Forums: Skydiving: General Skydiving Discussions: Re: [drewcarp] Parents With Young Children: Edit Log

DrewEckhardt  (D 28461)

Nov 12, 2012, 6:57 PM

Views: 2364
Re: [drewcarp] Parents With Young Children

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\Statistically speaking you have a 1 in 50 chance of not living to see a 2 year old's college graduation (assuming you don't get killed in a skydiving related plane crash which is a separate issue).

How does the math work on that? Just curious and numbers challenged.

USPA membership is required to jump at most drop zones, especially turbine ones where lots of jumps occur so we can assume that its 30,000 member total is a good approximation for the number of skydivers in the US.

Annual US fatalities average about 30, or one skydiver in 1000.

For those small odds repeating the annual skydiving experience makes your career odds about # of years / 1000.

People "should" graduate from college in 4-5 years which is around age 22 and 20 years from now for a 2 year old son.

20 in 1000 is 1 in 50.

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You could cut your risk in half if you fly a big canopy that you don't swoop and even more if you aren't a dumb fuck.

1. "Big" is a relative term. These days many (most?) people think it includes canopies loaded at 1.2 pounds per square foot (permitted for skydivers with 200 jumps under Brian Germain's formula). It's still enough to kill you, especially with non-rectangular wings that like to dive when given some control input.

2. The incident reports are filled with "not hook turn type people" that were generally conservative under canopy and just didn't know what to do once they got in an unusual situation.

For example: 1.2 pound/square foot loading, Stiletto 150, 480 jumps, not swooping, dead anyways.

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Numbers are for land lubbers. So much more goes into the equation (bad pun).

The numbers are reasonable evidence suggesting that skydiving is not safe, perhaps to the same degree as riding motorcycles on the street. For some people at some points in their lives that's entirely acceptable. For some it's not. The people between the two points should take appropriate measures to make it safer for them and/or provide for their heirs if it doesn't work out.

(This post was edited by DrewEckhardt on Nov 12, 2012, 7:00 PM)

Edit Log:
Post edited by DrewEckhardt () on Nov 12, 2012, 6:58 PM
Post edited by DrewEckhardt () on Nov 12, 2012, 6:59 PM
Post edited by DrewEckhardt () on Nov 12, 2012, 7:00 PM

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