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Considering downsizing?

 

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aphid  (D 535)

Jan 29, 2009, 11:13 AM
Post #1 of 69 (3357 views)
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Considering downsizing? Can't Post

I captured this footage mid-January.

<400 jumps total
205 lb exit weight
3rd jump on brand new elliptical 150 sq ft

Predictable result?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR6oQtWItwU

John


sparkie  (D License)

Jan 29, 2009, 11:27 AM
Post #2 of 69 (3297 views)
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Re: [aphid] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR6oQtWItwU

OUCH!!!! nasty! was he okay?


(This post was edited by sparkie on Jan 29, 2009, 11:28 AM)


aphid  (D 535)

Jan 29, 2009, 11:37 AM
Post #3 of 69 (3277 views)
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Re: [sparkie] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

He'll be paying the price for the next 4-6 months. If he had been less fortunate, I wouldn't have uploaded it.

John


ficus  (D 29186)

Jan 29, 2009, 11:40 AM
Post #4 of 69 (3272 views)
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Re: [aphid] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

Oh, how I hate to post in these downsizing threads.

But predictable? Not with only the information you provided. Loading at 1.36 is aggressive but not insane for 350-400 jumps.


Premier billvon  (D 16479)
Moderator
Jan 29, 2009, 11:41 AM
Post #5 of 69 (3268 views)
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Re: [ficus] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

>But predictable? Not with only the information you provided.

Pretty predictable, yes. Such incidents happen with depressing regularity.


phoenixlpr  (D 3049)

Jan 29, 2009, 11:41 AM
Post #6 of 69 (3268 views)
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Re: [aphid] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

In reply to:
I captured this footage mid-January.

<400 jumps total
205 lb exit weight
3rd jump on brand new elliptical 150 sq ft

Predictable result?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR6oQtWItwU

John
Do you have about his approach? I can spot some turning, but I could not identify the source. What I see that he failed to manage to swing back under the canopy for landing configuration. What canopy was he using? Was that a Katana?


ficus  (D 29186)

Jan 29, 2009, 11:45 AM
Post #7 of 69 (3259 views)
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Re: [billvon] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

In reply to:
>But predictable? Not with only the information you provided.

Pretty predictable, yes. Such incidents happen with depressing regularity.

Let's not devolve into semantics here, but I'll clarify.

Not predictable; neither surprising.


AggieDave  (D License)

Jan 29, 2009, 11:45 AM
Post #8 of 69 (3257 views)
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Re: [phoenixlpr] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

That looked like a Katana.

Too many people are caught up since its the "cool" canopy to jump and forget or ignore that it is the hottest open 9-cell on the market. The performance lines between an open 9-cell and a X-braced like the Velo were really blurred when the canopy was released.

The Katana is a great canopy, though. A no-joke swoop monster. Its just not a good canopy for someone to "learn to swoop" on. Its also not a good canopy for someone wanting the "cool gear." Its a great stepping stone between a Sabre2 and a Velo.


phoenixlpr  (D 3049)

Jan 29, 2009, 11:47 AM
Post #9 of 69 (3253 views)
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Re: [billvon] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

In reply to:
>But predictable? Not with only the information you provided.

Pretty predictable, yes. Such incidents happen with depressing regularity.
Sure. You can predict that someone is going to crash under a HP canopy if he is at least jumping a HP canopy....

I don't think that pure like jump number, WL ... etc can tell you if someone would crash on landing or not...


phoenixlpr  (D 3049)

Jan 29, 2009, 11:53 AM
Post #10 of 69 (3240 views)
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Re: [AggieDave] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

In reply to:
The Katana is a great canopy, though. A no-joke swoop monster. Its just not a good canopy for someone to "learn to swoop" on. Its also not a good canopy for someone wanting the "cool gear." Its a great stepping stone between a Sabre2 and a Velo.

I don't think that you can a long or negative recovery canopy for learning how to swoop.

A canopy with a fairly short recovery can be the best tool for practicing front riser turn landing upto 180 degrees rotation.

With other words: If someone can not execute a high speed landing into a lane using e.g. 180 rotation with front risers has no business with canopies of long recovery arc like Katana, Demon.....


Premier billvon  (D 16479)
Moderator
Jan 29, 2009, 12:33 PM
Post #11 of 69 (3205 views)
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Re: [ficus] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

>Not predictable; neither surprising.

Predictable. You can ask people's jump numbers, watch them downsize and predict who's going to end up in an incident report. Sadly, this even happens on the net, when all you can see is their attitude.


ficus  (D 29186)

Jan 29, 2009, 1:59 PM
Post #12 of 69 (3153 views)
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Re: [billvon] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

In reply to:
>Not predictable; neither surprising.

Predictable. You can ask people's jump numbers, watch them downsize and predict who's going to end up in an incident report. Sadly, this even happens on the net, when all you can see is their attitude.

All we saw in the OP was that the guy has "less than 400 jumps" (which I read to be high 300s), was loading an elliptical 150 at 1.36, and was very new to the canopy.

Of course if you knew the guy in person or had watched his landings before you could make a more educated guess that he was going to break himself.

But considering only the facts in the OP, this is just plain not an uncommon configuration of jump numbers and wingloading. I agree with you that injuries like this happen with depressing frequency, but there is a wide gap between that and "1.36 at 380 jumps, he's gonna pound in".

I mean, you can predict whatever you want, but we're talking about if you are significantly likely to be correct here in your prediction.


Chubba  (A 10160)

Jan 29, 2009, 4:07 PM
Post #13 of 69 (3106 views)
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Re: [aphid] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

Should have made SOME sort of attempt at a roll, sticking your legs out at that speed is Crazy

Ewwww, I really didn't need to watch that.


taylor.freefall  (A 52570)

Jan 29, 2009, 4:55 PM
Post #14 of 69 (3077 views)
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Re: [aphid] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

How come it didn't flare? I thought those canopies were supposed to have a really strong flare? Or are you supposed to do a gradual flare, rather than a normal (all in one) flare?


Chubba  (A 10160)

Jan 29, 2009, 5:02 PM
Post #15 of 69 (3068 views)
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Re: [taylor.freefall] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

The canopy was still in a dive from a speed inducing manoeuvre, it had not recovered back to normal flight.


Reginald  (D 28162)

Jan 29, 2009, 5:06 PM
Post #16 of 69 (3060 views)
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Re: [ficus] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

Jumping a Katana at <400 jumps even at about a 1.4 and yes likely the person is very likely going to pound in. The Katana is not just another elliptical. It's one hell of a hot canopy and not to be taken lightly.


taylor.freefall  (A 52570)

Jan 29, 2009, 5:07 PM
Post #17 of 69 (3058 views)
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Re: [Chubba] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

In reply to:
The canopy was still in a dive from a speed inducing manoeuvre, it had not recovered back to normal flight.

Ahhh, I see. I have zero experience of anything below a 230 canopy, although I like to think that one day I might have a 189 Crossfire 2?! Powerful flare being the most attractive quality.
And to all those concerned, don't worry, my 230 still feels like a Stiletto 60 - to me. No plans on downsizing anytime soon.


AggieDave  (D License)

Jan 29, 2009, 5:19 PM
Post #18 of 69 (3046 views)
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Re: [taylor.freefall] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

Even the 230 that you are jumping has a recovery arc. It just may not be as noticeable as a higher loaded canopy.

Try this out:

Go out on a hop-n-pop and clear your airspace (deploy out the door so you have canopy working time). Do a quick controllability check. Now, look up at your canopy, look where you are hanging between the line groups and in reference to the nose of the canopy. Flare while looking up at the canopy and see where you go under the canopy. (Continue to check your airspace and your location over the earth as well your altitude).

Now, really crank a toggle turn (after clearing your airspace) and watch where you go under canopy. Let up on the toggle and watch where you are under canopy.

That will give you an idea what is going on under the canopy. Now, if you have the altitude, crank out another toggle turn. Let the canopy recover on its own and see what it feels like in your leg straps. You will feel the dive, then more force in your leg straps as the canopy recovers.

Now do the same thing with the toggle turn, but after you crank the turn, flare HARD to arrest the dive.

Those quick drills will help show you a really basic example of the recovery arc. If we had a white-board I would draw my example, but this will get you started. Find a local canopy mentor to help you progress and learn.


pms07  (D 7571)

Jan 29, 2009, 6:41 PM
Post #19 of 69 (3013 views)
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Re: [AggieDave] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

Looks like that in spite of an apparently flawed approach he could have at least partially salvaged it had he realized it earlier. Difficult to decipher without seeing the entire approach but look at the late and partial flare.

When you are deep in the corner and approaching the ground at high-speed, pull down on the damn toggles, quickly and to the full range. No excuse for being there but it happens...doing everything you can to save yourself seems like a good idea at that point...

I'm going to agree with "predictable"...but I can live with "neither surprising" if that is prefered...Unsure


(This post was edited by pms07 on Jan 29, 2009, 6:44 PM)


JanuszPS  (D 568)

Jan 29, 2009, 7:37 PM
Post #20 of 69 (2989 views)
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Re: [aphid] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

In reply to:
[..]If he had been less fortunate, I wouldn't have uploaded it.
John
Why not? I don't understand and agree with that type of thinking. Allowing people to watch only those lucky ones, makes people (usually newbies) thinking that getting away from stupid stuff is a norm, when it isn't.
Before I did my first dive I watched lots of bad landings, accidents (in the air and ground) just to educate myself about the consequences of moving beyond the edge of the plane.
Also before moving to my current canopy I read and watched everything which could help me to asses the risk... Just for educational reason.
In my opinion it should be widely published each time it can work for guys as me...
Regards
Janusz
PS
As a side note as a Fire Safety Engineer I watched real movies from fires just for purpose of learning as nothing better describes the power, danger and consequences of fire than the pure objective (soulless) movie which can be analyzed frame after frame. But I have (a little bit) too engineering mind, so my view might be different.


(This post was edited by JanuszPS on Jan 29, 2009, 7:39 PM)


grimmie  (D 18890)

Jan 29, 2009, 8:24 PM
Post #21 of 69 (2968 views)
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Re: [taylor.freefall] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

How come it didn't flare?

Watch the video and try to stop it between 16-17 seconds. It looks like he was in a carving turn and on the front risers, letting them go WAY to low.
A Katana "hunts" the ground a bit more than other canopies. After just over a thousand leaps on a Stilletto I went to a Katana. It was hard to judge my landings the first 10-15 jumps on it. Sub 400 jump folks shouldn't be flying one. I'm glad he didn't kill himself or the other guy in the LZ.


CMiller  (B 30864)

Jan 29, 2009, 8:25 PM
Post #22 of 69 (2968 views)
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Re: [JanuszPS] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

In reply to:
In reply to:
[..]If he had been less fortunate, I wouldn't have uploaded it.
John
Why not? I don't understand and agree with that type of thinking. Allowing people to watch only those lucky ones, makes people (usually newbies) thinking that getting away from stupid stuff is a norm, when it isn't.

Really now, if he had been killed, you don't see why it wouldn't be posted? Seeing a video similar to this in which there was a fatality would not at all aid in safety or understanding, above what something like this shows.

I've never seen somebody die, or even directly witnessed an incident, yet I know enough to still be jumping a Triathlon loaded at .9.


grimmie  (D 18890)

Jan 29, 2009, 8:27 PM
Post #23 of 69 (2965 views)
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Re: [CMiller] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

I don't see some newbie watching that video thinking they could get away with doing same.
I would imagine he broke his back at minimum.Crazy


aphid  (D 535)

Jan 29, 2009, 9:06 PM
Post #24 of 69 (2952 views)
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Re: [grimmie] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

Absolutely correct Rich, on all counts from both your responses. That's why you're a first responder EMT firefighter... and a surviving experienced jumper.

I'm stunned that some people still can't make sound decisions when faced with just the simple evidence.

John


(This post was edited by aphid on Jan 29, 2009, 9:28 PM)


popsjumper  (D 999999999)

Jan 30, 2009, 5:22 AM
Post #25 of 69 (2878 views)
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Re: [ficus] Considering downsizing? [In reply to] Can't Post

In reply to:
...But considering only the facts in the OP, this is just plain not an uncommon configuration of jump numbers and wingloading. I agree with you that injuries like this happen with depressing frequency...

I mean, you can predict whatever you want, but we're talking about if you are significantly likely to be correct here in your prediction.

Given the information highlighted in bold, I'd totally agree that Bill is significantly likely to be correct. How many injuries do YOU need to consider what is "significant"?

In reply to:
...but there is a wide gap between that and "1.36 at 380 jumps, he's gonna pound in".

That's not what Bill said.


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