Aug 17, 2012, 10:30 AM
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Good afternoon all!
I was looking at the fatalities database on http://www.dropzone.com/fatalities/ and noticed the graph from "Total Fatalities since January 1, 2004". From what it shows it seems like there is a steady rise in fatalities.
With new technology, refined teaching, and regulations is there a reason why there is a steady rise? Please note that the graph ends at 2010. However, the trend suggests it is still rising at a steady pace. Can you please give your insist as to why this is so?
The graph is a total fatality graph, so it's not showing that there's a rise in the number of fatalities/year, but that the total number of fatalities continues to increase. So long as there are fatalities each year that graph will continue to trend upwards.
Year over year, it varies, but tends to stay roughlyconstant (though it's hard to derive any statistical significance from a relatively small set of data). What you'll notice is that it's not that the number of fatalities changes, it's the type of fatality. Years ago, it used to be no pull fatalities and gear malfunctions that cause most of the deaths. Now it's low turns and canopy collisions. Gear-related malfunctions tend to be more related to improper maintenance/use or improper execution of emergency procedures, not true failures of the gear.
Just goes to show that skydivers are creative and will figure out new ways to kill themselves.
With new technology, refined teaching, and regulations is there a reason why there is a steady rise?
I call it the Nerfing of the sport, Bill Booth would call it his third law of skydiving.
Essentially the more accesible and "safer" the sport becomes, the lower the skill, judgement, and intelligence levels required to participate are, and when subsequently the safety net breaks down, the result is people who can't handle dynamic situations.
With new technology, refined teaching, and regulations is there a reason why there is a steady rise?
I call it the Nerfing of the sport, Bill Booth would call it his third law of skydiving.
Essentially the more accesible and "safer" the sport becomes, the lower the skill, judgement, and intelligence levels required to participate are, and when subsequently the safety net breaks down, the result is people who can't handle dynamic situations.
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I know where you stand on the issue but I have a thought as I read your post. Interested in your response.
Do we have to wait until the number of WS fatlaities reach a suitable number to do soemthing. If I use the canopy issue as an example. Imagine if someone tried to do something about canopy before the stats started to spike. It would have been fought saying the stats do not warrant it. I have heard that USPA was late to the party with canopy education and I agree But:
If we had a crystal ball and see that maybe (speculation) maybe WS fatalities will rise in the future, wouldnt it be great to do something before that happens. Although, if done correctly the WS stats will stay very low, causing those to say we didnt need it to argue. It seems like a big catch 22.
There is no way to prove something worked. The B license prof card is an example. Who knows maybe canopy fatlaities will stay the same, but without it there might have been a rise. We will never know if we saved lives.
Am I analyzing it to closely? Sorry just trying to get a grip on the bigger picture.
Above the total fatalities graph is a section that lists "Fatalities by Year." (See attachment)
It clearly shows that known worldwide fatalities declined approximately 21 percent from 71 in 2004 to 56 in 2011, and just 25 so far in 2012.
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How many are poorly trained wingsuiters?
LOL...
How many were wingsuiters, period?
In the "other" category (78 total fatalities), there are two wingsuit fatalities: Eli's 2009 too-low-to-make-it-over-a-ridge and a 2012 Croatian low-pull in a wingsuit.
Dunno about the Croat but Eli had 15,000 jumps and several hundred wingsuit jumps.
Two wingsuit fatalities out of 750+.... Yeah, we really need to take care of this crisis by creating a whole new bureaucracy.
Funny thing is, there are three tails strike/aircraft collision fatalities in the "other" category -- none of which involved the heinous horrendous hideous wingsuit.
I know where you stand on the issue but I have a thought as I read your post. Interested in your response.
Do we have to wait until the number of WS fatlaities reach a suitable number to do soemthing.
I can think of a whole lot of things we could regulate on the basis of "what possibly might be at some indeterminate time in the future". On the whole I think that is a poor basis for imposing regulations.
The data we have do not suggest that wingsuit flying by poorly trained newbies is a serious safety issue except in the minds of a few prophets of doom. There are other safety concerns in skydiving that have a lot of real data indicating a problem.
"And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but perceivest not the beam that is in thine own eye?", Luke 6:41
However, there was a wingsuit tail strike every 29 days last year.
And on its face that is a legitimate concern, which can be easily and simply addressed by making sure everyone is really really REALLY clear on keeping their wings closed until one second after exit and leave it at that. On the USPA BOD thread on this subject I proposed a solution set for this issue, to wit:
a separate wingsuit waiver that says "I understand how critically important it is to not open my wings until one second after exit, and I hereby promise and contractually agree as a condition of being able to wingsuit at this DZ that I or my heirs will pay for any damage to the aircraft if I violate this promise."
And put a sign next to the Pavlov Light that says "Wingsuiters: Do NOT open wings until one second after exit."
Heck, since at most places the wingsuiters sit near the pilot and are last out, you could even give each one a ticket on each load with the same words as the sign -- and right before they exit, they give the ticket to the pilot so they're less likely to forget -- and any excuse that they did forget is met with derision.
No bureaucracy needed.
Moreover, you say about one tail strike a month.
What's your sample? One year doesn't mean ****.
Two or three years in a row of increasing frequency culminating in the one-a-month stat, then maybe you're on to something.
But let's stipulate that your one-a-month figure is a valid read on what's going on. The next part of the statistical analysis has to include:
Did these tailstrikes happen at 12 different DZs -- or were there multiple strikes at a few?
On what aircraft did these tailstrikes occur? Multiple types or a predominant type?
What kindof DZ -- large or small?
Of these tailstrikes, how many happened to low-time wingsuiters versus experienced wingsuiters? As with swooping and other open-canopy fatalities, it may be that the mad skillz set is hitting tails with equal or greater frequency than the low-timers.
Finally, how many of these tailstrikes have happened at DWE's DZ? A raft of them there would certainly help explain several things about that "proposal" of his.
As far as I know, none of the above questions are part of the debate at the moment. This information may already exist, but it's sure not showing up in the discussion (especially that last part) -- and until it does, the whole debate is an attempt to create a political reality, not deal with a physical reality.
Regardless of the answers or sample size, the solution is the same: Educate wingsuiters -- and every other jumper too -- that no wingsuiter opens his wings until s/he's one second out of the plane, period.
In the "other" category (78 total fatalities), there are two wingsuit fatalities: Eli's 2009 too-low-to-make-it-over-a-ridge and a 2012 Croatian low-pull in a wingsuit.
I've not read the source, but there has been more than those two. At least one person fell out of the gear at pull time and another inexperienced WS didn't pull. This is just from the top of my head, I'm sure there are more.
In the "other" category (78 total fatalities), there are two wingsuit fatalities: Eli's 2009 too-low-to-make-it-over-a-ridge and a 2012 Croatian low-pull in a wingsuit.
I've not read the source, but there has been more than those two. At least one person fell out of the gear at pull time and another inexperienced WS didn't pull. This is just from the top of my head, I'm sure there are more.
Concur, but even if we quadruple the listed number to 8, we're still looking at an extremely small fatality subset in the overall fatality picture, and neither of the ones you mentioned involved a tail strike, which is the only wingsuit-related safety & training issue that is statistically and operationally significant, and thus deserving of some problem-solving attention.
fatalities by Y-E-A-R.JPG
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