BASE#'s ,and BASE is growing across all languages, the percentage of #holders gets smaller as the sport grows.

Because of this, Yuri's exponential is actually conservative 'cause it relies on the percentage of BASErs that hold BASE#'s to be the same over the given time period.

There's not enough numbers/figures available in the "BASE# only" equation that you suggest to make as good a projection as what has already been given here.

g.
"Altitude is birthright to any individual who seeks it"

.

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exponential is actually conservative

It is. The growth over the last 15 years has been superexponential -- exponential with increasing growth rate.

Attached is the growth rate since 1990. From 2002 to 2005, it increased from 8% to 13%.

At 13% rate, the number of BASE jumpers doubles every 5.3 years.

That means, we might see #200 in 2011.

Paraphrasing Nick's nugget, we may say that "Numbers 101-150 are walking around among us right now, and numbers 151-200 will start BASE in the next 5 years, but they will all be dead by the year 2011. Please, if you see these people - "Next Hundred" - pull them aside and tell them to slow down . . ."

Yuri
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I estimate the numbers are doubling every 8.3 years. I estimate a constant annual fatality rate to be 1/10 relative to the BASE numbers. I estimate the true fatality risk to be 1/15 to 1/30 relative to the total number of BASE jumpers. Further data is needed to do a full statistical analysis.
Looks like a death sandwich without the bread - Steve Deadman Morrell, BASE 174

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To: Calvin19 & Others

The reason I asked the “WHY” question is NOT because I wanted someone to convince me or talk to me like a whuffo who has no respect for what you do… It was because I left Idaho after 7 jumps knowing that BASE was not what I thought it was and thinking it was not worth it….only to come home and find that I still think about it, a lot!

I see buildings and antennas and think about their altitude, deployment methods, and landing strategy….I even dream about it sometimes….so I guess I was hoping that those of you who are much more experienced and maybe smarter could have help me understand this.

In the literature I read before my FJC it said while BASE is very much an individual sport, us humans are pack animals who often need others for access, knowledge, and support or medical treatment after injuries/tragedies…

As for your description of the human need for adventure, our spirit’s desire to breathe, and the importance of living a life beyond work and consumption --- you are talking to the choir. I left a damn good job because they were dicks about giving me time off to jump, I have lived without cable for 10+ years, don’t own a cell phone, have a 33 year old car without A/C, raced dirt bikes, rode street bikes, been smashed on a street bike, competed in a kung fu tournament, rock climbed, did 1,400 jumps in less than 5 years, and still yearn to find new experiences.

To: Dmcoc84, Amanduh, Inzite, Hookitt, 460

Thank you for trying to put into words your ideas and feelings about something so important and personal. I really appreciated and enjoyed your posts.

To: Yuri

As an economist who has done trend analysis, I enjoy your graphs and think your predictions seem sound given the limited data set and numerous future unknowns.

To: Three of you who sent me PMs

Thanks a lot, I appreciate your time and input!
Rigger, Skydiver, BASE Jumper, Retired TM

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The almost linear graph (fatalities vs. BASE #'s) is very illustrative.

Given that according to the poll the ratio of total number of BASE jumpers to those with BASE #'s is about 1.4, the fatality risk is about 1/15, or 7%.

Every 15th of us will die BASE jumping... On a positive note, the rest 14 will most likely die at age 100 making love to a hot 18y.o. babe.

Yuri
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The remaining part of the analysis is to find the total number of active jumpers instead of total throughout history. That would lower the number of jumpers and increase the fatality rate.
Looks like a death sandwich without the bread - Steve Deadman Morrell, BASE 174

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The remaining part of the analysis is to find the total number of active jumpers instead of total throughout history. That would lower the number of jumpers and increase the fatality rate.

I agree.
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The remaining part of the analysis is to find the total number of active jumpers instead of total throughout history. That would lower the number of jumpers and increase the fatality rate.

aren't modern jumpers more active?
DON'T PANIC
The lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.
sloppy habits -> sloppy jumps -> injury or worse

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Another interesting thing about your graph is that the distance between points is increasing (reflecting the exponential growth of numbers with time). If one were to make an animation with points being added one by one, we'll see the point accelerating like a rocket through the sky...

It's only a matter of time that this ever accelerating and growing rocket is going to hit popular legal sites and destroy them.
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Tom,
sorry man, i agree i was preaching to the choir.
but, being me, thats what i do.
I just dont like it when people excuse themselves from the sport because its "only 2 seconds of freefall and a short canopy ride" i just think that its a crappy way out of it.
so, sorry man, i know you didnt mean it like that, but i just got annoyed sitting in my house for the 124thish day, and i fealt like talking on a soapy box thing.
Be well, You and I, Us, will always be Base jumpers.
no more advice, none of that should come from me.
im going to spray paint toggles.
be well.

-SPACE-

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I'm a unclear on the 1/15 chance of dying in BASE. Does that mean a BASE jumper has a 1/15 likelihood of dying in BASE in any given year of BASE jumping, all other things being equal?

If the above is correct, then my chances of making it to the ripe old age of 100 depend on how many years I spend BASE jumping. If my BASE career lasts for 8 years, then my chances of dying a BASE death are somewhere in the 1 - (14/15)^8 = 0.42. So I have a 42% chance of dying during an 8-year-long BASE career.

Those aren't very good odds.

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It is. The growth over the last 15 years has been superexponential -- exponential with increasing growth rate.

Attached is the growth rate since 1990. From 2002 to 2005, it increased from 8% to 13%.

At 13% rate, the number of BASE jumpers doubles every 5.3 years.

That means, we might see #200 in 2011.

Paraphrasing Nick's nugget, we may say that "Numbers 101-150 are walking around among us right now, and numbers 151-200 will start BASE in the next 5 years, but they will all be dead by the year 2011. Please, if you see these people - "Next Hundred" - pull them aside and tell them to slow down . . ."

Yuri

From a similar perspective, one jump in several thousand (maybe 5000, maybe 10000 - that's not the point) ends with a fatality.

Unfortunately, with significantly more jumps being done (superexponential growth), the sport will have to live with higher number of fatalities. The majority of recent fatalities were referred to as accidents, and did not seem to be really preventable (i.e. two accidents in Switzerland, close tracking in Norway, TF etc.) and this points to a certain baseline "inherent" death rate in BASE, just like everywhere else...

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- Lastly, if you are a skydiver now, and interested in BASE, and if the person who’s helping you says, “Cool, you’re going to love it,” then turn and run as far and as fast as your can back to the DZ. Instead find a mentor that says, “no way, pal,” the first 10 times you ask them for help . . .

Ain't that the truth ruth......................

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Well, I am not all that bright when it comes to numbers. However, I seem to remember a saying along the lines of "There are statistics, then there are more statistics and then ther are just plain lies". In fact, manipulating numbers we can probably demonstrate that 1=3. With my limited experience in BASE, I can not believe that people stand at the edge of an object with a calculator working out that they have a 76% chance of survival. Maybe I have no idea what drives people and they enjoy and seek the near death experience, but personally, I like the odds to be on my side. Does it excite people to say "Hey, somone is going to die in the next 30 jumps and I am jumping tonight?" Of course, the aspect of danger and the hightened awareness what is happening around you is exciting, but in my humble opinion, I am not focused on death or serious injury, but the satisfaction I get from the jump. As you can probably tell, I struggle with EXCEL and in particular in producing fancy graphs.

Mick

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This is how the late great DW would have done it.

1 - Find 15 friends (or anything with a pulse and insane desire to fall off stuff).
2 - make up 15 straws and shorten one of them.
3 - make the short one easiest to access and stick out a little more than the others.
4 - when the inevitable happens and someone else draws the short straw, make a huge song and dance out of it. That way, they feel pressure to continue the trend of short straw drawers having an accident.
5 - psych them out on a regular basis, but especially before the next jump.
6 - sing the "bounce, bounce, bounce" song just before they start their exit count.
7 - once they go in, you are home and hosed. There are 14 humanoids left and one spare rig. Enjoy your jumping future.

Stay Safe - Have Fun - Good Luck

The above could be crap, thought provoking, useful, or . . But not personal. You decide.

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Unfortunately, with significantly more jumps being done (superexponential growth), the sport will have to live with higher number of fatalities. The majority of recent fatalities were referred to as accidents, and did not seem to be really preventable and this points to a certain baseline "inherent" death rate in BASE, just like everywhere else...

More deaths are certain. But "not really preventable"??? You are totally and utterly incorrect.

Based on the info on the list (which may be incorrect ???):

#100 - the proverbial "pin check". Actual bridle check.
#99 - incorrect initiation of deployment sequence (p/c throw).
#98 - unsure, but too close to wall. #43 had an unstable exit followed by incorrect recovery technique which left him too close to the wall. That wall gobbles people up - jumpers and climbers alike.
#97 - slider up short delay with it's inherent issues leading to off heading.
#96 - unstable exit.
#95 - reaction time, 40 jumps, BASE school.
#94 - packing aid left on p/c.
#93 - OD - the BASE equivalent of an OD!!!
#92 - unstable exit and heading control.
#91 - unstable at deployment time - low pull.
#89 - no pull a/c instability on WS.
#88 - plan Z jump instead of walkign away.
#87 - unstable + low pull.
#86 - poor visibility + low pull.

Now, some of these could happen to any of us.

I have an old saying which I think is apt in this discussion. "Each incident was preventable, every accident is not".

In laymans terms, we usually can tell what happened in hindsight, but it is hard to stop all bad things happening using foresight.

So the best solution is to do your best. Arm yourself with knowledge, skills, experiences, and mentors who can positively contribute to your BASE career. Do things the right way. Stay safe. Have Fun. make your own luck.
Stay Safe - Have Fun - Good Luck

The above could be crap, thought provoking, useful, or . . But not personal. You decide.

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The time has come for change BIG change some good some bad.
The point of no return what a rush.

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Arm yourself with knowledge, skills, experiences, and mentors who can positively contribute to your BASE career. Do things the right way. Stay safe. Have Fun. make your own luck.

you are a wise man.

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Incidents/Hazards - hey, here are afew definitions (sorry, last job)

Incident - The occurrence of a hazard that might have progressed to an accident, but did not.

Hazard - Potential source of harm

Accident - An unintended event or sequence of events that causes harm

Harm- Death, physical injury or damage to the health of people, or damage to property or the environment.

Hazard Identification - The process of identifying and listing the hazards and accidents associated with a system.

So, an incident might highlight areas that lead to an accident, but both are preventable if we do correct/appropiate hazard identification. Problem tends to be unless you know about likely hazards, your risk analysis goes to pot and so on (i.e. those bastards shoot back, which pinstripe suit did not anticipate). It is sad but true, that the best hazard analysis in the world is not good enough until it can be beefed up by 'lessons identified', i.e. through incidents and hopefully few accidents.

Personally, all these numbers, graphs and definitions make me think of work, which is something I leave behind when I head out. Then again, some people might think this is not the appropiate 'scientific' and 'ordered' approach one should take when it comes to BASE. Undoubtedly I will learn with time, but for the time being I enjoy the freedom and leave my calculator and definition handbook on my desk as I leave work.

Just my penny

Mick

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Unfortunately, with significantly more jumps being done (superexponential growth), the sport will have to live with higher number of fatalities. The majority of recent fatalities were referred to as accidents, and did not seem to be really preventable and this points to a certain baseline "inherent" death rate in BASE, just like everywhere else...

More deaths are certain. But "not really preventable"??? You are totally and utterly incorrect.

Based on the info on the list (which may be incorrect ???):

#100 - the proverbial "pin check". Actual bridle check.
#99 - incorrect initiation of deployment sequence (p/c throw).
#98 - unsure, but too close to wall. #43 had an unstable exit followed by incorrect recovery technique which left him too close to the wall. That wall gobbles people up - jumpers and climbers alike.
#97 - slider up short delay with it's inherent issues leading to off heading.
#96 - unstable exit.
#95 - reaction time, 40 jumps, BASE school.
#94 - packing aid left on p/c.
#93 - OD - the BASE equivalent of an OD!!!
#92 - unstable exit and heading control.
#91 - unstable at deployment time - low pull.
#89 - no pull a/c instability on WS.
#88 - plan Z jump instead of walkign away.
#87 - unstable + low pull.
#86 - poor visibility + low pull.

Now, some of these could happen to any of us.

I have an old saying which I think is apt in this discussion. "Each incident was preventable, every accident is not".

That is roughly my point, every accident is not preventable. But the word preventable is not a right one. Perhaps avoidable is better. They were bound to happen to someone. Unstable exits are unavoidable, 180s are unavoidable (and not completely preventable either) ..but most of the time things will end up OK.

Even then.. can you prevent (=assure it will not happen) things like "unstable at deployment time" or "incorrect initiation of deployment sequence" or "unstable exit". One certainly can readjust procedures to prevent "packing aid left on p/c" or try to become wiser not to "plan Z jump instead of walkign away".

As much as we would like to rationalize it away, there is rolling the dice component in every jump and more jumps means that it will fall on black more often.

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In laymans terms, we usually can tell what happened in hindsight, but it is hard to stop all bad things happening using foresight.

So the best solution is to do your best. Arm yourself with knowledge, skills, experiences, and mentors who can positively contribute to your BASE career. Do things the right way. Stay safe. Have Fun. make your own luck.

Jason certainly did.

Maybe the luck bucket really gets refilled a bit as you fill the one with skill?

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Regarding accidents: I might go in tomorrow. Well, maybe not at the rate I am currently jumping at. Anyway, if I do something dumb. I don't want you to do the same thing. OK!!! That is what I am getting at.

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Personally, all these numbers, graphs and definitions make me think of work, which is something I leave behind when I head out. Then again, some people might think this is not the appropiate 'scientific' and 'ordered' approach one should take when it comes to BASE.

Each to their own. We are all adults, we are free to make decisions. And we are each responsible for the outcome. You, me, everyone else.

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Problem tends to be unless you know about likely hazards, your risk analysis goes to pot

You have the opportunity to know most of the hazards. The fundamentals are out there. You choose to learn them or not.

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the best hazard analysis in the world is not good enough until it can be beefed up by 'lessons identified', i.e. through incidents and hopefully few accidents.

Yes. Most potential stuff ups have already happened. Your objective is to learn from others experiences. Not to go through them all yourself.

OK. So lets cut the bullshit. This might be a nugget.

Leave your brain at work, and your head will make less mess when . . . . .

Nobody becomes brilliant / excellent at something by chance and without hard work.

BASE is not the place to stop thinking.

Chill out after the jump.
Stay Safe - Have Fun - Good Luck

The above could be crap, thought provoking, useful, or . . But not personal. You decide.