0
JaapSuter

Surviving BASE

Recommended Posts

Where's the "I don't want to think about it" option?
"If you can keep your head when all around you have lost theirs, then you probably haven't understood the seriousness of the situation."
David Brent

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you toss a coin 99,999 times and it comes up heads every time, the odds of it being heads on the next toss are still 50/50.

'Statistics are like a lamp post to a drunken man - they're used for leaning on and not illumination' ;)

Al

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

If you toss a coin 99,999 times and it comes up heads every time, the odds of it being heads on the next toss are still 50/50.

'Statistics are like a lamp post to a drunken man - they're used for leaning on and not illumination' ;)

Al





If the probability of throwing heads is 0.5 (50% or 1 in 2), then that is the probability of throwing heads on any one coin toss.

The probability of throwing heads two times in row is: 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 (1 in 4).

The probability of throwing heads 1000 times in a row is: 0.5^1000 = 9.33263618503219 x 10-302

The probability of throwing heads 99 999 times in a row is: 0.5^99999 = so small that both an Engineering Calculator and Excel rounded it to zero

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

The probability of throwing heads 1000 times in a row is: 0.5^1000 = 9.33263618503219 x 10-302



And if you already have 998 in a row your probability of reaching 1000 is now 0.25. That seems like the bit most people have a problem with.
Do you want to have an ideagasm?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Agreed.

But the probability of you having gotten to 998 heads in a row is 1 in 3.7331 x 10 ^ 301 , which if I were to write it in this format: p = x in y, it would look like this:

1 in 37331000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

So does it really matter that the probability to get to 2 heads in a row would be 0.25 if you would never get to 998 in a row in the first place due to the ridiculously low probability?
:S

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So what's the probability of throwing 10 heads followed by a tail then a further 10heads?

answer : just fuck right off twat i'm trying to get my head around what to do if this opens with a 90 right.

;)

ian

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Imagine some hypothetical guy from the future shows up and says...

"You're going to die on one of your next N jumps!"



Thanks for fucking up my wake n' bake buzz, asshole.

359
"Now I've settled down,
in a quiet little town,
and forgot about everything"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

"You're going to die on one of your next N jumps!"

that's the reason we don't jump from N's :|
scissors beat paper, paper beat rock, rock beat wingsuit - KarlM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sorry to say its a shitty poll:P
first off if a BASEjumper dont trust his own instinct he/she shouldnt jump.

If a person walks up to me and tells me that im gonna die on the next jump(whith out taking the jump into aspect,and taking its a person might not knowing about BASE)..
I would ask him to make a bet whith me.. if i die he can take my mony in my pocket if i live he buys me a pint..

do i need to say that i voted"im not gonna quit"

Stay safe
Stefan Faber

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi, correct me if I'm wrong Jaap. But I think that what you’re trying to say is that, do enough base jumps and eventually it will bite you in the arse. Knowing this where do you draw the line, how many jumps are you prepared to do?

I think it is realistically possible to due 100,000 + jumps of the Perrine and be fine. You would just need to take a bit of care, not get cocky and maintain your gear.

I also think that if you do 1000 jumps off an under hung, 300ft cliff, you will be lucky to get away without a cliff strike and therefore lucky to be alive.

I think that there are only a small number of people with over a 1000 base jumps (26). I think in 10 years time a 1000 jumps will not be a remarkable achievement and there will be 100’s of jumpers to reach this level. I think the reason why there are so few people with over a 1000 jumps is down to the amount of active jumpers in the past over the last 10 years. Just how many people were actually jumping that much.

So I think getting back to your poll, it's really down to the individual person on how risky base is. If you push it hard, you should be aware of the risks and take on board that if you keep pushing it hard, you are lightly to get into trouble.
Make the right choice’s, aim to go long not hard, and I think that there is no reason you can't jump for the next 50 years and have every chance of making it.

George
http://georgechurchill.blogspot.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

In Reply To
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I wouldn't quit.... Ever.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Do you realize what you're saying? So the guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die on your next jump."

You're still going to jump...:S

when did you bacome religius? how can a person tell about the furture?:S

im whith coco no person is telling me to step up or down i make my own dessision based on my experience and the risk i find in the jump.


would you jump whith no gear from 300ft if a person told you that you would die next day if you didnt??


Stay safe
Stefan Faber

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

So does it really matter that the probability to get to 2 heads in a row would be 0.25 if you would never get to 998 in a row in the first place due to the ridiculously low probability?



Course it doesn't. It's just the bit that people don't understand when they say things like "Because you haven't been injured for ages it makes you far more likely to die on your next jump.".

I honestly don't give a toss about stats because they can't tell you what's going to happen in the real world, whereas some people seem to think they control whats going to happen.
Do you want to have an ideagasm?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ha ha first saw your post after i responded Jaap.. i like your style Per:ph34r:B|

Stay safe
Stefan Faber

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


Do you realize what you're saying? So the guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die on your next jump."

You're still going to jump...:S



I think it depends on how high you value your jumping.

Imagine this:

After the horrific accident with the space-shuttle...had somebody come up to you, and offered you a ride into space in the next shuttle, even though there was a 99% chance it would go wrong again.

What would you say?

I know I would take my chances...and a lot of people in here probably would....does that mean I'm crazy?
JC
FlyLikeBrick
I'm an Athlete?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Imagine some hypothetical guy from the future shows up and says...

"You're going to die on one of your next N jumps!"


Loopholes and paradoxes aside, assume he is speaking the truth. What is the biggest N for which you would quit BASE?


this post shows great formatting skills!

it appears to be a rather cumbersome attempt to analyze the risk/reward ratio for each jumper (a.k.a. cost benefit analysis...). those choosing a lower value are signalling the importance of jumping. those choosing a higher number are admitting they have priorities outside of BASE (such as a family, job, etc.).

everyone must choose their own path through life...
DON'T PANIC
The lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.
sloppy habits -> sloppy jumps -> injury or worse

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

those choosing a lower value are signalling the importance of jumping. those choosing a higher number are admitting they have priorities outside of BASE (such as a family, job, etc.).


WRONG

I just dont belive that people can tell when i die..
I do belive i will survive each jump i make whith out injuryes no matter the bust fact im not braking bones just like that..

Its up to me to judge when to jump and when to back off. no person will ever beabel to tell me so(taking non BASEjumpers but "angels or gosts or what ever you should call that).

A jumper can say "dude that aint clever you gonna kill yourself on that" then ill reconsidder if i should do the jump. but if example my mom says im gonna die then i will estimate that my experience for that subject is bigger than hers therefore she cant tell if it can be done..

I has 2 kids of my own a lovely wife anf´d her 2 kids,loosing any of thouse would be the worst for me ever that inkludes killing myself.. but none of them can say if i should do a jump or not..

Stay safe
Stefan Faber

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

When did you become religius? How can a person tell about the furture?



One doesn't have to be religious to engage in philosophical thought experiments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

philosophical thought experiments.





philosophical thought experiments.
philosophical thought experiments.
philosophical thought experiment
philosophical through experience


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

26 ;)



Not that many anyway. Others retired before rolling the dice 1000 times? Or are too young to have rolled the dice 1000 times? Or...

The dice is not exactly one in six, but is not one in a million either.

PS. By rolling the dice I mean that there is alway an element of unpredictability and not that it's all crapshoot.

Jaap described in great detail two close calls he had in 82 jumps. It's close to a 100 option in his poll and rather far from the 1000 option.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

I just dont belive that people can tell when i die..



That's why it is a 'hypothetical' guy from the future. Lots of people believe BASE jumping is suicide and yet you engage in it. Don't let your beliefs stop you from thinking outside the box...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would kill the guy who talks that smack to me!
Looks like a death sandwich without the bread - Steve Deadman Morrell, BASE 174

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Lots of people believe BASE jumping is suicide


which is why they mostlikely says it will kill us by the next jump..

try doing it all 180degree
Now BASEjumping is a national sport but football is for thouse weirdows think about them they can get hurt running after that stupied ball,whats the meaning...

BASEjumping is only a extreme sport as most people dont do it..

look at that island(cant rember the name) were people has bungeejumped for decades now and then people is getting injuryed or killed but as all of them is doing it its not that bad,i even saw a 3 years old kid jumping off aprox 30ft just like that...

I do belive that if a person makes a statement about a jump will kill you you has 2 things to considder

#1 is this person familiar whith gear the object you etc etc

or
#2 is the person a "outsider" not knowing about this sport and its risk

to me the #3 'hypothetical' guy from the future does not exist therefore i put him into group #2

I might die on that jump but not as he said i would so.

Quote

Don't let your beliefs stop you from thinking outside the box...



okay...
in case this guy show up how do i then tell him different from group 1 and 2 up there,im sure quikly can tell if he belong to group 1,in that case i will reconsidder the jump.
But i cant tell if is a futurboy or just a person that knows im gonna die..

Im not having a box,but my box is limited by the walls i know and see.
In case this futurboy showes up as an angel whith wings and stuff i either
1 seek help as it aint tru
or
2 admit that ill start belive.. if i do so i promise i wont do the jump

Stay safe
Stefan Faber

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
0