Re: [diablopilot] learning to freefly/backfly in tunnel
So I think this is the situation, the OP said they were sticking to the tunnel because it was safer than skydiving.
You wanted to let her know that risks are still involved, which is true. (there are no risk free activities in life). And the risks are still significant and from your experience and second hand knowledge(which then you discount others second hand knowledge) you have come to see. One can understand where you are coming from, I think we all agree it is better to prepare for the worst and have the respect to understand and mitigate the risks involved than to undersell the risk and have someone get hurt because they track into a glass wall at 100MPH.
I agree that I do not have the experience to know each specific risk, and how to mitigate them and reduce the risk for myself or others, and experience is a key factor. I also agree that your experience is superior in this respect, put each of us in the tunnel and throw potentially dangerous situations at us, and my money would be on you better able to react, recover and reduce the risk. But that was not the point of this endeavor.
But it is absolutely possible to compare different, and semi related activities to asses the risk between them. That is why motorcycle insurance on a per basis number is more expensive than car insurance, because on an aggregate level it has proven to be a riskier activity. Its why we can deem smoking long term has higher risk related to it than not smoking.
It is also why people can say that wingsuit base jumping is riskier than skydiving. Or XRW is risker than just skydiving. Or that stock A has a higher risk than Treasury bonds etc.
Also look at the money, it is easier to finance a new tunnel than a dropzone, because the banks lending the money see lower risk in losing their investment. It is also why it is cheaper for a tunnel to get insurance than a dropzone. Also the children factor, look at how many more children are in tunnels than in the sky, it would simply not be insurable if the risks were the same, or if the risks were actually the same, there should be children 5 years old skydiving.
Experience is not needed to calculate risk, if that were the case every insurance actuary would need to experience each event they are insuring. You don't have to have smoked for 20 years to know what the risk is. Experience is key in mitigating risk, and I can assure you, that your ability to mitigate risk both in the sky and in the tunnel far exceeds mine. But it is not a prerequisite for calculation. Calculating risk between different activities, or investments is what the insurance/finance business is all about.
I said I couldn't use numbers because I don't have access to information regarding non fatal tunnel injuries, and to make a quality assessment you would need other variables such as number of participants, participant minutes etc to truly get a value to determine the actual risk of the activity. But you don't have those numbers either. Also it is highly improbable that two activities would have equal risk. Even jumping at different dropzones have different risks involved, so saying they are the same would raise a red-flag there. The other variable to look at besides frequency of injury would be severity. Once again without numbers available it is difficult for anyone to make a definitive point, yet we do know there are around 20-30 deaths from skydiving each year while deaths in the tunnel occur with less frequency. Now I agree those numbers mean little without knowing the frequency of activity (far more DZ's than tunnels etc.) But you haven't don't that analysis either.
At the end of the day I stand by my claim that the tunnel is on a per incidence basis safer, and severity of injuries occur safer than actual skydiving. If you can provide statistical analysis to disprove that, then we are just going to have to agree to disagree.
I do fully agree with your point, that there is risk, you can get injured and killed in the tunnel, and if you aren't aware of the risks and take care to mitigate them you can end up one of our statistics...
(This post was edited by Austintxflight on Feb 13, 2012, 1:31 PM)